Late evening update on winter storm...11-22-03

[WXBUFFJIM]

Good evening everyone. Some big contrasts in temperature today. A 1000 millibar low pressure system has formed over southeast Colorado. A stationary frontal boundary extends from the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandle north and eastward to central Missouri. Big changes in temperatures are occurring on either side of the boundary. For example, Chicago reached 55 today fora daytime high, St Louis 67, Springfield, Missouri 70 degrees, and Little Rock reached a daytime high of 76 degrees, which was a new record high for this date. On the other hand high temps didn't get out of the 20s in Denver and never surpassed the freezing mark in Minnepolis St Paul. It reached 46 in Davenport, Iowa this afternoon and it was the same around 46 degrees in Kansas City.

As for snowfall amounts so far, Denver has seen 2-4 inches in the city so far. However Littleton just southwest of Denver saw 5 inches of snow. Some places such as Estas Park and Fort Collins received 8-10 inches of snow so far. While the worse of the snow maybe over for Denver, snow showers are possible overnight and an additional light accumulation cannot be ruled out, especially in the mountains west and northwest of Denver. Othe snow totals include some significant amounts. Four Corners, Wyoming received up to 16 inches of snow. Madison, Minnesota received about 10 inches and Rapid City, SD seen close to a foot of snow so far. St Cloud, Minnesota has seen a few inches of snow so far and Maple Grove, MN where Jeff Morrow is stationed has received about 1 inch of fluffy snow. However snow in Minnesota and surrounding areas is expected to only pick up in intensity overnight tonight and that will last into Sunday as well. Combine the heavy snow with strong winds sustained at 25-35mph with gusts to 50 mph will result in blizzard conditions tomorrow through tomorrow evening for Minneapolis St Paul and Duluth, Minnesota.

The forecast snowfall timing and snowfall amounts are as follows on the cold side of this winter storm. Expect snowfall to develop tonight for Omaha, Nebraska, Minnepolis St Paul, Duluth, and Marquette, Michigan tonight. Snow should gradually end in Omaha tomorrow night, and end in Minnepolis and Duluth sometime on Monday. By the time this storm system is all said and done, expect 5-10 inches of snow in Omaha, Nebraska, 8-14 inches of snow in Maple Grove and Minnepolis, Minnesota, 10-20 inches in Duluth, Minnesota and likewise in Marquette, Michigan. Some places near and to the south of the south shore of Lake Superior could see upward of 2 feet of snow from this storm. Lake enhanced snow combined with heavy system snow will likely enhance the amounts for Duluth and Marquette, that's why the higher amounts are progged.

Even though the above mentioned cities will get nailed by heavy snow, rain will change over to snow in places like Des Moines, Iowa, Davenport, iowa, and St Louis, Missouri. 2-3 inches of snow is expectedin Des Moines Sunday night into Monday am. Davenport and St Louis will likely see a dusting to 1-2 inches. Winds will be howling in all of these areas. Any snow that sticks will be blowing and drifting around and thus blizzard conditions is a guarantee. I would not be surprised at all in the winter storm warning areas from Omaha northeastward into Duluth that blizzard warnings could be established. The official classification for a blizzard is sustained winds 35 mph or higher for a 3 hour consecutive period. Wind gusts will likely exceed 35 mph. So at least occasional whiteout conditions can be expected. Dangerous travel tomorrow through Monday. Don't travel unless you absolutely have to from Omaha, through Minnepolis, and Duluth. Airports, roads, and schools could be shut over the next day or two.

Stay tuned for more insight on this storm as the hours tick by. In the meantime, good night and stay safe tonight folks.

Jim

[rainstorm]

thanks