BLIZZARD BLIZZ!!! 11-22-03 late am analysis.....

[WXBUFFJIM]

Good morning everyone. The first topic worth mentioning is the temperature contrasts across the United States this morning. St Louis is a warm balmy 60 degrees with overcast skies. Meanwhile Kansas City is only 38, Quad Cities 43, Minneapolis 30, Grand Island 29, and Denver 25 degrees. Some of the colder spots include Cut Bank, Montana at 11 below zero, and Edmonton is a very brutal 20 degrees below zero with clear skies.

The second topic deals with snowfall history and climotology for the central and midwestern United States. In Denver, CO, only a trace of snow fell this season. Omaha, Nebraska saw no snow this season. Minnepolis, Minnesota received 2 inches of the white stuff this fall season while Duluth in Minnesota's arrowhead received 12.6 inches of snow. The normal for Duluth from July 1st to now is 11.9 inches. We'll see alot more snow in all four of these cities and communities in between today through Monday. That combined with strong gusty winds and brutally cold temperatures will create dangerous winds chills and blizzard conditions. This storm will be a full fledged blizzard in the midwest and central plains, I'll say that right now.

The weather synopsis: Surface low presure at 1004 millibars is moving through the central rockies at this time. The surface low will deepen tonight over the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles, then race northeast towards the western Great Lakes Sunday night. Areas north and west of this low will see the heaviest snowfall accumulation with higher totals in the western Lakes as the surface low maxes out in intensity. A trailing cold front will likely result in severe weather Sunday afternoon and evening from eastern Missouri and Illinois southward into western Tennessee and Arkansas. This severe weather episode at this point does not appear to be widespread in nature. However lightning, heavy rain, and damaging winds are all possible with this front followed by a huge temperature change for everybody east of the Mississippi River except Florida for the Thanksgiving holiday.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/wwa/ shows the current status with our advisories, watches, and warnings. A winter weather advisory is in effect for Denver. 4-8 inches of snow is expected in Denver tonight with 16-24 inches west of Denver in the orographically favored areas. Steamboat Springs, Colorado is expecting up to 2 feet of snow from this storm. Great skiing weather, not great to drive in it obviously.

From tonight through Sunday, snowfall amounts will range from 5-10 inches in Omaha, 8-14 inches in Minnepolis and 10-20 inches in Duluth. Some places in the western Great Lakes region could see up to 2 feet of snow with drifts up to 3-6 feet tonight through Monday morning. Folks planning to travel in the Minnepolis area and Duluth may want to think twice about that, especially if we see 1-2 inch per hour snowfall rates combine with 40-60 mph gusts. That's a full fledge blizzard ladies and gentlemen. What makes this storm so interesting is the Kansas City Chiefs, the Denver Broncos, Green Bay Packers, and the Minnesota Vikings are all home this weekend and all four cities will see wicked weather. It may even snow in Green Bay later in the game tomorrow as rain changes over to snow. Same applies in Davenport, Chicago, and Des Moines. Even St Louis could see a snow shower before the precip shuts off there.

That's it for this time. I will post another update on this storm later this evening. Have a good afternoon.

Jim

[wx247]

Hey Jim... how far south do you see the accumulating snows going?

[WXBUFFJIM]

I do see the potential for a light accumulation of snow in Kansas City Sunday afternoon and possibly a dusting in St Louis. Certainly parts of Missouri,particularly the northwestern part of the state and north of interstate 70 could see snow showers with light accumulation in spots before the precip shuts off Sunday night. This includes places such as St Joesph and also Kirksville, Missouri. Wind gusts of 30-45 mph are likely in this area also. So any snow will first fall horizontally and possibly blow around if accumulation becomes a problem. A huge temperature change is forecast on Sunday for allof Missouri, I'll promise you that.

Jim

[Colin]

I'm just getting more and more jealous...