Here Comes the Eastern Ridge!

[donsutherland1]

On October 20, I made some corrections to initial ideas expressed on October 18, and suggested that the month of October would end on a warm note and that the warmth would continue into the first half of November.

Several factors on which this idea was based still look good:

1) Shift to positive for the NAO near the end of October--indeed, it has just done so.

<img src="http://www5.wright-weather.com/bb/attachment.php?s=&postid=120781">


2) Shift of above normal heights to the East.

An evolving trend that should be watched is that the PNA will likely swing negative near the end of October or in early November (earlier, I had thought it might remain generally positive for the most part, albeit weakly positive). Based on ensemble forecasts and other factors I now believe it will swing negative for at least a 6-10 day period.

However, the biggest news is that most recent run of the ECMWF is showing a huge pattern reversal as it shows an impressive "Ridge in the East/Trough in the West" configuration by 12Z October 31.

At the same time, the latest ensemble forecasts also point to a NAO+ and PNA- configuration establishing itself near November 1:

<img src="http://www5.wright-weather.com/bb/attachment.php?s=&postid=120648">

In short, balmy breezes that will bring reminders of beach days past are imminent.

Those who fear autumnal warmth will have much to be afraid of on Halloween (readings will likely rise near or above 70 degrees as far north as southern New England on October 31) and into the 70s in the Mid-Atlantic region. Melting candy advisories might be required in some locations, especially the Mid-Atlantic states.

Overall, the warmth will continue during the first half of November. A few shots of cooler air are likely, but those should be neither extreme nor prolonged. Winter's early foray to the East (unseasonable chill in early October and snowfall in some locations on October 22-23) is finished.

As for the rest of November, early signs hint that the warmth will continue to hang around for at least a time after mid-month, though reamplification around mid-month--not Halloween witchcraft--might begin to lay the groundwork for a pattern reversal.

Before then, get ready for the warmth of the Eastern ridge!

[JCT777]

It certainly does appear that we are headed into some Indian Summer for the next few weeks. Being a cold and snow lover, I am OK with this for now, but after Thanksgiving I am hopeful of a return to cold weather.

And LOL at the following!

Melting candy advisories might be required in some locations, especially the Mid-Atlantic states.

[donsutherland1]

I think we'll be ok in the snowfall and cold department this winter.

Somehow, I don't think those trick-or-treating would be too happy if their
potential windfall in candy winds up melting courtesy of the Eastern ridge .

[Guest]

Well Don i couldnt agree with you more about this....................I just got done myself reading all the latest data and yep the warm up will be taken place later this week with even areas such as my own apporaching 70 on Halloween....................On the flip side it seems areas from the Northern Lakes on westward into the northern/central plains and to the westcoast will be seeing a big time cool down and alot of places out in the rockies perhaps seeing thier first decent snowstorm of the season which includes Denver and Salt lake City...................By the weekend even places such as Seattle WA. may be hard pressed to hit 40.......................
I like you dont think this will be the norm for the up comming winter not to mention the rest of november........................Right now everything is happening the way i have figured it would with the cold and snow first paying a visit to the Rockies and Plains and then progressing East as we head towards winter........................Another good thing with this kind of set up is that the snow pack will continue to build very nicely up in Canada/Northern US......................I as well expect the pattern to start switching again mid/latter November with the trough heading back east and the ridge in the west..................

Great discussion as always Don!

[GAStorm]

I think this is really good news for the drought out west. Also, I definitely agree that the cold and snowy conditions will make a surge to the east the closer we get to winter. The last Dr. Dewpoint article describes this as well.

http://intellicast.com/DrDewpoint/Library/1411/

[Stormsfury]

Looking at some of the MR models with the Eastern Ridge poking up like this leads me to believe that there's a potential for some daily record highs falling by the boards in the coming weeks.

This looks to be a first for South Carolina (particularly CHS as just about every year, it's been cold just in time for the arrival of the Coastal Carolina Fair ... NOT THIS YEAR! ... First time I can EVER remember this happening.)

SF

[Stephanie]

Those who fear autumnal warmth will have much to be afraid of on Halloween (readings will likely rise near or above 70 degrees as far north as southern New England on October 31) and into the 70s in the Mid-Atlantic region. Melting candy advisories might be required in some locations, especially the Mid-Atlantic states.

Cute!!

I used to hate going Trick or Treating when it was cold out - you had to wear a coat over your costume!!!

GAStorm - I share your feelings about this being good news for the West coast. I do hope they start to get some rain from it!

[PTrackerLA]

Like GAstorm noted, this is really good news for the west. They've had much above normal temps and hardly any precip for months now. I have some friends that live in Colordao and they've told me that it's very rare to see the peaks nearly snowless at the end of October.

[Dave C]

After the dev. Gulf system runs up the east coast tonite and Wednesday it will be nice to have milder weather build back for a while. 70+ temps forecasted this weekend for s. New England!!. Thanks for update on pattern evolution Don!!

[WEATHER53]

I think DCA and IAD will range between 75-81 for the Thurs-Sun time frame then a brief cool down to mid 60's for Mon and Tuesday with no sign of departures on the order or -10 to almsot -20 like early October and for several days last week.
Also, shockingly enough, WWBB is down again. Silly of them to put the blame on outside sources again, simply put the servers they utilize cannot handle the demand.

[donsutherland1]

October is ending and if one were to follow the temperature staircase that lies directly ahead courtesy of emergent East Coast ridging, one could almost be tempted to conclude that fall leads to summer.

That's the way it will feel Halloween Friday and through the weekend. Warm breezes will send the mercury climbing to or above 70 degrees from southern New England southward Friday through Sunday and maybe Monday, as well.

October hasn't always ended--at least in the minds of winter weather lovers--on such a discordant note. In fact, it has sometimes come to an end on a downright wintry note.

On October 31, 1925 <i>The New York Times</i> editorialized:

"This year October has been a fizzle, belying the rhapsodists, confounding the weather oracles. Usually it is the month of all the months for misty morns, languid noons and sunsets marked by beautiful and slowly fading colors, from white lights through orange to the reds presaging days of beauty standing veiled apart...

There have been few festivities this year. All records for cold have been smashed to smithereens. October has pushed November out of the line and is masquerading as March... October has lost character entirely. But Nature has her compensations. November may be kind to us, smile on us, be gracious and beguile us with Indian Summer days once more."

Why the anguish?

As the newspaper reported in the same edition, "New York had its heaviest October snowfall on record yesterday and more was predicted last night for today...

The snow fell over most of New England. There were flurries in Washington. Sleighing was reported in parts of Pennsylvania. Five or six inches of snow lay on the ground at Belleville, NJ, the heaviest October snow in the memory of the oldest inhabitants."

Recalling October's early sharp chill and the 10/22-23 snowfall across parts of New England into the NYC suburbs, some might even be asking "Is winter over before it even had a chance to begin?"

At this time, there's little reason for snowlovers to be spooked by the warm conclusion to the month.

After all, the aforementioned Winter 1925-26 did not "end happily ever after" for all East Coast snowlovers. Although the Mid-Atlantic region saw near normal to somewhat above normal snowfall, New England paid the price for its early snow dividend, suffering through a winter of below normal to much below normal snowfall.

In fact, if one examines historical weather records, more often than not "Winter forgets the end of October." If Winter 2003-04 holds fast to this pattern, perhaps winter weather lovers should be basking in the balmy breezes taking comfort that warmth to finish October can be good.

[JCT777]

I am not worried about a lack of cold and snow this winter. There will be enough of both to satisfy me, I am sure.

[donsutherland1]

John,

I fully agree with you.

[Anonymous]

Well I still crave my beloved OBX weather conditions.

Looks as if I will get them.

I want to savor some genuine OBX weather conditions:

Highs in the mid 70s and dewpoints in the mid 60s. If there is drizzle and light to moderate rain, that will be fine too. All that happened down in the OBX when we were there 2.5 weeks ago.

I want my OBX weather!!!!

Nags Head gets to have highs near 76, dewpoints in the mid 60s on Thursday!!

I want that weather here!!!!

Just a nice reminder of how it was down in Nags Head!!!!!

Then I will go down to Leesylvania Park, this is a beach on the Potomac River with a 2 foot tide range. If we get a good SSE wind flow of 20 knots, we could have some nice surf running up on that sand beach. I will lay my beach towel down, lay there, listen to the waves breaking and enjoy the warm weather and imagine that I am at Nags Head, down in the Outer Banks once more.

Just one more taste of Nags Head warmth before the cruel, cold winter comes. Just one more balmy beach breeze. Just one more reminder of why I love the beach so much.

Thats all I ask.

Highs in the mid/upper 70s, dewpoints in the mid 60s, and south winds 10 to 20 knots, just like it was at Nags Head.

Just one more time. Please.


-Nags Head Jeb

[donsutherland1]

Courtesy of the current synoptic setup, temperatures across the Eastern U.S. were scaling the thermometer. As of 11 am, readings were within 10 degrees or less of established records in cities including:

Boston: 69 (record: 77, 1974)
Portland, ME: 64 (record: 74, 1974)
Providence: 70 (record: 78, 1974)

[ColdFront77]

Norwood, MA (southwest of Boston) made it to 77° at 12:53pm EST, Boston, MA was 75° at the same time.

The forecast low temperatures for eastern Massachusetts are only in the mid 40's for tomorrow morning and only expected to rise into the upper 50's by afternoon.

[donsutherland1]

At 2 pm, Portland, Maine had tied its record high temperature for the date set back in 1974 at 74 degrees. Meanwhile, Boston and Providence were flirting within a few degrees of their records. Will their courtship of the sun bring them the ring of a record high?

2 pm readings:
Boston: 75 (record: 77, 1974)
Portland, ME: 74 (record: 74, 1974): Tied record
Providence: 76 (record: 78, 1974)

[Stormsfury]

Looking at some of the MR models with the Eastern Ridge poking up like this leads me to believe that there's a potential for some daily record highs falling by the boards in the coming weeks.

This looks to be a first for South Carolina (particularly CHS as just about every year, it's been cold just in time for the arrival of the Coastal Carolina Fair ... NOT THIS YEAR! ... First time I can EVER remember this happening.)

SF

At 2 pm, Portland, Maine had tied its record high temperature for the date set back in 1974 at 74 degrees. Meanwhile, Boston and Providence were flirting within a few degrees of their records. Will their courtship of the sun bring them the ring of a record high?

2 pm readings:
Boston: 75 (record: 77, 1974)
Portland, ME: 74 (record: 74, 1974): Tied record
Providence: 76 (record: 78, 1974)

Looks like some daily records are falling by the boards ...

[donsutherland1]

Warm weather lovers living in Providence, some of whom are still suffering from the Red Sox ALCS Game 7 loss, have suffered another jarring setback as the city's bid for a record high temperature was turned back late this afternoon. Providence came agonizingly close to its record high temperature before slamming into a wall as formidable as that in the Boston Marathon. With Providence sitting 2 degrees shy of its record, the distance to that mark seemed as that to the peak of Mt. Everest.

Meanwhile Bostonians clung desperately to hope as the mercury at Logan International Airport stood at 76 degrees, just one degree short of the old record. However, even as Bostonians clung to the ever so slim hope that the temperature could nose a degree higher, the city was poised for even greater heartbreak than Providence given that the old record appeared within the city's grasp.

Even as Boston stood at the brink of a record, the hour glass of opportunity was emptying fast as the sun continued its gradual descent toward the horizon. Meanwhile news from elsewhere in New England was not encouraging. Already temperatures were easing back across parts of the region, including Portland where warm weather lovers were still sipping champagne after seeing the thermometer reach the city's daily record.

3 pm readings:
Boston: 76 (record: 77, 1974)
Portland, ME: 73 (record: 74, 1974): Tied record earlier
Providence: 76 (record: 78, 1974)

[donsutherland1]

Good call, Stormsfury.