Warm in the East?

[Tip]

Both the European and American models (EC and GFS) are showing a strong upper level ridge over the southeast at day 10. If this verifies, the first half of Novemeber should be warm in the East.

http://www.sca.uqam.ca/models/ecmwf_ame ... 9panel.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_240s.gif

[Stormchaser16]

It is very likely, but again, this is likely just a short term variation in the longer term pattern which favors a trough in the east. Currently in support of a warm November would be the analogs for one, and two, we are seeing the breakdown of the ridge in the west. The pattern for the last year has favored a trough in the east, and there is nothing major to suggest that the longer scale pattern will change that.

[donsutherland1]

The computer guidance is looking pretty good on this when one considers teleconnections and the evolving synoptic situation. Teleconnections argue for just such ridging to develop downstream in response to the Pacific trough that is likely around that time (PNA is likely to go negative around or near November 1 and hold there for at least 6-10 days).

At the same time, the NAO is likely to go positive around the 1st as well, something that the GFS and Ensembles have now caught onto in the past few days.

Consequently, it's probably a pretty good bet that readings will average above normal in the East during the November 1-15 period.

Where some questions exist is whether the warmth persists into at least part of the second half of the month, when or if there could be a reversal to below normal readings.

I'm not yet ready to commit to early ideas that I'm examining for the second half of November, so I'll leave it as Stephanie did in another post with regard to that timeframe: "stay tuned."

For now, there's plenty of excitement even if the pattern is breaking for the warmer i.e., the big rainstorm that will soak the eastern third of the USA Monday, possible snowstorm for parts of the Rockies later this week, etc.

[Stephanie]

It'll be good to see the snow pack building in the Rockies. I think that the snow was supposed to affect even Montana where it is also very dry.

Stay tuned...

[JCT777]

Yes, it does look like the next several weeks (at least) will have above normal temps in the Eastern U.S. This is fine by me, so long as it does not last beyond mid-December. By then, I will want cold and snow.