Hey King

[wxid]

Hey (anyone else too) King, have a stupid question .... IF a substantial (albeit unlikely) snowstorm were to pummel the MidAtlantic area in Nov-Dec (hence unsual) , WHAT would have to A)be in place, B) happen and C) misc in order for the IDEAL pattern to set up for this? In other words, i know this is not likely, but in my ignorance am interested in a Vets knowledge of how the perfect storm would play out. I am guessing an Artic Air mass would have to drop down to FL area, stay there and be far enough out over the Atlantic to keep the Rain line out of the picture, as well as the perfect Low(s) moving from TX to MD, VA or PA? I know im off here, but just to give an example of what i am trying to picture. I know it borders somewhat on the typical SECS-Noreaster thing, but with the variable of NOV-DEC. Please ignore the unlikelyness of this and inform your newbie friend , thanks!
wx-id

[JCT777]

The Cubs or Red Sox would have to win the World Series first.

But seriously, there would certainly have to be some very cold air in place, and a storm tracking to the south and/or east - close enough to bring precip but not too close as to wrap in warm air off the ocean. I know this is vague, but I am not an expert.

[wxid]

hehe-no comment on the Cubs!

[donsutherland1]

WXID,

Such storms have not been very common in the Mid-Atlantic region during November.

Recent moderate to large storms:

- November 6-7, 1953: 4" Washington, DC area
- November 30, 1967: 6.9" DCA; 11.4" IAD
- November 12, 1968: 4"-6" in Washington, DC area
- November 11, 1987: 11.5" at DCA (followed 72-degree high of 11/9)

The Veteran's Day snowstorm of 1987 is probably a good example of what is required for a major snowstorm in November.

Preceding the snowstorm, very cold air had gathered in central Canada and had been expanding. A sharp cold front drew a piece of this very cold air (-14C over central Ontario/western Quebec 11/10; -16C at 850 mb over central Quebec 0Z 11/11) into the Ohio Valley and eastward.

As the cold air was coming south and eastward, a storm took shape along the cold front in eastern North Carolina and then headed slowly northeastward from there as it rapidly intensified. Its deepening was aided in part by a sharp contrast in temperatures that existed on either side of the cold front, extreme warmth to its east; unseasonable cold to its west.

This rapid intensification helped draw extremely cold air (relative to the season) directly into the Mid-Atlantic region. By 0Z 11/12, the 850 mb temperature over the DCA area was -6C

[Stormsfury]

These are reanalysis maps for November 12th, 1987 at 00z.

Doesn't hurt to have a closed 500mb low (with a DM of 5431)

http://pscwx.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_r ... m=&dd=&hh=

You can clearly see just how cold that pocket of air is under the closed ULL ... with readings as low as -10ºC at 5000 ft (850mb)

http://pscwx.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_r ... m=&dd=&hh=

1000-500mb Thickness values well below the required 5400 for frozen precip under that ULL

http://pscwx.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_r ... m=&dd=&hh=

850mb RH's

http://pscwx.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_r ... m=&dd=&hh=

Absolute vorticity with the 850mb Low OFFSHORE in an ideal position to draw ATL moisture and throw it back into the cold air well established over DCA.

http://pscwx.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_r ... m=&dd=&hh=

Hope this helps.

SF

[Guest]

Hey (anyone else too) King, have a stupid question .... IF a substantial (albeit unlikely) snowstorm were to pummel the MidAtlantic area in Nov-Dec (hence unsual) , WHAT would have to A)be in place, B) happen and C) misc in order for the IDEAL pattern to set up for this? In other words, i know this is not likely, but in my ignorance am interested in a Vets knowledge of how the perfect storm would play out. I am guessing an Artic Air mass would have to drop down to FL area, stay there and be far enough out over the Atlantic to keep the Rain line out of the picture, as well as the perfect Low(s) moving from TX to MD, VA or PA? I know im off here, but just to give an example of what i am trying to picture. I know it borders somewhat on the typical SECS-Noreaster thing, but with the variable of NOV-DEC. Please ignore the unlikelyness of this and inform your newbie friend , thanks!
wx-id

Well the the problem is Don wxid is on the Delamarva (Salisbury, MD) which there things somewhat works differently then say DC especially when it comes to snowstorms and such..................Last big snow i remember during the Nov/Dec time frame was back in (89/90)?????Not sure which year but either way it was a big snow producer for areas just inland on the Delmarva with places such as Salisbury getting over a foot of snow while Ocean City, MD (About 30miles away) at the coast got about 4 inches before going to rain.................The storm track this area needs is one in which the low (In Most cases) goes off the Hattaras coast and then ne and NOT hug the coast (Such as the case was with the 96 Blizzard which stayed too close to the coast and caused change over on the Delmarva especially from Sussex County, DE/Talbot county, MD on south) Another needed thing of course is plenty of cold with a strong enough high pressure (That doesnt get eroded away) to the NNW (I perfer Northern NY state general area of the NE for the location of the high to get and keep the cold pumping into areas such as the Delmarva) Most snowstorms i expierenced living there had this kind of set up...................BTW correct me if im wrong Don but i think 79/80 had this setup in which VA and the Delmarva got the good snows???? I get my PSP fixed i will do up a map for you to see the set up which may help explain this a little better...................

[Stormsfury]

King, right now, 79-80 is the forefront runner on the analog side.

SF

[donsutherland1]

King of Weather,

I had not realized that WXID is in Salisbury. I assumed incorrectly that WXID was somewhere in the Baltimore-Washington Corridor as I only saw that WXID is from Maryland.

Yes, you are absolutely correct that a good setup for DC could prove to be a spoiler for Salisbury. For Salisbury to enjoy bigger snows, cold air combined with a system far enough offshore are required.

1979-80 was a fantastic winter for parts of North Carolina and the Virginia Tidewater region. A sharp cutoff in seasonal snowfall occurred north of DCA. While 20.1" fell in DCA, just 14.6" fell at BWI. NYC suffered through a winter with 12.8".

[Guest]

Thats ok Don i kinda figured that when i seen your reply......................Yep Don i remember that winter 79-80 well living at that time in the DC area...........

BTW SF im still not buying a certain analog or one i should say such as the 79-80 analog..................I will get into this more in a bit............

[Stormsfury]

Thats ok Don i kinda figured that when i seen your reply......................Yep Don i remember that winter 79-80 well living at that time in the DC area...........

BTW SF im still not buying a certain analog or one i should say such as the 79-80 analog..................I will get into this more in a bit............

I'm not sold on a particular analog either. You know that very well from the chatroom. But right now, 79-80 pattern setup is somewhat similar to the current one. I can't deny that right now.

But you know probably better than anyone else, that IMHO, that 2003 has literally been too wacky to find one particular year that matches this year. I'm willing to wager there will be many surprises this upcoming winter, both good and bad.

SF

[Stormsfury]

The heavily favored years I believe are 1958-1959, 1960-1961, 1979-1980

1958's last tropical system was Janice (10/5-10/13)
1960's last tropical system was Florence (9/17-9/27)
1979's last tropical system was a Subtropical System (10/23-10/25)

Unbelievably ... it's near the same region as the non-tropical low and the remnants of Nicholas (which might become a subtropical cyclone briefly) ...

Storm SUBTROP 1 is number 9 of the year 1979
************************************************
Month Day Hour Lat. Long. Dir. ----Speed----- -----Wind------ Pressure ------------Type-----------
October 23 12 UTC 29.0N 66.0W -- deg -- mph -- kph 30 mph 45 kph 1007 mb Subtropical Storm
October 23 18 UTC 31.0N 65.3W 15 deg 23 mph 37 kph 30 mph 45 kph 1004 mb Subtropical Storm
October 24 0 UTC 33.0N 64.8W 10 deg 23 mph 37 kph 35 mph 55 kph 1000 mb Subtropical Storm
October 24 6 UTC 35.0N 64.0W 20 deg 24 mph 38 kph 45 mph 75 kph 996 mb Subtropical Storm
October 24 12 UTC 37.5N 63.0W 20 deg 29 mph 48 kph 60 mph 95 kph 990 mb Subtropical Storm
October 24 18 UTC 40.5N 62.0W 15 deg 34 mph 55 kph 75 mph 120 kph 985 mb Subtropical Storm
October 25 0 UTC 43.5N 61.0W 15 deg 34 mph 55 kph 70 mph 110 kph 980 mb Subtropical Storm
October 25 6 UTC 47.5N 58.4W 25 deg 49 mph 79 kph 60 mph 95 kph 982 mb Subtropical Storm
October 25 12 UTC 51.0N 55.0W 30 deg 47 mph 75 kph 50 mph 85 kph 987 mb Subtropical Storm

[wxid]

Thanks everyone !!! Ooooops on the failure to mention Salisbury!!! My bad. Havnt read all this yet, but looks like what i was interested in. May have a few more questions. Again thanks for everyones time and consideration!!
wxid

[wxid]

Ok, just read thru.... very nice work guys !! Sorry if it is location specific (boring/OT to some) . King is right, this area is the pitts for predictibility . Things like the the Bay temp and Ocean temp add to the other variables and totally pimp rain, usually. Its like the opposite of Lake Effect snows !! The most frequent words from me and Rainstorm in Norfolk are AAAARRRRGGGGH !!! King, please do make the map you describe above, that would be great. I don't know about analogs and stuff, i know it often seems like time repeats in cycles, but they are NEVER the same, although i think folks said someone said last year someone (Keith Allen?) nailed it that way by pretty good. King, your previous discussion on this was a good read (re: over reliance on analogs). Hey , ever notice alot of times after you seperate the hype from the facts about 3-5 days out from approaching storms, its usually a 50/50 call? I hate that! Its like it could do this or or could do that! Might as well toss coins!!! he he

wxid

[wxid]

PS - Anyone got any more details on the 1987 Vets Day storm, like :

-Path
-History
-Misc details

SF, thanks for the reanalysis maps (although i'm a little confused on how to gel them together but working on it & thats the most i can find so far and nice and arranged too!!!) ? All i can find on NWS and Net are just a few sentences here and there.
thanks,
wxid

[JCT777]

All I can tell you about the Veteran's Day storm is my memories, and I live in the NW suburbs of Philadelphia. The day started with a cold rain (11/11/87). It was my freshman year in college. I drove to school and it was still all rain, with a temp of about 34 degrees at 8:30 AM. The prediction at that time was for a rain/sleet/snow mix with little accumulation. As I was leaving scool a few hours later, I heard a teacher's aid mention that she heard Accu-weather say we were now expecting 3 to 6 inches of snow by evening. As I was walking to my car, it was sleeting very heavily (at about 12:30 PM). It took me 15 minutes to scrape all of the ice off of my car. By the time I pulled out of the parking lot, the sleet had changed to snow. My 30 minute drive home took an hour and my car slid all over the road (this was my first experience driving on snow OR ice!).

When I arrived at home, I turned on the news and the prediction was now for 6 inches of snow by midnight, based on the fact that DC already had 6 inches and it was still snowing there. Temps had now fallen to about 30 degrees. Well, the 6 inches of snow did not materialize, but we did pick up about 2 inches of snow by 8 PM. I think the heaviest precip ended up going to the south and east of my area (into DE and southern NJ instead of Southeast PA). All in all, it was a pretty amazing storm.

[wxid]

Wow....good memory! I can't even remeber the Bliz of '96 that well! I don't even remember the '87 storm... i think that was the year i was a testing volunteer for the German Beer Purity Council
wxid

[therock1811]

Here's KOW's story about the 1987 blizzard in MD:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=4729&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=0

[wxid]

Nice stuff!!!