Questions & Answers with Keith Allen

[WEATHER53]

Will occur on Storm2k this upcoming week. Generally the forum will be I will advertise a day and time about 24 hours in advance and we will field questions at the start time and answer as many questions as we can during the approximately one half hour "interview". Most likley this will occur on Wednesday or Thursday evening around 7pm. We will start taking questions at the start time and will not field any questions prior to that. Questions not germaine to weather or of a confrontational nature will not be responded to and we reserve editiorial choice on what is responded to. This is a chance for many of you to get direct answers from him to any weather questions you may have. We will not be setting up a new screen name but he and I will be at an internet location where he can respond thru my log-on identification. Looking forward to this and hope it is well received by all.

[vbhoutex]

Sounds awesome Weather53!! You might want to let the "general public" that reads here know a little about Keith and what he does. I look forward to questioning him if I can make at that time.

Admins I changed this to a sticky so it will stay at the top.

[Colin]

Sounds awesome!!!!!!! Great idea Wx53!!!

[ColdFront77]

Should we all know who Keith Allen is?

[Stormsfury]

Should we all know who Keith Allen is?

Tom, Keith Allen is a met from DC whom has had a lot of success in long range winter forecasting in the past few years ...

(From the Charlotte Observer) -- this is an archived article ... Keith Allen is featured and also DT (WxRisk.Com)

Another bad winter on the way?
Cold snap raises concern about keeping warm in coming months
JAIME LEVY AND STEVE LYTTLE
Staff Writers

Frost covered the ground Tuesday morning atop Flat Top Mountain in Watauga County and could coat lawns across parts of the Piedmont on Friday morning.

Lows across the Piedmont and Foothills should dip into the 30s late in the week.

And with memories of last winter's bitter weather, you might be wondering: Is another bad winter on its way?

At least some meteorologists who specialize in long-range forecasts think we're facing another season of snow, ice and cold.

Joe Bastardi, of Pennsylvania-based Accu-Weather, expects winter trouble for those in the eastern third of the United States.

Until Thanksgiving, fall will be relatively mild, said Bastardi, who bases his long-range forecasts on factors including ocean water temperatures and the relationship of summer tropical storm formation to winter weather.

"A rather sudden turn to colder will probably get under way the last week of November," he said.

Sharing that opinion is Joe D'Aleo, a meteorologist with another private firm, Intellicast. He predicts a cold and snowy winter, especially in December and the first part of January, along the East Coast.

Some energy watchers are predicting upswings in natural gas prices -- exacerbated by the slightly low gas supplies left over from last year's high demand. Charlotte-based Eric Sayman, vice president of sales for Texican Natural Gas, said storage levels are now about 2 to 3 percent lower than the five-year average.

"This past year, it was just cold November, December, January, February, March. Storage started out full and ended up empty," Sayman said. "If it's a cold rather than normal winter, we would expect gas prices to spike."

Predicted jumps in natural gas prices, as well as chilly forecasts, are already playing into sales at Lowe's Home Improvement, said spokeswoman Chris Ahearn.

Since August, she said, stores are selling more alternative heating sources, such as wood stoves and vent-free gas logs.

It's nearly impossible for clothing retailers to predict unseasonable weather, as buyers order merchandise up to a year in advance, said Belk company spokesman Steve Pernotto. And it's even harder to plan for extremes, like last winter's ice storm.

"It's one of those works of nature," he said. "If you plan for it and it doesn't happen, you lose. If you don't plan for it and it happens, you lose."

Barring one of those major events, chilly winter weather often means good news for retailers, said Britt Beemer, chairman of America's Research Group, a consumer research company.

"Cold weather coming in at the right time in fall can help make Christmas," Beemer said. "Winter coats become popular. Sweaters become a necessary item. ... It's kind of hard when it's 65 degrees outside to think Christmas is coming in three weeks."

But before you rush out to buy snow shovels and salt, consider this: The National Weather Service doesn't hold much faith in long-range forecasts.

"Once you get beyond seven days or so, it becomes rather inexact," said Scott Krentz of the National Weather Service office in Greer, S.C.

The closest we get to an "official" long-range forecast comes from the National Climate Data Center, which issues predictions of up to 90 days. Those indicate near-normal temperatures and precipitation into early January.

And Keith Allen, a District of Columbia meteorologist whose long-range winter forecasts were quite accurate the past three or four years, is calling for near-normal conditions in the East.

There is one area of agreement among nearly all forecasters: The current cold snap will relent early next week, and at least most of this autumn will be mild across the Southeast.

"That's also the outlook from the (National Climate Data Center)," Krentz said.

In the short range, Krentz said, we'll need jackets and sweaters in the morning hours.

"Our temperatures will remain well below normal until early next week," he said.

The Farmers Almanac forecasts a cold and snowy winter across the eastern United States -- especially in February and March. The almanac, which claims 80 percent accuracy in its forecasts, correctly pegged last winter's nastiness.

The other long-range "specialist," the woolly worm, hasn't been heard from yet.

Organizers of the 26th annual Woolly Worm Festival, set for Oct. 18-19 in Banner Elk, say the worm's colorations can predict winter weather. Until the festival, woolly worm winter forecasts are unavailable.

Long-Range Predictions

Here are some long-range winter forecasts for the Carolinas:

NATIONAL CLIMATE DATA CENTER: Near-normal temperatures and precipitation into early January.

JOE BASTARDI (ACCU-WEATHER): Wet and colder than normal, especially in the Middle Atlantic, New England and Great Lakes areas -- particularly in the first half of the winter. A mild autumn, though.

DAVE TOLLERIS (WXRISK): Mild weather, with above-normal temperatures in October and December. A wet November, but a dry December.

JOE D'ALEO (DR. DEWPOINT OF INTELLICAST): More intense cold than last year, but spells of cold weather will be shorter.

FARMERS ALMANAC: Cold and snowy, especially in February and March.

WOOLLY WORM: No forecast until Oct. 18-19.

[donsutherland1]

Weather53,

This sounds like a very exciting addition. I'm sure anyone who can be on at the time will learn much.

[Guest]

I for one will be here... Yes anyone who can be here i strongly encourage you to be here for this...................Can learn lots from him and 53 both!!!!!

[wxid]

Yeah, KA rocks! Does he have a Web site? This rocks....can't wait!
Wxid

[JCT777]

W53 - This sounds great. I will try to join the Q & A sessions as well. Thanks!

[chadtm80]

This is GREAT!!! Weather53 contact me if you need The Admins to help you out in any way

[WEATHER53]

Time and date is set. Wednesday 11/19 at 7pm and will conclude around 7:30. Please submit questions starting no earlier than 6:45pm on Wednesday. I will create a KA questions thread at about that time. Thanks

[mdstorm]

This is a great idea Weather53! Looking forward to Wed night. It should be informative and fun.


mdstorm

[wxid]

Any Admins gonna be on 'Troll Patrol' tonight? Got a feeling we may need it. Hope not though.

[WEATHER53]

Becasue I started this in the winter weather forum that is the forum where the q & a will take place.

[chadtm80]

Yes wxid.. The entire staff is on notice

[WEATHER53]

I will be creating the question thread in 5 minutes.