SUBMIT YOUR QUESTIONS-For Q & A with Keith Allen

[WEATHER53]

Submit on this thread. I will not be pullling question from any prior threads. Thanks

[wwxman]

What is KA's confidence level in his winter forecast this year? Out of 100%, what is the chance that snowfall will be above normal? Temps below normal? How does this confidence level compare with past winters?

[WEATHER53]

What is KA's confidence level in his winter forecast this year? Out of 100%, what is the chance that snowfall will be above normal? Temps below normal? How does this confidence level compare with past winters?

30% chance of above normal snowfall.
30% chance below normal temps.

He feels as confident as usual as so far everything is falling into place, weather patterns have changed for the first time in a year.

[Guest]

Does KA have any ideas on West of the Apps? If so what is his confindence level there? (Ohio)

[mdstorm]

What was the primary analog for the winter forecast of 95-96?
Also, does the apparent wet November this fall (Nov. 1979 was dry) change your outlook for the upcoming winter ?

Thanks and congratulations on your excellent forecasting record.
mdstorm

[WEATHER53]

Does KA have any ideas on West of the Apps? If so what is his confindence level there? (Ohio)

He does not issue seasonal forecasts for that region.

[Constructionwx]

Hello Mr Allen,
I'll cut to the chase..
How will the SE States fare in the snow fall category this winter?

Thanks,

[Guest]

Ok........When did KA first get into seasonal forecasting for the DC metro area?

[Constructionwx]

Also....
Do you think there will be wild swings in temps this winter?

[WEATHER53]

What was the primary analog for the winter forecast of 95-96?
Also, does the apparent wet November this fall (Nov. 1979 was dry) change your outlook for the upcoming winter ?

Thanks and congratulations on your excellent forecasting record.
mdstorm

For 95-96 the analog was 57-58.
November was drier than normal until today at DCA, so many other factors this year have mirrored 1979 that the wet November does not take away. He follows the ripple effect from earlier in the eyars and does not pay much emphasis on events in October and November as to reevaluating his position.

[WEATHER53]

Hello Mr Allen,
I'll cut to the chase..
How will the SE States fare in the snow fall category this winter?

Thanks,

Minimal costal activity, look for late winter snowfall in VA?NC while DC remains cold and dry

[wxid]

What are the prerequisites for big (bigger than 4-6") snows on the lower Delmarva and Norfolk area ? Usually , it seems, the Bay and Ocean and 2nd lows combine to wash us out with the changeover to rain. Thanks you.

[WEATHER53]

Ok........When did KA first get into seasonal forecasting for the DC metro area?

1980 with just a few friends having knowledge of, more public by 1988 and media involved since 1994.

[WEATHER53]

Also....
Do you think there will be wild swings in temps this winter?

Wild swings in Jan and Feb, more persistent cold in Jan. December still mild.

[Guest]

Ok........When did KA first get into seasonal forecasting for the DC metro area?

1980 with just a few friends having knowledge of, more public by 1988 and media involved since 1994.

Thanks.........Wanted to make sure i was correct because i do remember hearing of him back then believe it or not!

So you dont believe the call for El.Nino (Declared Weak by Jan) will have any affect on your winter outlook? And whats your thoughts as we head into December for the DC area?

[WEATHER53]

What are the prerequisites for big (bigger than 4-6") snows on the lower Delmarva and Norfolk area ? Usually , it seems, the Bay and Ocean and 2nd lows combine to wash us out with the changeover to rain. Thanks you.

High pressue over Ontario or western Quesbec and a low that is not so strong as to overwhelm with mild ari with the track of the low thru southern north carolina and the track off the coast by 50 miles and no closer than 50

[WEATHER53]

Ok........When did KA first get into seasonal forecasting for the DC metro area?

1980 with just a few friends having knowledge of, more public by 1988 and media involved since 1994.

Thanks.........Wanted to make sure i was correct because i do remember hearing of him back then believe it or not!

So you dont believe the call for El.Nino (Declared Weak by Jan) will have any affect on your winter outlook? And whats your thoughts as we head into December for the DC area?

Yes it will be decalred in Jan but it will be too late to have any effect. December mild.

[VanceWxMan]

What are you views on the GFS model? Also what model do you prefere when making your forecast?

Aaron

[Constructionwx]

Hello Mr Allen,
I'll cut to the chase..
How will the SE States fare in the snow fall category this winter?

Thanks,

Minimal costal activity, look for late winter snowfall in VA?NC while DC remains cold and dry

Your looking for a persistant trof over E 1/3 Conus thru mid february'ish?

[Stormsfury]

Does KA believe that this upcoming winter will feature no real prolonged warm or cold spells (thus a lot of variability)?

SF