October QBO Signals No Reversal Until At Least February

[donsutherland1]

The October <b>QBO Index</b> has been released and stands at -20.35. Given <b>past history</b> with easterly QBOs where the QBO Index bottomed out at or below -20.00, it is highly likely that the QBO will not complete its transition to west (positive) until February or March. Consequently, the coming winter will mainly be an East QBO winter.

[JCT777]

Thanks for the QBO update, Don. My question would be - in what way could this affect the upcoming winter in the mid-Atlantic and Northeast?

[PTrackerLA]

Yeah for people who don't really know what you're talking about, what does this mean for the deep south's winter?

[Anonymous]

This should point to a very mild winter for the NE and Mid-Atlantic with very little snow. All the action will be out West.

[roarusdogus]

This should point to a very mild winter for the NE and Mid-Atlantic with very little snow. All the action will be out West.

[donsutherland1]

JCT777 and PTrackerLA,

In general, QBO East winters are less snowy and less severe in the Eastern U.S. than QBO West winters. Given the new data, it appears that the coming winter could be more a QBO East winter then a QBO West one. Nevertheless, it is highly unlikely to resemble 2001-02.

[CaptinCrunch]

If the QBO pan's out it would mean a colder winter for the rockies and central plains states with the southern jet stream being futher south. It would also bring a better chance of ice and snow to the south from New Mexico, Texas and Oklahoma and northward.

It sure would help in the drought the west has been having for the last few years.

IMO....I really think that Northwestern and central US is in for a COLD WINTER...it has been to long without.

[LMolineux]

Very Disapointing. To Say the least. But its been time coming. But one thing is here in the East do deserve to have many back to back winters of great snowy times and cold but our pattern never holds.

[JCT777]

Thanks Don. That's what I thought. But I am not backing off of my thinking for this winter, which is for near normal temps and normal to slightly-above-normal snowfall for the mid-Atlantic and northeast.

[LMolineux]

JCT i hope your right and iam trying to stay pos. abotu this and holding to that same thought as you but am very concerned with this data and its findings and what it is goign to do or cause our weather to be like.

[donsutherland1]

CaptinCrunch,

One of the critical assumptions in my seasonal forecast was that the QBO would change to west in either January or February. Consequently, I believe that the latest data has helped refine but not killed the general ideas previously set forth. Toward the end of the month, I'll offer such revisions as might be necessary.

At present, it appears that the recent pattern change and now evolution toward another shift is beginning to offer some support to the seasonal idea concerning precipitation anomalies:

<img src="http://wintercenter.homestead.com/files/analogprc.gif">

Needless to say, I anticipate near normal to somewhat above normal snowfall for the winter in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeastern U.S., so snowlovers there should not lose heart. I do not anticipate amounts similar to those in Winter 2002-03 but certainly more than 2001-02.

[donsutherland1]

JCT777,

At this time, I see no reason to expect a notably warm and relatively snowless winter. My initial idea of near normal to somewhat below normal readings and near normal to somewhat above normal snowfall still looks good.

[donsutherland1]

LMolineux,

I don't believe there's any cause to surrender hope for a decent winter even before winter has begun. When anticipating near normal to somewhat above normal snowfall, I considered a QBO switch for January or February. So the timing is more of a refinement within the general timeframe anticipated previously.

[JCT777]

Looks like we are in agreement, Don. Now let's see if we have the right thinking or if we go down in flames.