Will the QBO remains below -20 for October...

[Stormsfury]

September 2003 .... the QBO was

-22.52 for September ...
-24.65 for August ...

ftp://ftpprd.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/cpc/wd52 ... .u30.index

*patiently waiting for the October QBO values*

[Guest]

In fact, for October 2003 .... the QBO was

-22.52 for October ...
-24.65 for September ...

ftp://ftpprd.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/cpc/wd52 ... .u30.index

Hmmmmm?????? And the plot thickens? With that said i would have say it may be a bit longer then expected when it reverses???? Hmmmmmm.

[Stormsfury]

In fact, for October 2003 .... the QBO was

-22.52 for October ...
-24.65 for September ...

ftp://ftpprd.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/cpc/wd52 ... .u30.index

Hmmmmm?????? And the plot thickens? With that said i would have say it may be a bit longer then expected when it reverses???? Hmmmmmm.

Maybe past the heart of winter before the full reversal .. I think I remember something from WWBB, that the value needed to be below -20 for a shot of full reversal to the a westerly (positive) direction before the heart of winter ...

SF

[Stormsfury]

Maybe I need to check the format of the text ... GRRR!!!

That's September's value!!!

[donsutherland1]

Stormsfury,

Those are the August and September figures for the QBO Index. The October figure has not yet been released.

[Stormsfury]

Stormsfury,

Those are the August and September figures for the QBO Index. The October figure has not yet been released.

My post above yours (I realized my error) ... the text format got me totally messed up looking at it.

SF

[donsutherland1]

Stormsfury,

Sorry, I missed that one. I apologize for the error.

[donsutherland1]

Stormsfury,

Based on past <b>QBO East situations</b> where the QBO bottomed out at -20 or below, the October QBO would need to be -18.25 or higher (e.g., -17.50) if it is to complete its transition to positive (west) in December or January (January being most likely). If it is below -18.25 (e.g., -19.00), it is highly unlikely that it would become westerly until February or later.

I believe the October figure will be a close call with this benchmark coming in around -17.50 +/- 2.50 given past QBO data.

[Stormsfury]

Stormsfury,

Based on past <b>QBO East situations</b> where the QBO bottomed out at -20 or below, the October QBO would need to be -18.25 or higher (e.g., -17.50) if it is to complete its transition to positive (west) in December or January (January being most likely). If it is below -18.25 (e.g., -19.00), it is highly unlikely that it would become westerly until February or later.

I believe the October figure will be a close call with this benchmark coming in around -17.50 +/- 2.50 given past QBO data.

I remember reading that and was (a little too) anxious. IMHO, seems like a lot is riding on the October QBO value. I noticed in 1996 that the October value was -23.40 and by February 1997 it was 1.94 ... but basically speaking, if it isn't in the benchmark that you posted, the reversal won't take place until February or later ...

SF

[donsutherland1]

Stormsfury,

You are correct. The timing of the QBO's transition is actually quite predictable when it comes to a QBO that bottoms out at or below -20. Unfortunately, this is not the case with weaker East or West QBOs.

[Stormsfury]

It appears that some problems with the NCEP computers are going to delay the release of the October QBO indecies ... soooooooooo, looks like we gotta wait just a little longer ...