Winter Outlooks - More Than Just El Nino

[CaptinCrunch]

Winter Outlooks - More Than Just El Nino
7AM EST, November 8, 2003


Weather folklore has long fascinated people whose livelihood depended on the weather. For centuries farmers used signals from animals, plants and celestial bodies to divine a forecast for the upcoming winter, but in recent times the interest in such "folk" forecasts has surged dramatically.
There is absolutely no scientific evidence that shows these folklore forecasts are accurate or possible. It is much more logical that such signals simply respond to past weather patterns. However, interest in such lore continues.

No matter what means you use, attempts to forecast day-to-day weather
beyond about two weeks in advance are largely futile. Every year, several almanacs issue winter outlooks, often with specific forecasts for specific days. These factors are based on a wide assortment of
factors, from the behavior of woolly bear caterpillars to numbers of acorns to cycles of planets and the sun. One bit of folklore states that when woolly bear caterpillars in one`s location have more black than brown/orange segments, the winter will be harsher than usual.

From 1948 to 1955, biologist Charles Curran ran the only scientific study ever performed to test this hypothesis. Curran gave up when he discovered two groups of caterpillars living close to each other that had nearly opposite predictions for the upcoming winter. The colorful panoply of weather folklore also includes the idea that several signals together - a bumper crop of acorns, as well as animals putting on heavy coats or storing food earlier than usual - mean a more severe winter.

The legend surrounding Groundhog Day is based on a similar kind of lore.
Supposedly if the sun shines on February 2nd, with the groundhog thus seeing its shadow, there will be six more weeks of winter. It is more likely to be sunny during wintertime in the U.S. when there is a cold
arctic air mass versus a warmer one, but these cold snaps typically last a few days and have little connection to long-term weather conditions. Groundhog Day survives today mainly because it is a fun tradition that generates a lot of media attention.

Even when forecasts are based on more widely studied meteorological factors, they run into a fundamental limitation. Dr. Edward Lorenz from MIT showed that forecasts are highly sensitive to the current conditions, e.g. the temperatures, wind and pressure. Lorenz showed that when weather forecast models are run, small errors in observations and short -term forecasts become multiplied.

When we look at day-to-day model forecasts out to around two weeks in the future, no matter how good the model is, the errors grow so large that the models produce no better forecasts than would flipping a coin.
The National Weather Service issues its long-range outlooks in terms of
probability, e.g. there is a 65% chance that temperature will be above normal in December. However, when media meteorologists issue their interpretation of such outlooks, a high probability of above normal temperatures is often translated into "temperatures will be much above normal".

However, the situation is not as bleak as Lorenz may have envisioned.
Meteorologists have been making long-range outlooks (beyond 2 weeks into the future) regularly since the 1960s. The National Weather Service issues forecasts going out 12 months in advance. Their outlook for this winter (Dec-Feb) is the thumbnail image for this story.

All in all, a successful winter outlook requires a careful assessment of several climate factors that tend to cycle back and forth over time. The challenge is that our ability to gauge when these cycles will flip and how they will interact is relatively limited.

About 72% of the world is water and on a typical day, only 1100 ships and
buoys submit weather reports. That`s 1 weather report for about every
130,000 square miles of water.

On land, there are 6000 official World Meteorological Organization weather
stations throughout the world, while AWS WeatherNet stations number about 6500 in the U.S. and southern Canada. That`s 1 weather report for every 15,000 square miles of land.

[azsnowman]

You know.....I have preached and TRULY believe in animal behavior as one method of predicting the winter. My wife and I own a business called Arizona Mountain Environmental Services....we do commerical landscape maintenance ALONG with environmental impact studies and environmental assessments. The enviro studies and assessments takes us out in the boon docks, sticks etc., so we see first hand animal behavior and study it...I hold more credence in animal behavior than I do ANY computer models.

Dennis

[weatherluvr]

I've read stories of some animals gathering unusually large deposits of food before severe winters, so I definitely think there's something to it. They definitely have a "sixth sense" about such things as bad storms, cold waves, and earthquakes that should be researched more.

[tomboudreau]

[quote]The legend surrounding Groundhog Day is based on a similar kind of lore.
Supposedly if the sun shines on February 2nd, with the groundhog thus seeing its shadow, there will be six more weeks of winter. It is more likely to be sunny during wintertime in the U.S. when there is a cold
arctic air mass versus a warmer one, but these cold snaps typically last a few days and have little connection to long-term weather conditions. Groundhog Day survives today mainly because it is a fun tradition that generates a lot of media attention.
[/quote]

As a person living in Punxsutawney, PA., I can give you a first hand account about groundhog day and I can tell you, its just a way to bring ppl into this tiny little town in Western PA. Every where you look, a groundhog is somewhere hanging around town. The groundhog lives in part of the public library, where it doesnt even live up on Gobblers Knob. By noon on groundhog day, the town is vacated. Just the locals remain. When the "holiday" falls on the weekend, there are move events planned around town. But during the week, no one stays around. Just my few observations from around town on Feb. 2. FYI...no, I havent gone up to the Knob to see them pull the groundhog out of the stump and I probably won't go either. Who in the right mind would be up at 7AM and stand outside in freezing cold anyway?? Not me. I would rather stay in my nice warm bed and get a couple extra hours of sleep.

[CaptinCrunch]

When I think of "Groundhog Day" I can only think of Bill Murray, being stuck in Punxsutawney. That was such a great movie!!!