NOAA's Winter Outlook

[Stormsfury]

http://www.noaa.com/s2100.htm

[breeze]

*sigh......equal chances....LOL, guess I just
have to PRAY FOR SNOW!

Thanks, Storm!

[Guest]

*sigh......equal chances....LOL, guess I just
have to PRAY FOR SNOW!

Thanks, Storm!

Let you in on a little secret Breeze..........I have a hard time remembering the last time these people predicted Below normal Temps for anyone in thier winter outlook.......................I would just take it with a grain of salt right now.....................More or less dont bet the farm on it.................Just noaa as usual playing it safe and not wanting to commit to anything as usual..............

BTW anyone who can tell me the last time these people were right on thier Winter outlook???????

Dont get me wrong i appericate what they do i just kinda wish they would spend a little more time on stuff like this or just dont do it at all..........

[Stormsfury]

*sigh......equal chances....LOL, guess I just
have to PRAY FOR SNOW!

Thanks, Storm!

Let you in on a little secret Breeze..........I have a hard time remembering the last time these people predicted Below normal Temps for anyone in thier winter outlook.......................I would just take it with a grain of salt right now.....................More or less dont bet the farm on it.................Just noaa as usual playing it safe and not wanting to commit to anything as usual..............

BTW anyone who can tell me the last time these people were right on thier Winter outlook???????

Dont get me wrong i appericate what they do i just kinda wish they would spend a little more time on stuff like this or just dont do it at all..........

The outlook is very, very bland and probably in a lack of words, non-commital. Basically nowhere near the tropical season outlook given this year. Honestly, I just think they don't really know what to expect.

It could likely be very changeable from one extreme to the other which in the end just balances out and is pretty much ... normal. Normal basically equals a bunch of abnormalities, anyway.

SF

[wx247]

Agreed Storms.

[Guest]

Well here was last years outlook...............As you can see WAY Warm as well!!!!!LOL

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories/im ... 21202d.jpg

[wx247]

WOAH! That freaked my comp out. Can you make the image smaller? If not, no big deal but it just makes my screen freak.

[Stormsfury]

Well here was last years outlook...............As you can see WAY Warm as well!!!!!LOL

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories/im ... 21202d.jpg

That was on the premise of a forecasted stronger El Niño last year which weakened dramatically after the November peak.

SF

[wx247]

Thanks KOW and by the way... thanks for posting it. It was just a "little off" for here.

[breeze]

I know.....the non-committing thing...gets a
met in lots of deep "stuff" if they CALL it....
We'll just wait and see!

[Amanzi]

I truly hope they are wrong ! My protion of Florida is under the possible drought section! Not what we need. Even though I would love to experience a cold winter (for florida anyway) I would rather it turn out warm and wet than heading towards another drought!

Breeze I went to NC last year for some snow, this year we want to head to your part of the world, so I will be praying right along side you for some snow

[JCT777]

The "non-forecast" doesn't say much of anything. I would sooner trust Joe B, WxRisk, Larry Cosgrove or even the wooly worms!

[roarusdogus]

Well here was last years outlook...............As you can see WAY Warm as well!!!!!LOL

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories/im ... 21202d.jpg

That was on the premise of a forecasted stronger El Niño last year which weakened dramatically after the November peak.

SF

I disagree. The whole time they were saying a weak to moderate El Nino, which is what it turned out to be. I agree with many others from various private sectors and BBs that the CPC has a bad habit of only looking to the Pacific for seasonal forecasting, when in fact the Atlantic can play a big role as well. I remember last year they made a mention of the NAO which they said can't be forecasted more than a couple weeks ahead of time. Some may argue that but I suppose I can agree with them there. Then they said they expected it to be mostly positive because the it has been positve more the past decade. I agree that it was positive a lot of time in the '90s but as it's definitely headed the other way now that the PDO has changed cycles. Do they even look at climate history when they do these outlooks other than ENSO? It sure doesn't seem like it.

[weatherlover427]

Why does it always say warmer than normal every year for California? :?

[StormCrazyIowan]

Since I am on the line of PERSISTING DROUGHT/ PERSISTING DROUGHT, SOME IMPROVEMENT, I think I will choose not to take this with a grain of salt either! (Wishful thinking- hope it works out better than it did for the Cubs! )

[GAStorm]

From everything I have read, this will probably be the toughest winter to predict! Could work out to our advantage for a change. It would be nice to get at least one big storm, and have an outcome like the pic in my signature line below!

[Stephanie]

There's been some articles in the news and papers as how Mother Nature has been providing few clues to work with this year for forecasting the winter. But, I already knew that from reading it here first!!!

[JCT777]

I remember last year they made a mention of the NAO which they said can't be forecasted more than a couple weeks ahead of time. Some may argue that but I suppose I can agree with them there. Then they said they expected it to be mostly positive because the it has been positve more the past decade. I agree that it was positive a lot of time in the '90s but as it's definitely headed the other way now that the PDO has changed cycles. Do they even look at climate history when they do these outlooks other than ENSO? It sure doesn't seem like it.

Good points. I think we will have enough periods with a negative NAO this upcoming winter to help keep the eastern US from having above normal temps overall - which is why I am thinking temps will be close to normal (within 1 degree C on average). Plus I believe that the overall trend of troughs in the east will continue through most of winter - bringing at least slightly above normal precip to most places in the east.

[stormraiser]

The Washington Post calls it "A Hazy Forecast"

And I quote..
"Don't be surprised if the upcoming winter is just like last year's: colder and snowier than normal in the Northeast. Then again, don't be surprised if it's the exact opposite of last year: warmer and drier. What if it's somewhere in between, with normal temperatures and normal precipitation?

Well, don't be surprised by that either.

That was the message yesterday from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, whose National Weather Service forecasters released their 2003-04 winter outlook. A dominant theme of the 12-paragraph statement could be summed up in a single phrase: Who knows?"

and the link for the whole story
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/ar ... Oct16.html

[grentz7721]

NOAA calling for a weak El Nino. The Eastern U.S. should see some snow
and cold temps this winter. Looks like it'll be a good one.