Pattern Change??? Snow chances in the East???

[Guest]

Seems to be more and more support for a long awaited pattern change across the US! As of late the models are now running with the colder temps in the east and the west warming back up? Looking at the 00z GFS/EURO tonight shows what could be a possible couple of snowevents (Trough in the east)in the next week or two for the OH Valley, Mid-Atlantic and the NE begining tomorrow with the system thats gonna be first bringing rain to the OH Valley and Eastcoast but areas from the apps on west into the OH Valley should see the rain change on over to snow tomorrow night and Friday morning and possibly give some areas outside the Lakes (LES)/Higher elevations in the OH Valley thier first accumulating snow event of the season..........Western PA/ Western NY should do fairly well from this event and as well the LES areas. More so the NE/OH Valley should have the best shots at some snow and cold in the next week or two perhaps. Questions is it to be believed? Tomorrows system looks to be almost a lock in but as normal and especially with the GFS honking this imo needs to be watched closely because other factors are starting to support this as well. If it was only the GFS i wouldnt give it as much hope. Anyways hopefully nobody will be suprised come Friday morning when they wake up and see snow in the areas i just mentioned above in the Lakes, OH Valley, Apps from NC/TN North and the NE west of i95 of course. As far as the NAO/PNA go it seems the PNA should be headed back towards neutural and the NAO to be in the slightly Negavtie phase but perhaps a bigger drop into the negative area after next week???? I myself have been having a hard time with these because as of late (Untill a couple of days ago) these have been back and forth but i do believe which i seen as well posted in another thread here by RNS/SF (who i do think will support this)the Atlantic and Pacific SSTA seem to support this as well. Either way this is something i think most in the east will be happy to see!

Wanted to add that this pattern so far is up to par with my Winter Outlook and as well the up comming (possible pattern change) would pretty much keep it going with the exception perhaps along the i95 corridor which when i did the outlook didnt support any long lasting Trough/Storm Track/Snow (as is beeing hinted at) yet in these areas untill Mid December. We will see however!!!!

Comments welcomed?

[Tip]

There seems to be good model consensus that the eastern US will get a couple of cold shots in the near term, however I'm not convinced that these troughs are anything but transient. To get a real locked in pattern change, I would like to see the polar vortex drop more SE and some blocking develop upstream (negative NAO). Until the European model (my choice for consistency) comes on board with this feature, I don't think any east coast trough will lock in. At ten days, the Euro still has the PV over Alaska and a fast zonal flow over CONUS.

http://www.sca.uqam.ca/models/ecmwf_ame ... _0500.html

Just an opinion.

[LehighValleyForcaster]

Hi King,

I believe the Ohio Valley will see more snow, this year, then the Northeast.

Your region continues to have more of the cold troughs running through that will give your region a greater chance for those snow events.

The Northeast on the other hand will continue to see those milder temps.

We are closer to the Atlantic and the warm waters continue to move North and will continue to keep our region in a more milder condition.

Unless the water cools down.........I don't expect much of a winter for the Northeast this year.