Wind Advisory and Wild Fire Watch!!

[azsnowman]

Well, cold temps have FINALLY arrived here in the White Mountains along with a Wild Fire Watch :o In the 38 years I've lived on this mountain, I've "NEVER" seen a Wild Fire Watch/Warning issued this time O' year......."This ISN'T GOOD!" The Haines Index (moisture level in the fine fuels, pine needles, etc) is at a 4.5 this morning, normally this time of year, the Haines is at a 0.05 to 1.0 :o

AFDFLG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
400 AM MST SAT OCT 25 2003 COR

COR TO ADD ZONE 9 TO FREEZE WARNING TONIGHT

.SYNOPSIS...A VERY DRY COLD FRONT HAS MOVED ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA
FRIDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND VIGOROUS NORTHEAST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND SUNDAY BEHIND THIS FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM TO NORMAL VALUES ON MONDAY AND LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
DAYTIME NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK...BUT AT MUCH
LOWER SPEEDS THAN THIS WEEKEND.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE WELL ADVERTISED COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA
OVERNIGHT...WITH DEW POINT READING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AT SEVERAL
SFC OB SITES AT 2 AM.

THREE CONCERNS FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE 1) SURFACE WINDS FOR THE
WEEKEND...2) WINDS/LOW RH AND FIRE WEATHER 3) THE FIRST REAL FREEZE FOR
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEAST AZ. WE AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS
SHIFT THAT WINDS SAT NIGHT WILL DECOUPLE IN THE VALLEY AREAS NORTH
OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WARNING FOR THIS AREA.

BACK TO THE WIND ISSUE. THE CURRENT LARGE SCALE... HIGH AMPLITUDE WX
PATTERN OF A RIDGE IN THE PAC NW...NORTHERLY FLOW INTO AZ AND THEN A
TROF OVER NEW MEXICO TYPICALLY BRINGS STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS TO THE
REGION. SPECIFICS FOR THIS WEEKEND INCLUDE A NE/SW ORIENTED PRESSURE
GRADIENT OF 20 MB BETWEEN THE FOUR CORNERS AND YUMA TONIGHT...VERY
GOOD COLD ADVECTION AT H7 INTO THE CWA THROUGHOUT TODAY...AND H7
WINDS INCREASING TONIGHT TO BTWN 35 AND 45 KTS WITH FASTEST SPEEDS
IN THE WEST. THIS SET UP LOOKS GOOD FOR GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH IN SOME
LOCALIZED DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS (SUNNYSIDE IN NORTH FLAGSTAFF AND THE
SOUTHERN BRADSHAW MTNS) TONIGHT. SUNDAY LOOKING WINDY AS WELL AS THE
SFC P GRADIENT STILL TIGHT AND THE JETSTREAM IN THE AREA FOR MOST OF
THE DAY. BY MONDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE CELL CURRENTLY IN THE PAC NW
IS EXPANDING INTO THE GREAT BASIN...WITH A RELAXING OF THE THE WIND
AND P GRADIENTS OVER NRN AZ.

REGARDING FIRE WX...AREA NATIONAL FORESTS ARE NOW REPORTING HIGH TO VERY
HIGH FIRE DANGERS. A FIRE WX WATCH FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS THIS
WEEKEND WENT OUT EARLIER. WE WILL REVIEW THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING DATA
BEFORE MAKING A DECISION WHETHER TO UPGRADE TO A WARNING FOR TODAY.

EXTENDED...TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOK DRY AND SEASONABLE
AS NORTHERN AZ REMAINS IN NORTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE EASTERN
TROUGH/PACIFIC RIDGE. THE LATEST EC HAS COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE GFS AND BOTH SHOW A TROF DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
THRUSDAY WITH A GOOD FROPA IN NRN AZ FRIDAY. DON'T SEE ANY SIG
MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT AT PRESENT BUT HAVE LOWERED MAX TMEPS
SOME FOR THURS AND FIRDAY.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING TONIGHT AZ ZONES 9/10/12/13/14/40
FIRE WEATHER WATCH TODAY AND SUNDAY ALL FGZ ZONES.


Dennis :o

[Colin]

Stay safe!!!! :o

[montrealboy]

I don't have the saved live footage (picture or video) where apparently during a live shot at midday EDT of the forest fires east of Los Angeles, a fire tornado almost caught a CNN reporter. Please post the link here.

[montrealboy]

I don't have the saved live footage (picture or video) where apparently during a live shot at midday EDT of the forest fires east of Los Angeles, a fire tornado almost caught a CNN reporter. Please post the link here.

Correction: Not a tornado but a whirlwind is created by the 'devil winds' outside of Los Angeles.

[montrealboy]

Wildfire nears Los Angeles suburbs

Forest Service: 12,000 homes affected by evacuation orders

Saturday, October 25, 2003 Posted: 2129 GMT ( 5:29 AM HKT)

RANCHO CUCAMONGA, California (CNN) -- Thousands of suburban residents east of Los Angeles left their homes in the hands of firefighters Saturday, fleeing the highway-hopping flames of the Grand Prix fire.

http://edition.cnn.com/2003/US/West/10/ ... index.html

[Stephanie]

They're also concerned that when the raining season DOES start they will then be threatened with mudslides.

I hope that the winds die down soon and that the trough does bring relief to the people in the SW!

[montrealboy]

Wildfires Continue to Ravage Southern California

Saturday, October 25, 2003

RANCHO CUCAMONGA, Calif. — A blaze ripped through the highly developed foothills of the San Bernardino Mountains (search) on Saturday, joining several other fires that have devastated the region and forced thousands of people to leave their homes.

The latest wildfire, which erupted at around 9 a.m. about 30 miles east of Los Angeles, destroyed 50 homes and threatened hundreds of others while hopscotching through dense housing tracts.



http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,101220,00.html

[weatherlover427]

It is really smoky and there is lots of ash in the air here. I am in NW Orange County, CA; about 1 hour away from Rancho Cucamonga. I took some pics of today's con ditions and I will have them online as soon as my film gets developed.

[HeartofNC]

Smoke is nasty to breath but makes for pretty sunsets ~

[Corona]

When it's that dry and the Santa Annas kick in, it's a recipie for wildfire. Looks like Colorado Springs though is seeing snow flurries against a backdrop of cool red and orange trees. The fall systems are setting up for a big change so here it comes.

[Valkhorn]

What's the saddest is most of these fires could have been prevented. The one near Rancho Cucamonga was set by an arsonist, and I think it was today that the CHP saw a van throwing out lit matches into the brush.

People are rediculous. I don't know why someone would WANT to start a fire and what kind of diseased mind thinks it's a good thing to do.

Thankfully the fire department is monitoring the other wooded areas in and around LA.

But you know it's interesting because when man and nature collide something has to give, and these fires are a regular occurrance so I'm not sure why people keep building into fire areas.

[azsnowman]

Check out the dewpoint.....I just pulled this off NOAA/NWS Flag, I mean.....a "-2" dewpoint???

Show Low Municipal



Date/Time Oct 25 07:50PM MDT
Weather Clear
Visibility 30 mile(s)
Temperature 50 F
Dewpoint -2 F
Relative Humidity 11%
Wind N 14 MPH
Pressure 30.26 in


Dennis

[azsnowman]

I saw that video clip in the news last night of the dust devil......that took me back the Rodeo Chediski Fire. We had firestorms during that fire that reached heights over 200 FEET!! Firestorms like that pick up burning pine cones, branches etc and fling them over 1 MILE, that's the biggest reason for the fire spreading so quick!

I hope they can get an upper hand on the fire in Calif.......the outlook looks pretty grim however, forecast winds today are suppose to hit the 30-40 MPH range with higher gusts in and around the fire!

Dennis

[TexasStooge]

All of North Texas is under a Fire Watch today (Including my area)

[azsnowman]

I've got gusts to over 45 MPH "ALREADY!"

WIND ADVISORY
BLACK MESA AREA-CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
KAIBAB PLATEAU-LITTLE COLORADO RVR VLY IN APACHE CO-
LITTLE COLORADO RVR VLY IN NAVAJO CO-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF 264-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-WHITE MOUNTAINS-
YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-
537 AM MST THU OCT 30 2003

...WIND ADVISORY FROM 800 AM MST TO 700 PM MST THIS EVENING...

SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE MORNING HOURS
WITH GUSTS INCREASING UP TO 50 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET.

$$

TC

Dennis

[azsnowman]

"HOLY CRAP!" I just had a PEAK gust of *60.3 MPH* about 4 minutes ago, this is nuckin' futz!

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ

325 PM MST THU OCT 30 2003

...WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA FOR THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...

...WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL OF NORTHERN ARIZONA ON FRIDAY...

.A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE GREAT BASIN CONTINUES
TO PRODUCE STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE AFTER SUNSET...EXCEPT FOR AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF
THE SAN FRANCISCO PEAKS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ON
FRIDAY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO
35 MPH...GUSTING FROM 40 TO 55 MPH.

TRAVELERS IN NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR
STRONG AND GUSTY CROSS-WINDS...AS WELL AS AREAS OF BLOWING DUST AND
SAND. PORTIONS OF I-40 FROM SELIGMAN TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER WILL
BE PARTICULARLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO THESE CROSS-WINDS.

AZZ004>008-010-011-013-014-016>018-037>040-310600-
BLACK MESA AREA-CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
COCONINO PLATEAU-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-
KAIBAB PLATEAU-LITTLE COLORADO RVR VLY IN APACHE CO-
LITTLE COLORADO RVR VLY IN NAVAJO CO-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF 264-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-WHITE MOUNTAINS-
YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-
325 PM MST THU OCT 30 2003

...WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL 7 PM MST TONIGHT...
...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MST UNTIL 7 PM MST ON FRIDAY...

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH
OVERNIGHT.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN DURING DAY ON FRIDAY. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH LATE FRIDAY
MORNING...CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.



Dennis