Weekend/Earlyweek Storm????

[Guest]

To begin it looks like quite a system on Tap for the eastern US affecting areas from as far west maybe as the Midwest and from there south to the Gulf and east to the Coast....................

This system if still showing well on both the Euro and as well the GFS and as of right now Develop the Storm in GA and takes it up along the apps (Eastside) and into Western NY and into Canada leaving behind a huge upper level low in the TN Valley that will slowly make its way to the north.

Big question is who gets what?????? Right now as far as the severe weather goes the areas i would consider at most risk would be right along the coast especially the SE coast and as well in the NE..........Alot of this depends on the final track of the Low.................Look for great added input on this aspect of the storm from Stormsfury and MrBob!

Which as well the Track of the low will determin who gets snow and how much farther to the west....................Right now the models arent showing much precip on the back side of the low which i question somewhat especially the GFS but as well keep most of the precip from Indiana/Ohio line east?????
I say i doubt the precip output because of the Storm set up which shows a high to the North and Northeast of the system which IMO (Depending somewhat of the strength of the high) along with the strong storm should help to pull alot of moisture around the Low from the Atlantic back into the Lakes/Midwest and Ohio Valley.....................Either way i think a few from perhaps Chicago east to Ohio and north (More or less from about the OH River north.....best chance along and north of i70) will get some accumulating snows from this system especially up in Michigan with added lake enhancement/effect..................Im not even gonna make any kind of attempt at this point of who will get what if any snow from this system.................Still to early imo to make a call on that............Stay tuned for more on this system...................I will have some maps out later on this.............

Add or share your thought on what you think may happen with the system....................

[Colin]

Great analysis...I'll be watching this system very closely, and of course I'll be looking forward to your discussions!

[wx247]

There seems to be another piece of energy coming into Eastern Missouri and into Ill/Indiana Sun. night into Monday. If this has some moisture to work with the cold air is already in place.... BAM! Not a whopper, but some flakes possibly.

[IndianaWx]

I am DEFINATLEY watching this system very closely. I can't wait for some accumulating snows. It will PROBABLY be under an inch where lake effect/enhancement doesn't occur. It really depends on how long it takes for the snow to cool the ground. Sometimes it really cools fast, sometimes it takes forever. Temperatures will be RISKY, if the temperatures cool just a little bit, we may be talking about a Rain/Snow mainly and then snow showers at the end. Right now though, it looks like it will be rain initially then snow at the end. Who knows. Tomorrow school dismissal is 11:30...so I will be able to spend more time looking at this.

[LehighValleyForcaster]

Well.........it still looks like the Valley will be in mild and somewhat of a warm trend like condition for at least the next week or so.

Now this morning brought us some -mas: hat type colder conditions of 28 degrees, BUT,

there is magic :34: in the air but again still too early to write about.

Our mountain region will see snow flurries to a lite dusting but no more then that.

The battle :11: of the models are at work and showing us images that seem to change a bit from day to day but something is working its way around.

I will just stand guard :knight: and wait for conditions to unfold.

[mathias1979]

I don't know about this first system. While Mid-west forecasting isn't really my strongpoint. Right now it seems temperature are borderline. The Canadian currently agreeing that precip doesn't really get past the Ohio/Indiana line. So unless the storm tracks a little more west, I don't think there will be any significant precip all the way back into Illinois. And of course, if the track does shift a bit more west, then thicknesses won't be quite as low. I remain doubtful of any accumulating snows with this storm, but we'll wait and see.

Now, both the 00z GFS and Canadian have an interesting feature at 108-120 hours moving over the midwest. The Euro keeps this a bit further to the north. But if the GFS and Canadian were to pan out, maybe something for Monday night into Tuesday for you Midwest folks?

-Matt

[wxnut]

That's quite an interesting posting style, Lehigh Valley Forcaster. I'm not sure yet though, whether to give it a or a :broll: .

[LehighValleyForcaster]

Thanks WX.

I will not be posting all messages like this though.

I am waiting to see what events may unfold.

I will only do it this way if I have very little to say to keep it interesting.

Thanks again for your comments.

[JCT777]

Based on what I have seen and read, it looks like northeast IN, northern OH and the lower peninsula of MI could see accumulating snow from this system. The biggest threat for significant snow is in MI.

[Stephanie]

TWC has for my area on Monday "Rain/Thunder/Wind". They're suggesting a low is coming up the coast.

[Mr Bob]

Well, the 12z GFS is just a mess....It is significantly weaker with the first shortwave to carve out the trough and move up the eastern seaboard...It then takes the second short wave, which is to supply the Southern Apps with some snow, and swings it wildly negative out across the Carolinas into the Atlantic...the surface low moves across the Southeast into the Carolinas and out to sea, leaving the Carolina Coastal Plain with some rain and snow mix!!! Yikes...Furthermore, the GFS digs the next system further west and quickly abolishes the trough in the east making the cold wave have much less bite in the southeast. The previous run of the ECMWF remained consistent with itself and would still be quite an obnoxious storm for much of the east. The GFS seems to not be able to handle the strong Pacific jet very well and so its solutions continue to swing from extreme to extreme. Once again I will end my discussion with...let's wait for tonight's Euro....heavy sigh....

[therock1811]

AM forecast from the Cinci CBS station had a snowflake on Monday AM....interesting!!!

[Colin]

TWC has for my area on Monday "Rain/Thunder/Wind". They're suggesting a low is coming up the coast.

Come on Stephanie, it's TWC...

[therock1811]

That's what I was talking about above......an ice pellet in there too!

[donsutherland1]

I agree with an Appalachians track for the low that will be developing and that it will become quite intense (975-985 mb) as it heads toward the area near Rochester, NY and then into Canada.

I don't think one can discount the possibility of secondary cyclogenesis somewhere along the East Coast, particularly the Mid-Atlantic region. Perhaps this is what TWC was picking up on?

Overall, this storm should be quite a rainmaker for the Eastern third of the USA with rainfall amounts in excess of a inch running from the Ohio Valley to Coastal New England, along with locally higher amounts. Central PA, northwestern NJ, central and eastern NY (not LI), VT, all but southeastern NH, and western ME should see the heaviest rainfall, generally 1.50"-3.00" along with locally higher amounts.

The strong high (1035+) sitting off New Foundland should help bring Atlantic moisture into the picture, along with a tightening pressure gradient as the developing storm heads for western New York.

Finally, while I believe the back edge of the storm could see some frozen precipitation, I'm not bullish on any appreciable snowfall for Chicago at this time.

[Mr Bob]

The Euro as well as everything else blew up yesterday in the face of a howling Pac Jet...going to be a long winter for mid range (6-14 day) prognosticators if this kind of stuff keeps up!

Mean time...there will be a few t-storms rolling along the Gulf Coast but now the severe weather will be mild...a good dose fo rain and very little in the way frozen precip in the east with the models backing away from the large deep closed low solution....heavy sigh....

In fact now we are looking at a very warm start to the beginning of November if current model trends continue...both the GFS and the Euro are deepening the trough out west while pumping up a substantial ridge in the eastern states by next weekend...

[Guest]

The Euro as well as everything else blew up yesterday in the face of a howling Pac Jet...going to be a long winter for mid range (6-14 day) prognosticators if this kind of stuff keeps up!

Mean time...there will be a few t-storms rolling along the Gulf Coast but now the severe weather will be mild...a good dose fo rain and very little in the way frozen precip in the east with the models backing away from the large deep closed low solution....heavy sigh....

In fact now we are looking at a very warm start to the beginning of November if current model trends continue...both the GFS and the Euro are deepening the trough out west while pumping up a substantial ridge in the eastern states by next weekend...

Yep MrBob it seems we wont be seeing such a huge storm after all ..................The models seem to start backing off of this yesterday and continue to do so today..................IMO This really stinks for the reason you stated above with mid range forecasting..................And yes i seen the trough out west your talking about as well the models are hinting at for the begining of November a warm up for the eastern areas of the country (Thats to be seen as well)...........................This is gonna be one long winter if this trend continues with the models blowing everything up in the mid range only to end up with something different.........................Whats scarey is how now it seems the Euro is pulling this crap on us now.............Not good at all!!!!!!

Yea there may be some scattered severe weather and a little wintry precip but nothing like that was advertised by these very SCREWED UP MODELS...............What a big dissapointment forecast wise.....................Well atleast the snowpack is building nicely now up in Canada....................

[Stormsfury]

Yep ... that ol' howling PAC jet...

no closed 500mb low, no neg tilit ...

[Stormsfury]

However, I was QUITE impressed with the 1055 MB HIGH in Western Canada on Day 6...and some building cold air ... but not as impressed with the severe wx setup now though it can't be totally ruled out since there's still quite a bit of wind energy expected and I can't totally rule out some of that wind energy being transported down to the surface in stronger convection (probably squall line related).

Day 6 EURO N HEM MSLP.
http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen ... &cu=latest

Day 6 Canadian View of MSLP/Temperatures at 850mb
http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen ... &cu=latest

[donsutherland1]

Some changes in the modeling as noted in the thread...

Less intensity but the potential for heavy rainfall still looking good along and to the right of the storm's track.

As noted yesterday, this storm should be quite a rainmaker for the Eastern third of the USA with rainfall amounts in excess of a inch running from the Ohio Valley to Coastal New England, along with locally higher amounts. Central PA, northwestern NJ, central and eastern NY (not LI), VT, all but southeastern NH, and western ME should see the heaviest rainfall, generally 1.50"-3.00" along with locally higher amounts.

The potential for some widely scattered thunderstorms to the right of the storm's track also exists.

Looking farther out...

The idea of normal to somewhat above normal readings for the November 1-15 period in the Eastern U.S. is gaining credence with the emphasis increasing on the above-normal warmth.

The NAO is rising--should be positive by month's end/early November and stay there for some time--and the PNA is falling--should go negative around time the NAO goes positive and then hold there for at least 6-10 days.

Both the Ensembles and GFS forecasts for these teleconnection indices are supportive of the changes described above.

The overall pattern is also likely to remain progressive through at least the first ten days of November.

Will the warmth relative to normal from the first half of the month persist through at least part of the second half of November in the East?