Is the end of SE RIdge in sight?

[Tip]

The GFS ensembles are now trending toward a return of a negative NAO around November 20. Will this signal another pattern change? During the winter of 2001-2002, the GFS was always predicting colder weather and it never came about. But the ENSO was different. I am beginning to think that there will be higher than normal degree of variability this winter as the longer duration teleconnections such as El nino/El Nina aren't that strong with exception of the QBO which I'm not really sure of its power to control the overall pattern and some SST anomalies.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... _ensm.html

While the GFS is not good that far out usually when the ensembles are this definite in the pattern, it is something to take into consideration.

[wx247]

If my memory serves me correctly the GFS did a good job handling the first cold snap across the US a few weeks ago. I wonder if it was a trend or just a lucky prediction...

[Stormsfury]

The GFS ensembles are now trending toward a return of a negative NAO around November 20. Will this signal another pattern change? During the winter of 2001-2002, the GFS was always predicting colder weather and it never came about. But the ENSO was different. I am beginning to think that there will be higher than normal degree of variability this winter as the longer duration teleconnections such as El nino/El Nina aren't that strong with exception of the QBO which I'm not really sure of its power to control the overall pattern and some SST anomalies.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... _ensm.html

While the GFS is not good that far out usually when the ensembles are this definite in the pattern, it is something to take into consideration.

The CMC ensemble members are trending toward the same ...
http://www.stormsfury1.com/Weather/Mode ... mbles.html

[roarusdogus]

But the ENSO was different

False. 01-02 was neutral as it is right now.

[Stormsfury]

But the ENSO was different

False. 01-02 was neutral as it is right now.

Correct ... one difference is the solar activity ... 2001-2002, we were in a solar maxima, not so now ...

[Guest]

But the ENSO was different

False. 01-02 was neutral as it is right now.

Hmmmmm.........OK roarusdogus you mind sharing any of your insight other then just correcting people on here?????? Every attempt at posting you have made on here has just been to correct people and yet i have not seen you add anything here?????? Please enlighten us with your knowlege.................

[Stormsfury]

But the ENSO was different

False. 01-02 was neutral as it is right now.

Hmmmmm.........OK roarusdogus you mind sharing any of your insight other then just correcting people on here?????? Every attempt at posting you have made on here has just been to correct people and yet i have not seen you add anything here?????? Please enlighten us with your knowlege.................

KOW, 01-02 was neutral ... roardog is correct here.

Climatological Text SST and anomalies Indecies since 1950...
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/data/indices/sstoi.indices

[Guest]

But the ENSO was different

False. 01-02 was neutral as it is right now.

Hmmmmm.........OK roarusdogus you mind sharing any of your insight other then just correcting people on here?????? Every attempt at posting you have made on here has just been to correct people and yet i have not seen you add anything here?????? Please enlighten us with your knowlege.................

KOW, 01-02 was neutral ... roardog is correct here.

Climatological Text SST and anomalies Indecies since 1950...
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/data/indices/sstoi.indices

I didnt say he wasnt SF My thing is his correct only post on this board..............I wanna see what he has or knows.............Thats all............If someone is gonna only post to correct people it draws my attention and makes me WANNA know what they have seeing how they (SEEM) to know something???????????Roardog why not show everyone here what you have shown elsewhere and this way people will know how to take you.................Thanks

[roarusdogus]

I really have nothing to share at the moment. I'm not much for seasonal forecasting. I can usually tell a NWS bust or what not a mile away if it's within a week but I try not to say much when it comes to seasonal forecasting as there are many people out there that know much more than I do as far as the long range goes. When I see an obvious mistake in a thread, I don't like to see it go uncorrected. This gives out false info to those trying to learn. I have a tendency, probably due to habit, to post most of my ideas on WWBB. I'll try to post any ideas I have here as well, for those of you who don't frequent WWBB.

[Tip]

Sorry for the inaccuracy on the ENSO. Relying on memory rather than looking at the record can be a problem

This mornings ensembles (GFS, CMC and NOGAPS) seem to arguing that the current pattern of west coast trough and SE ridge will evolve into a flat zonal flow rather than a return to the east trough,western ridge pattern. This lends credence to roaring Pac jet idea of DT into December.

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/ ... times.html

http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/ense ... 240_e.html

As Roarusdogus pointed out the ENSO was neutral in 01-02 and looking back at the NAO recorda negative NAO interestingly had little affect in bringing any change to the warm winter on the east coast.

http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/ense ... 240_e.html