my winter forecast is out now

[blizzard20]

The winter 2003/2004 forecast for Southern New england/ Ny/ Ohio Valley area/ Mid Altantic area/ Northern New England area and Midwest area.


Big Question about this winter weather pattern for USA area.
How much cold air, snowfall and warm weather. I will try to do the best in the winter forecast . Looks like the storm track will be tough for the usa but looks like a two storm tracks one through the Ohio Valley area and the other one near the east coast but could have some inland runners this year .



MidWest area winter forecast 2003-2004
Temp normal to 10 below normal for the winter with snowfall just 5 inches above normal but could be lot more if they get a blizzard or big storm.
Nov / Dec
warm Nov with temputure 7 above normal for Nov then turning colder by dec with normal temp in dec. Snowfall below normal for Nov except maybe a snowstorm the third week . Dec will above normal at the begining then normal towards the end of the Dec with icestorm and two snowstorms.
Jan/ Feb cold first part then warm middle then turning very warm then back to normal temp.
snowfall dry Jan but and two storms for the eastern part. Feb a blizzard in southern part in the middle of the month of feb . Temp near normal for Feb.
Total snowfall near 50 inches Northern part and
65 in the southern part.

Mid Altantic area winter forecast 2003-2004
Nov/Dec warm Nov with some snow towards the last week. last week turning colder for the area.
Dec normal with some colder weeks but only 5 degrees colder . a big rain storm / could turn to a ice storm . a white New years day.green christmas .
three snowstorms over 5inches possible

Jan/Feb warm the second week then very cold by third week of Jan temp averge to below normal icestorm and one snowstorm in Jan .
Feb will be snowey with chance of blizzard normal temp . except northern part will be 12 degrees below norm in temp.
snowfall for the winter will be 10 inches above normal except the eastern part and Northern part will be lot more snowfall like 12- 16 inches above normal if they get some big storms.

Ny state area winter forecast
Nov/ Jan
warm first two weeks then normal back to colder the week of 16 Nov some snow showers, one snowstorm in the southern part with very heavy snow or ice up North in Nov.
Dec icestorm in western part and heavy snow in the eastern part but dry in the Northern part for the first three weeks. near normal temp for dec except the eastern Ny will be below normal for the last two weeks.
Jan/Feb
Temp normal for Jan then well below normal for feb
snowfall four snowfall storms over 5inches total for both months with ice storm in jan. eastern Ny 20 inches above normal for feb.

Southern New england area winter forecast 2003/2004
Tough forecast for the winter 2003/2004
will be out soon

Northern New england will be out soon







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[LehighValleyForcaster]

I am not even going to try and give a long range outlook winter forecast for the Lehigh Valley or the East coast yet.

Too many elements are in play right now.

I enjoy reading long range forecast from individuals who stick their neck out to come up with some idea of what may develope but that's not for me. I got burnt to many times in the past from doing that.

Unless I know for sure that something will hit our area. if it be a snowstorm or heavy thunderstorms, then I will so post it.


We are expecting intense thunderstorms with damaging winds on Monday due to another front moving thru here.

I know winter is trying very hard to move in but elements are keeping that from happening right now.

I still feel and think we will have a late start with winter and a early spring.

My thoughts will change only if the elements change and I don't see that happening for awhile.

[Stormchaser16]

LVF with all due respect i cannot disagree more with you. El Nino is LONG gone. Take a look at SSTA patterns, we saw the dissperance of it LONG ago, actually we dipped into a La Nina for a short time over the late spring into summer. Since then we have been neutral. El Nino may develop in a weak phase later this winter, however that may not even happen. Second of all the pattern that has persisted for the last year has very much been winter like. With a few variations and exceptions, a trough has persisted on the east coast for the last year. With a huge ridge dominating the west. Hence the very dry conditions. As with any long term pattern, there are short term variations, but overall the long scale pattern very much favors a winter like situation. This is obvious with the very cold air we started seeing back in September and throughout part of October already. Technically winter has already started for many, with some areas seeing measurable snows already, and the first flakes all the way down into Jersey.

[LehighValleyForcaster]

Thanks for your input StormChaser.

This is where I draw a line with forecasting.

It is yet too early to really predict what will happen this winter.

I know there are allot of ppl out there that are doing it but as for me I am going to sit on it and wait to see if conditions out there change.

I still think we are going to have a late start winter here in the Valley and a early spring.

I have seen several patterns in the past that have brought warmer temps into our region and I think this may be one of the years.

I know we will get some snow around here but how much is difficult to say and if we do get it how long it will stick around. I also know the temps around our region will be up and down. I know we will get cold spells but nothing that will last for days on in. I expect our temps to be above normal with dryer conditions. I also know the mountain regions are always colder and those areas always see the most snowfall. There are other parts of the country that always see allot of snow as well. I am only referring to my region here in the Valley. The Northern part of my region always get more snow then here, I should know this because I use to live in the Poconos and we would get hit heavy when the Valley ended up with nothing. This is what I am talking about.

I have read many reports in regards to what we may expect this winter and most of them are still keeping it open in a round about way so that they are not accused of going out on a limb being wrong in their forecast.


These are my thoughts and feelings right now but again thanks for your feed back.

[Stormchaser16]

Your opinion may turn out to be correct in the end, and im sorry if i came off quite strong but that was before i got some morning cofee lol. But i think that with the canadian snowcover now filling in quite nicely, winter may start just on time( on time being mid december) however early to mid december by analogs, may feature some cold and snow as well.

[Stormsfury]

Your opinion may turn out to be correct in the end, and im sorry if i came off quite strong but that was before i got some morning cofee lol. But i think that with the canadian snowcover now filling in quite nicely, winter may start just on time( on time being mid december) however early to mid december by analogs, may feature some cold and snow as well.

Or Morning Mountain Dew (caffeine) for me. I understand how that works!
The Canadian Snowcover always increases this time of year anyway, but what I'd like to see is how the snowcover compares to normal.

Last 30 days Northern Hemisphere Snowcover.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/SNOW/DATA/nhem-1mo-loop.html

[Stormchaser16]

Yes SF, i know it fills in anyway, but to this point it has been well below average, at least now it seems to be rising to near normal levels, and should likely not remain below average as we head into colder months.

[Stormsfury]

Yes SF, i know it fills in anyway, but to this point it has been well below average, at least now it seems to be rising to near normal levels, and should likely not remain below average as we head into colder months.

I wasn't sure if it was below normal or not. Do you have a link that depicts the normal snowcover?

SF

[JCT777]

Nice forecast, blizz. Looks like this winter will at least be interesting. Nothing like the boring winters of the late 90's (97 through 99) and 2001-02.