Winter storm analysis, November 22nd, 2003

[WXBUFFJIM]

Good morning everyone. A wild weekend for the central United States and especially from the upper midwest into the western Great Lakes Region where winter weather advisories, winter storm watches and warnings are all in place. St Cloud is underneath a winter storm warning and likewise Duluth. Minneapolis and St Paul are under winter storm watches. A winter weather advisory is in effect for Grand Island, Nebraska and Denver, Colorado. There are no severe thunderstorm or tornado weather watches or warnings in effect at this time. However severe weather in the form of damaging wind gusts are possible tomorrow afternoon and evening as the cold front trailing behind the developing surface low moves quickly through the midwest and middle Mississippi Valley.

Part of the reason for this developing storm includes #1 a moisture and temperature contrast across the nation. For example high temperatures in Washington DC and St Louis will reach the lower 70s today with dewpoint readings ranging from around 45 in Washington DC and about 50 in St Louis. However behind the front, temperatures and dewpoints drop significantly. The high temperature in the Quad Cities and Chicago will remain in the upper 40s today. Minneapolis will stay around freezing today for highs. Bismarcks high will be 13 above zero with a wind chill of -2 to -5 and dewpoints below zero. Meanwhile if you want an even colder spot, head to Glasgow, Montana and Edmonton, Canada. Both places will see high temperatures today and tomorrow range from 5 above to 5 below zero with wind chills 10-20 below zero. Overnight lows will be 15-25 degrees below zero in this area. A huge temperature contrast, which is just one reason why this cyclogenesis as we call it in meteorology will develop over the nations heartland. It's areas north and west of the developing surface low where the heavy snow will accumulate and blow around considerably. Meanwhile areas south and east of the surface low will likely see showers and strong thunderstorms, some possibly severe on Sunday afternoon and evening.

This system will be enhanced by strong upper level support. The moisture moving north from the Gulf Of Mexico as it hits the frontal boundary over central Missouri, the warmer air is forced up and over that surface boundary. Thus areas north and west of the boundary and surface low will see overrunning precipitation in the form of snow as this warmer air aloft relatively speaking overrides the colder surface.

Timing of this winter weather brings the heaviest snow into Nebraska, western Iowa, southeast South Dakota,and most of Minnesota by later this afternoon and evening. The western Great Lakes region will see heavy snow begin tonight and it will pile up Sunday through early Monday. All of this snow will be accompanied by very gusty winds. Thus blizzard conditions are likely in all these locations.

Snowfall amounts will range from 5-10 inches in Grand Island and Omaha, nebraska, 6-8 inches in Denver, 6-12 inches in Minnepolis and 10-20 inches of snow in Duluth, Minnesota. Some places in Michigan's upper Peninsula could see up to 2 feet of the white stuff. This combined with wind sustained at 20-30 mph with gusts 35-50 mph will result in considerable blowing snow. Snow drifts will likely be 3-5 feet high in some spots. Certainly not a good idea to travel anywhere from Denver, Colorado up through Minneapolis St Paul, Minnesota. If folks can avoid travel late today through Monday morning, you may have made a right decision. If travel is neccessary, accomplish it early today or wait until later in the day Monday across the central plains and the upper midwest because traveling may become impossible during the day on Sunday. Some roads maybe shut, schools and business will likely be shut tomorrow and Monday, and some airports could even have serious delays or be shut altogether. So a crippling snowstorm in some areas and blizzard conditions also.

Another update on this storm will be issued later this morning!!!

Jim

[wx247]

Very good analysis Jim. I am looking forward to your next update.

[rainstorm]

excellent

[WXBUFFJIM]

Hey Rainstorm, keep an eye on the nfl tomorrow. Some wicked games coming up. I wonder if the vikings/lions game in Minnepolis will be suspended due to this dangerous weather tomorrow. 12 inches plus with blizzard conditions is not to be messed around with. Somefolks might not be able to see in front of their car hoods.

Jim

[Colin]

I am sooo jealous of them. While they are getting blizzards, I'm going to be outside playing football in 65° weather...