Winter Weather!
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
Winter Weather!
WHEN WILL THE TROF COME EAST AND THE MID-ATLANTICS AND THE NORTHEAST GET ACTUAL WINTER... ANY PREDICTED DATES..
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CaptinCrunch
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donsutherland1
- S2K Analyst
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Re: Winter Weather!
At this time, I believe that no trough will lock in in the East for at least the next 10-15 days and likely longer. I expect that the pattern evolution will be a slow one and that troughing will be transient for at least a time. Hence, there will be significant variability in temperatures with bouts of above normal readings and some with below normal readings.
As for the first 10 days of December, I believe the eastern U.S. will likely see readings average near normal to somewhat above normal.
As for the "battle of analogs" that has captured some imaginations--perhaps I'm exaggerating a bit when I say "some" imaginations--after looking back at past pattern evolutions, I believe the really decisive period will not be the December 10-20 period but rather the December 21-31 period.
The December 10-20 period could offer hints but it could also be a somewhat temporary deviation if history is of any guidance. The latter period has a better chance at seeing patterns evolve into a more predictable fashion with regard to the winter as a whole.
For now, based on SSTAs, it looks as if a number of winter forecasts remain on track e.g., an unseasonably warm winter does not appear to be in the cards for the eastern U.S. Odds also continue to lean more toward decent but not extraordinary snowfall.
As for the first 10 days of December, I believe the eastern U.S. will likely see readings average near normal to somewhat above normal.
As for the "battle of analogs" that has captured some imaginations--perhaps I'm exaggerating a bit when I say "some" imaginations--after looking back at past pattern evolutions, I believe the really decisive period will not be the December 10-20 period but rather the December 21-31 period.
The December 10-20 period could offer hints but it could also be a somewhat temporary deviation if history is of any guidance. The latter period has a better chance at seeing patterns evolve into a more predictable fashion with regard to the winter as a whole.
For now, based on SSTAs, it looks as if a number of winter forecasts remain on track e.g., an unseasonably warm winter does not appear to be in the cards for the eastern U.S. Odds also continue to lean more toward decent but not extraordinary snowfall.
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