Texas Winter 2015-2016

[Texas Snowman]

The Fourth of July, one of my favorite holidays of the year! BBQ with the family, an ice cold watermelon, swimming in the pool with the kids and fireworks tonight with the family.

Happy Independence Day everyone!

Now, once we get beyond the Fourth, my thoughts start turning towards the approach of fall and eventually, wintertime.

Here's hoping for a winter season that will make everyone happy (well, except maybe for Wxman 57 ).

[tstorm98]

I think it will be cool and very wet due to strong to super el nino.

[Tireman4]

Here is hoping for a cold and snowy one!!!

[Portastorm]

Did someone say: WINTER??!!

[Texas Snowman]

Did someone say: WINTER??!!

Shhhhhhh! Don't let you know who have any idea that we're having this discussion about wintertime during his summertime rule!

For what it's worth, I've heard rumors on the street that there is a secret plan in the works to get some cold air from Canada and the Pineapple Express to collide somewhere over scenic SW Austin this winter.

Mum's the word!

[Ptarmigan]

I look forward to a cold and snowy winter. Perhaps, an epic winter.

[Ntxw]

This coming winter could be edge of the blade for us. The El Nino is a two sided mask, on one hand we love the subtropical jet and the below normal conditions. The problem is if it is a super El Nino, and it is east based, will it flood Canada and Alaska with overwhelming warmth as strong El Nino's do. Of course all of that could be masked by the state of the EPO/PNA which the +PDO is on our side for now.

[gpsnowman]

I'm so excited, and I just can't hide it. I'm about to lose control and I think I like it. Okay, time to stop channeling my inner Pointer Sisters. Winter is a long way off but I like the prospect of a good one. Winter is so wonderful.

[orangeblood]

Long range models for this coming winter look very promising if you're a fan of cold/stormy, phenomenal blocking over the pole with cold anomalies directly over the southern plains....

[wxman57]

You guys should be outside enjoying the best weather of the year. The long cold snap that started last September has finally broken - temps have reached 95 across Houston for the first time this summer. Time to celebrate!

[Tireman4]

You guys should be outside enjoying the best weather of the year. The long cold snap that started last September has finally broken - temps have reached 95 across Houston for the first time this summer. Time to celebrate!

Hey man...are you not supposed to be in the Summer section...my gracious...LOL

[Ntxw]

Any winter forecasts this year, needs to put the strong-super El Nino into consideration.

[Ptarmigan]

This coming winter could be edge of the blade for us. The El Nino is a two sided mask, on one hand we love the subtropical jet and the below normal conditions. The problem is if it is a super El Nino, and it is east based, will it flood Canada and Alaska with overwhelming warmth as strong El Nino's do. Of course all of that could be masked by the state of the EPO/PNA which the +PDO is on our side for now.

An article of interest.

Why a ‘super El Niño’ could still be a bust for California drought relief
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/cap ... ht-relief/

It talks about the warm water off the coast of Alaska as a factor.

[Texas Snowman]

Interesting note from Steve McCauley, he just posted this to his Facebook page:

"The latest data from NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) continue to show a strengthening El Nino across the Pacific as ocean temperatures continue to warm and trade winds relax. The strongest El Nino on record was back in 1997 which brought extreme weather events during the winter with very heavy rains and flooding to California, well above normal precipitation across the south along with several severe weather events including a tornado outbreak in Florida.


However, it should be kept in mind that past performance is no guarantee of future results. Interestingly, there is a large area of above-normal sea surface temperatures this year extending all the way up into the Gulf of Alaska. This feature was altogether absent in the El Nino of 1997-98. This could throw a monkey wrench into the upcoming winter outlook.

Warmer-than-normal ocean waters in the Gulf of Alaska tend to create conditions favorable for arctic air outbreaks. Couple this with warmer-than-normal temperatures in the tropical Pacific could provide the ideal setup for intense winter storms. But although it is almost certain that El Nino will persist through the upcoming winter, it is not so clear if the waters in the Gulf of Alaska will be able to maintain their warmer-than-normal status."

[gpsnowman]

Just read that. If all the stars line up just right, it could be an interesting winter. Wondering if we have ever had a strong Nino accompanied with the warm waters near Alaska. The arctic shots with moisture have been amalgamated just right the last two winters. It's early but I am hoping for a continuation of the pattern we have experienced the last two winters in combination with a strong Nino. Could be great. Since that record snowfall in Feb 2010, I often wondered if the DFW area could feasibly see a two footer. That would be awesome. Yeah, that is crazy but wow what an experience that would be. Ok back to the summer death heat. Yuck.

[Ntxw]

The mechanics this winter will be very different than the past several. The warm pool and EPO has been dominant because ENSO has been nonexistent or weak for a good 4 years. This has changed, no only is it El Nino but it is a big one. The Gulf of Alaska will eventually cave to colder waters, the process is already happening due to the classic Aleutian low that El Nino loves to intensify. Happens in every major Nino. Key is to get the ridging to stay in NW Canada. This is why Decembers are blowtorches in El Nino years because Nino flexing is strongest. A notable exception was 2009 when the AO tanked to record levels.

[Ntxw]

Here are some visuals to help show my previous post. It is remarkable the persistence climo for the major El Nino's. Weak and even moderate events can deviate but the strong (ONI > +1.5C) are very consistent.

All of them featured a normal to mild December, likely because El Nino's peak around NDJ and Canada is flooded with warmth.



By January the El Nino's slowly weaken and their influence becomes less that allows Canada to get cold, however we still keep the roaring lingering subtropical jet.



By February the Nino continues to weaken with the seasonal jet still strong, evidenced by the anomalies



Luckily the southern tier of the US is favored to be below normal. Canonical Nino events generally behave very similar. There are often low skill in forecasting winters that bears weak ENSO events or neutral. But in strong events (strong La Nina, strong El Nino) skill becomes higher as the ENSO event imposes the classic climo that they favor below. Good confidence the upper tier of the US will experience a very mild winter while the lower tier cooler than normal.

[Texas Snowman]

Interesting read about the upcoming winter...

http://www.wsi.com/blog/traders-things-that-make-you-go-hmmmm-regarding-the-upcoming-winter

[orangeblood]

Interesting read about the upcoming winter...

http://www.wsi.com/blog/traders-things-that-make-you-go-hmmmm-regarding-the-upcoming-winter

Very interesting and telling evidence, thanks for sharing....considering this was the 2nd strongest Arctic July block since 1950 and of the top ten July arctic blocks ALL had negative AO's the following winters, I believe it's a very safe bet to assume high latitude blocking for this winter. Coupled with a strong El Nino, things could get very interesting across the southern plains this winter!!!

[Texas Snowman]

I don't want to jinx anything. But maybe it really will be the winter of discontent for you know who.

And a dreamy winter scenario for Portastorm and all of our friends in central and SE Texas. They need some snow and cold this winter!