Wild Scenario painted by the EURO in the MR ...

[Stormsfury]

Not that I really buy into it, 'cuz I don't ... the EURO wants to cut off a low off the Carolina Coast (and initially brings the 850mb Temperatures very close to 0C over CHS) ... something IMHO is definitely wrong with the run, but I'm missing why it's wrong, but it's SBJ related ...

Day 5 500mb Heights
http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen ... &cu=latest

Day 5 MSLP
http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen ... &cu=latest

Day 5 850mb Temperatures Southeastern View...
http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen ... &cu=latest

850mb temperatures do warm in the period day 6 and day 7 but the low wants to hang around ... and only the CMC has a setup similar to the EURO but further offshore ... the GFS/UKMET do not have this scenario ...

Day 6 MSLP - completely cutoff from the main flow -
http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen ... &cu=latest

Day 6 500mb Heights - completely cutoff from the main flow -
http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen ... &cu=latest

Day 7 - 500mb Heights - Still cutoff from the main flow --
http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen ... &cu=latest

Day 7 - MSLP
http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen ... &cu=latest

[roarusdogus]

I think the Euro fell off the deep end tonight. It just doesn't make any sense IMO by later next week.

[RNS]

actually SF, i think the EC is onto something...though your right the run is off...as was last nights GFS (though recently the GFS has all but lost the system...as usual). there is going to be some sort of development during that particular period.

the EC is vey impressive, however this is not a real great snow situation except for the higher elevations. 500 hPa heights are still much too high IMO to constitute a snow event, which would mean that any cold air which is around will be confined to locations below the 500mb cutoff, and it is highly unlikely that the system will be able to drag in much cold air except on day 5 and prehaps day six.

although with the position of the PV over hudsons bay and fairly far to the north on day 5...the negative tilt to the trough and strong height rises to the north of the cutoff during all three periods...i see no rerason for it to just shear out...IOW it SHOULD make the turn up the coast TO A POINT before heading out.

if you could get togehter some US 850 hPa temp maps for days 5, 5 and 7 that would be great

thanks....

[Stormsfury]

actually SF, i think the EC is onto something...though your right the run is off...as was last nights GFS (though recently the GFS has all but lost the system...as usual). there is going to be some sort of development during that particular period.

the EC is vey impressive, however this is not a real great snow situation except for the higher elevations. 500 hPa heights are still much too high IMO to constitute a snow event, which would mean that any cold air which is around will be confined to locations below the 500mb cutoff, and it is highly unlikely that the system will be able to drag in much cold air except on day 5 and prehaps day six.

although with the position of the PV over hudsons bay and fairly far to the north on day 5...the negative tilt to the trough and strong height rises to the north of the cutoff during all three periods...i see no rerason for it to just shear out...IOW it SHOULD make the turn up the coast TO A POINT before heading out.

if you could get togehter some US 850 hPa temp maps for days 5, 5 and 7 that would be great

thanks....

850mb Temperatures Day 5, 6, and 7 -- temperature intervals at 2ºC.

Day 5 850mb Temps

Day 6 Temperatures 850mb

Day 7 850mb Temperatures

SF

[WEATHER53]

Unless I am reading that wrong that would be a surface temp of 60 at 7am in DC area on day 7.

[RNS]

Exactly as i was expecting to see, since all the cold air during the Day 5-7 PD is locked up in canada, the only ccol air initially is located right underneath the H5 low, and even that is not all that impressive. by day 6-7 is completely gone.

so as it stands right now, this is not a snow threat to anyone except to the higher elevations of NC, VA, and perhaps TN on D5.

it is however a nice trend to see as far as establishing the winter patterns.

[Stormsfury]

Exactly as i was expecting to see, since all the cold air during the Day 5-7 PD is locked up in canada, the only ccol air initially is located right underneath the H5 low, and even that is not all that impressive. by day 6-7 is completely gone.

so as it stands right now, this is not a snow threat to anyone except to the higher elevations of NC, VA, and perhaps TN on D5.

it is however a nice trend to see as far as establishing the winter patterns.

Yep ... a totally cutoff low ... give me a good source of cold and that setup later in the year, and I just might be one happy camper ...

SF

[Upslope]

Tonight's GFS run is looking a lot like the latest EURO.


I'm hoping this link works! I know, it's tough breaking in the new guy on the board!
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer//gfs/00/gfs_500096114_s.shtml

[Stormsfury]

Tonight's GFS run is looking a lot like the latest EURO.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer//gfs/00/gfs_500096114_s.shtml

I'm hoping this link works! I know, it's tough breaking in the new guy on the board!

You beat me to it!! ...

The EURO is starting to look like it's onto something ... The GFS is beginning to trend this way with a cutoff idea ...

[Upslope]

As it turns out, the GFS from a few days ago was in the ball park with the cutoff low it was depicting across the east. Everyone ripped it to shreds at the time. Then it went back to progressive mode for a day or 2 and has now gone back to it's original idea of a closed low. Yes the placement is different from what it was thinking a few days ago, but let's give it it's due for being the ONLY model to even suggest this as a possibility about a week in advance.

By the way, this is a great site! I have posted in the past on (gulp) TWC and have been a very frequent watcher of the antics on WWBB. I am looking forward to a great winter of chit chat with my fellow winter fans.
Take care!

[Stormsfury]

As it turns out, the GFS from a few days ago was in the ball park with the cutoff low it was depicting across the east. Everyone ripped it to shreds at the time. Then it went back to progressive mode for a day or 2 and has now gone back to it's original idea of a closed low. Yes the placement is different from what it was thinking a few days ago, but let's give it it's due for being the ONLY model to even suggest this as a possibility about a week in advance.

By the way, this is a great site! I have posted in the past on (gulp) TWC and have been a very frequent watcher of the antics on WWBB. I am looking forward to a great winter of chit chat with my fellow winter fans.
Take care!

I remember you from TWC (gulp!) ... enjoy yourself here, and BTW, welcome to Storm2k! ...

I just saw the new CMC and it's abandoning the cutoff low idea (yesterday 00z run had it)

http://gfx.weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/ ... 36_100.gif

[Upslope]

Thanks!

You're right, the Canadian has jumped off the wagon for the closed low. However, just looking the model you get the idea that it would still love to close it off. I guess we'll find out which model (if any) will turn out to be right.

This is just a preview of the model madness that is shaping up for this winter. It will be a grind to figure things out as the models will be like a fish out of water... flippin' and floppin'!

[Stormsfury]

Thanks!

You're right, the Canadian has jumped off the wagon for the closed low. However, just looking the model you get the idea that it would still love to close it off. I guess we'll find out which model (if any) will turn out to be right.

This is just a preview of the model madness that is shaping up for this winter. It will be a grind to figure things out as the models will be like a fish out of water... flippin' and floppin'!

PAC Jet/SBJ is gonna make life quite interesting this year.

[Guest]

Thanks!

You're right, the Canadian has jumped off the wagon for the closed low. However, just looking the model you get the idea that it would still love to close it off. I guess we'll find out which model (if any) will turn out to be right.

This is just a preview of the model madness that is shaping up for this winter. It will be a grind to figure things out as the models will be like a fish out of water... flippin' and floppin'!

PAC Jet/SBJ is gonna make life quite interesting this year.

Yea it certainly seems that way................Either way it should be a very fun ride for most........................I would give it another day of runs to see what happens with this cut off.......................IMO i think they are showing this a bit far to the south which if that is the case then maybe it can draw some colder air in............But i guess we will see...............Something just nagging me about this storm

[Stormsfury]

Thanks!

You're right, the Canadian has jumped off the wagon for the closed low. However, just looking the model you get the idea that it would still love to close it off. I guess we'll find out which model (if any) will turn out to be right.

This is just a preview of the model madness that is shaping up for this winter. It will be a grind to figure things out as the models will be like a fish out of water... flippin' and floppin'!

PAC Jet/SBJ is gonna make life quite interesting this year.

Yea it certainly seems that way................Either way it should be a very fun ride for most........................I would give it another day of runs to see what happens with this cut off.......................IMO i think they are showing this a bit far to the south which if that is the case then maybe it can draw some colder air in............But i guess we will see...............Something just nagging me about this storm

I'm still at ends with this system and setup forthcoming ... IF the system doesn't cutoff, it will have an opportunity to draw in some cold air, though, I'm not that impressed with it, however, it could bring a brief shot of winter wx on the backside of the low ...

However, if the system becomes cutoff like the EURO advertises, it initially has a little cold air to tap, but as the system becomes cutoff (as RNS pointed out), the system loses its source of cold air to tap into as the initial low retreats off to the north.

Later today, I'm going to compile some other maps including the CMC, NOGAPS, and GFS ensemble members sometime later this afternoon .. but I don't have time at the moment ...

SF

[Upslope]

SF,

It's wild to see the GFS and EURO still on the same page with our "cotoff" low. We now really have to like the chances for this thing becoming cutoff from the main flow at some point in the east. What is also important to note is the effect this has on the next few weeks of weather and the overall pattern in general. It is my contetnion that IF we get our "cotoff" low as advertised, it will start the process of a -NAO as the heights will really be on the rise to the north of this thing. If the 12z and 18a runs of the GFS are right, this looks to be setting up some sort of blocking across NA. Thos 2 runs of the GFS are almost identical with one another on the HUGE push of the PV into the lakes region by early Turkey week. I guess only time will tell, but it looks to be a very fun few weeks to watch unfold.

[Stormsfury]

SF,

It's wild to see the GFS and EURO still on the same page with our "cotoff" low. We now really have to like the chances for this thing becoming cutoff from the main flow at some point in the east. What is also important to note is the effect this has on the next few weeks of weather and the overall pattern in general. It is my contetnion that IF we get our "cotoff" low as advertised, it will start the process of a -NAO as the heights will really be on the rise to the north of this thing. If the 12z and 18a runs of the GFS are right, this looks to be setting up some sort of blocking across NA. Thos 2 runs of the GFS are almost identical with one another on the HUGE push of the PV into the lakes region by early Turkey week. I guess only time will tell, but it looks to be a very fun few weeks to watch unfold.

The strange thing about the GFS is that it has NO ensemble support ... however, the EC tonight compared to last night still has the cutoff idea, but further NE ... (DT/HM pointed this out and I have no reason to disagree).

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSHGT_12z/f180.gif

[Upslope]

SF,

You are right! However, the GFS had absolutly NO support last week when it was showing the "cutoff" low in the east for this week. No, support is plentifull. BTW , Tonight's run of the EURO may be doing the same thing it was doing several runs ago when it showed this week's east coast "cutoff" hanging way back in the SW. My concern is that it's up to it's usual tricks in showing the cutoff low for next weekend across the SW. We'll see!

[Stormsfury]

SF,

You are right! However, the GFS had absolutly NO support last week when it was showing the "cutoff" low in the east for this week. No, support is plentifull. BTW , Tonight's run of the EURO may be doing the same thing it was doing several runs ago when it showed this week's east coast "cutoff" hanging way back in the SW. My concern is that it's up to it's usual tricks in showing the cutoff low for next weekend across the SW. We'll see!

Are you talking about the ECMWF's tendency to hang SW energy back bias? .. Hmm, interesting, considering the overall progressive nature of the pattern right now, you definitely may have a point there.

Obviously the bigger concern in the immediate short term is the Southlands Severe Wx Setup and it looks to be a doozy tomorrow and Tuesday ...

[Upslope]

That's exactly what I am talking about! The EURO has always had the problem with SW lows! It bit a lot of people in the backside last week and my concern is it's doing it again! I have a hard time believing it that this SW low will cutoff like that. For goodness sakes, it stil has it trough day 10! NOT GOING TO HAPPEN!

The severe threat for the next 3 days looks to be very, very high! Helicities are forecast to go above 500 for parts of the OV and Tn V! That is very impressive for this time of year or any other time of year for that matter. It is looking like an impressive squall line environment will be present late Monday into Tuesday. Damaging straight line winds are likely! But out ahead of this line is the concern. Possible supercell development could lead to some tornadic activity. I think this is a major outbreak from the eastern plains to the MA over the next 3 days.