NE Winter Storm / Blizzard

[cycloneye]

The models are showing a rather deep low pressure developing for early next week. If things are below freezing and the track is close to the coast,then a good nor'easter will move thru.

[cycloneye]

We are in the middle of winter and the snowfall in the NE region is below normal. Will winter really come with full force in the next few weeks? Well,Phil did not see shadow so there you have the answer if you believe him.

http://www.weather.com/news/weather-win ... 1?pageno=2

Only Pittsburgh, Pa. and Burlington, Vt. earned our top grade in the region. Burlington's biggest snow day was from Winter Storm Euclid, which dumped more than a foot of snow in late December. Pittsburgh saw back-to-back 4.9 inch snowstorms in late December from Winter Storm Euclid and Winter Storm Freyr.

As for the I-95 corridor, we failed just about everybody.

Through January 31, snowfall was less than 50 percent of the average-to-date in D.C., Baltimore, Md., Philadelphia, Pa., New York City and Boston, Mass.

The Big Apple had a fast start to the season with 4.7 inches of snow from Winter Storm Athena in early November, but has seen just under two inches since then.

Farther north along I-95, Portland, Maine fared a little better with near-average snowfall and a grade of C.

February is a notorious month for snowstorms along the East Coast, so don't give up hope yet if you are a snow lover.

[cycloneye]

The ECMWF and GFS have a strong nor'easter for next weekend. Let's wait and see if both continue to show it in next runs.

[Ntxw]

This is going to be a blizzard for New England, even into southern New England. A foot or more of snow is very likely in Boston and even more inland. Euro has crazy amounts (20+ inches). Get ready! Get your bread and milk. Phil may very well be wrong...A little more closer to the coast track and we could be talking KU-like storm

[cycloneye]

Yikes if this 12z ECMWF pans out.

[wxman57]

12Z Euro has a large bullseye of 2.7" liquid over eastern MA Fri/Sat. That's probably 15-20" snowfall assuming a rather wet snow. Good place for it.

[Ntxw]

In addition to the snow, the models also indicate 30-50mph winds for more than 3+ hours (closer to the coast you are the stronger the winds) as the low bombs just offshore. This is criteria (assuming low visibility with the heavy snow) is blizzard-conditions, I would not be surprised if blizzard watches and and warnings were put up in a few days if the models continue the path they are going for SE New England and areas just north of Boston as well.

[cycloneye]

The long term discussion from the Boston NWS:

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... hlight=off


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* POTENTIAL FOR A VERY SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM FRI INTO EARLY SAT
* STRONG WINDS/COASTAL FLOODING ARE ALSO A CONCERN
* PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE EXACT DETAILS

DETAILS...

THURSDAY...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL ALLOW VERY COLD AIR TO
OOZE INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...DESPITE MAINLY DRY WEATHER. CAN/T
RULE OUT A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ON THE CAPE/ISLANDS
WITH COLD NORTHERLY WINDS THU AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON THU WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 20S AS NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS BRINGS COLD AIR DOWN FROM
CANADA.

FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY....

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A VERY SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SAT...BUT THE EXACT DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN. WE WILL
SAY THAT THE POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY THERE FOR A FOOT OR MORE OF SNOW
IN SOME LOCATIONS...BUT A LOT OF THINGS NEED TO BE WORKED OUT.

THERE APPEARS TO BE AN INITIAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HEADS UP
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT. THE OVER RUNNING OF THE
COLD DOME AT THE SURFACE SHOULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING
BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. LIGHT SNOW WILL PROBABLY AFFECT MUCH OF
THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT.

THE MAIN SHOW LOOKS TO OCCUR FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE ALL TRENDED TO THE ECMWF IDEA OF SECONDARY
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS STORM THEN
TRACKS NORTHEAST SOMEWHERE NEAR THE BENCHMARK AS IT RAPIDLY
INTENSIFIES. THERE ALSO IS A DECENT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
EASTERN CANADA THAT WILL BE SUPPLYING THE COLD AIR. THIS IS A
CLASSIC SETUP FOR A MAJOR WINTER STORM ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THE OTHER CONCERN WOULD BE FOR A PERIOD OF VERY STRONG WINDS ON THE
COAST WITH THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. SOME TYPE OF WIND HEADLINES
WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED.

THERE ARE TWO MAIN THINGS WE ARE A BIT CONCERNED WITH AT THIS POINT:

(1) THE FIRST AND PROBABLY THE BIGGEST CONCERN IS WILL THERE BE ANY
MIXING ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. GIVEN THE CURRENT POSITION OF THE
HIGH AND BOMBING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON THE MODELS...ODDS FAVOR
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. THERE COULD BE SOME ISSUES
FOR A TIME ALONG THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST ESPECIALLY THE
CAPE/ISLANDS. THAT IS THE SCENARIO THAT THE CURRENT MODELS ARE
ADVERTISING...BUT A 50 OR SO MILE SHIFT IN THE TRACK NORTHWEST WILL
MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR...MIXING ISSUES COULD
AFFECT A LARGER PART OF THE COASTAL PLAIN SO SOMETHING WILL HAVE TO
WATCH CLOSELY GIVEN THAT WERE STILL 72+ HOURS OUT.

(2) THE OTHER ISSUE IS DOES THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION MAKE IT BACK
ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE CURRENT MODELS INDICATE
THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL CENTERS AND
LIKELY STRONG DEFORMATION ZONE WE MAY SEE HEAVY SNOW AFFECT EVEN THE
DISTANT INTERIOR. HOWEVER...ITS POSSIBLE THAT THE MODEL TRACK COULD
SHIFT EAST WHICH WOULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF HEAVY SNOW THAT FAR
WEST.

TO SUM UP...EVERYONE IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR
THE POTENTIAL OF A VERY SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. WHILE ITS TOO EARLY TO TRY TO PIN DOWN SPECIFIC SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS AND THEIR LOCATIONS...THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A FOOT OR
MORE OF SNOW IN SOME LOCATIONS.

[cycloneye]

Winter Storm Watch issued

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
418 AM EST WED FEB 6 2013

...STRONG COASTAL STORM WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL POSSIBLE
STARTING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT LASTING INTO SATURDAY MORNING...

.A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OUT OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST LATE THURSDAY AND PASS CLOSE TO THE BENCHMARK LATE FRIDAY.
THIS STORM WILL EVENTUALLY HEAD OUT TO THE MARITIMES SOMETIME ON
SATURDAY...HOWEVER EXACT TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN. ALTHOUGH THE
TRACK OF THE STORM MAY SHIFT IN THE COMING DAYS...IT APPEARS THAT
THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT 6 INCHES
OR MORE OF SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE.

MAZ002>016-026-NHZ011-012-015-061730-
/O.NEW.KBOX.WS.A.0002.130208T0600Z-130209T1200Z/
WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-
CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-
WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-
SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-
NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-CHESHIRE NH-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-
WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLEMONT...GREENFIELD...ORANGE...
BARRE...FITCHBURG...FRAMINGHAM...LOWELL...LAWRENCE...GLOUCESTER...
CHESTERFIELD...BLANDFORD...AMHERST...NORTHAMPTON...SPRINGFIELD...
MILFORD...WORCESTER...FOXBORO...NORWOOD...CAMBRIDGE...BOSTON...
QUINCY...AYER...JAFFREY...KEENE...MANCHESTER...NASHUA...
PETERBOROUGH...WEARE
418 AM EST WED FEB 6 2013

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING.

* LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MOST OF MASSACHUSETTS
EXCEPT THE COASTAL PLAIN...CAPE AND ISLANDS.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE.

* ACCUMULATIONS...OF 6 INCHES OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE.

* TIMING...BELIEVE SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT LASTING
INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT THE STORM MAY
LINGERING INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY.

* IMPACTS...SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR VISIBILITIES FROM
DRIFTING SNOW.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS POSSIBLE AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW OF 6 OR MORE INCHES IN A 12 HOUR PERIOD...OR 8 OR MORE
INCHES IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD. ANYONE TRAVELING IN THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO MODIFY
TRAVEL PLANS SHOULD WINTER WEATHER DEVELOP.

&&

$$

DUNTEN


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
443 AM EST WED FEB 6 2013

MAZ001-025-NYZ054-061-VTZ013>015-062130-
/O.NEW.KALY.WS.A.0001.130208T1100Z-130209T1100Z/
NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-EASTERN RENSSELAER-
EASTERN COLUMBIA-BENNINGTON-WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PITTSFIELD...NORTH ADAMS...
GREAT BARRINGTON...LEE...LENOX...HOUSATONIC...HOOSICK FALLS...
CHATHAM...BENNINGTON...JACKSONVILLE...NEWFANE...BRATTLEBORO...
WEST BRATTLEBORO...BELLOWS FALLS
443 AM EST WED FEB 6 2013

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT.

* LOCATIONS...THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TACONICS OF NEW
YORK...SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND THE BERKSHIRES.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 9 INCHES OR MORE ARE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

* MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RATES...1 INCH OR MORE AN HOUR RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN FRIDAY MORNING...AND INCREASE IN
INTENSITY POTENTIALLY BY THE AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE
EVENING COMMUTE. THE HEAVY SNOW MAY CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE. THE SNOW WILL LIKELY DIMINISH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...AS THE COASTAL STORM MOVES EAST OF THE WATCH AREA.

* IMPACTS...SNOW COVERED ROADS...REDUCED VISIBILITIES...AND
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...FALLING FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S DURING
THE DAY INTO THE TEENS AT NIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

&&

$$


TAW/GJM

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
http://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY

[cycloneye]

Jim Cantore says it all about the upcomming nor'easter.

Jim Cantore ‏@JimCantore
Even though all eyes are on #Boston we could see significant accumulation and impacts for #NYC. Avoid the New England thruway Friday night!

[cycloneye]

It has been named Nemo

[Ntxw]

I think this storm will probably be at least major (3) on the NESIS scale. If it bombs a little sooner and dumps snow to Philadelphia too we might get a crippling (4). GFS is trending to euro, could become top 5 for Boston.

[cycloneye]

12z ECMWF bombs it down to 978 mbs and GFS to 980 mbs.

[cycloneye]

Updated information from the Boston NWS:

Blizzard Watch issued
[/b]
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
319 PM EST WED FEB 6 2013

...A POTENTIAL HISTORIC WINTER STORM AND BLIZZARD IS EXPECTED TO
DROP 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...

MAZ005>007-013>018-RIZ001>004-070430-
/O.CAN.KBOX.WS.A.0002.130208T0600Z-130209T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.BZ.A.0001.130208T1200Z-130209T2100Z/
CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-
WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-SUFFOLK MA-
EASTERN NORFOLK MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-
NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-
EASTERN KENT RI-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FRAMINGHAM...LOWELL...LAWRENCE...
GLOUCESTER...FOXBORO...NORWOOD...CAMBRIDGE...BOSTON...QUINCY...
TAUNTON...BROCKTON...FOSTER...SMITHFIELD...PROVIDENCE...
WEST GREENWICH...WARWICK
319 PM EST WED FEB 6 2013

...BLIZZARD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

* LOCATIONS...MUCH OF EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AS WELL AS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL RHODE ISLAND. THIS INCLUDES THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE
CORRIDOR.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 12 TO 24 INCHES.

* TIMING...LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS BY FRIDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL
INCREASE INTENSITY DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST SNOW
WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL
FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. THE WORST OF THE STORM WILL BE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES PER
HOUR POSSIBLE. TRAVEL MAY BECOME NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE WITH BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 20S.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR CONSIDERABLE
FALLING AND/OR BLOWING SNOW WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OR FREQUENT
GUSTS OVER 35 MPH AND VISIBILITIES BELOW 1/4 MILE FOR AT LEAST
3 HOURS. WHITE OUT CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAKING TRAVEL
VERY DANGEROUS. BE PREPARED TO ALTER ANY TRAVEL PLANS.

&&

$$

[cycloneye]

Is a great read the discussion by the Boston NWS:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
324 PM EST WED FEB 6 2013


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

***WINTER STORM WATCH EXPANDED TO COVER THE ENTIRE REGION FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH PERHAPS A PERIOD OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN FOR A TIME FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING***

A QUICK UPDATE WAS SENT OUT TO EXPAND A WINTER STORM WATCH TO COVER
THE ENTIRE REGION. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW IN A FOOT OR MORE
OF SNOW AFFECTING A LARGE PORTION OF THE REGION. WE HAVE BROUGHT UP
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITH THE LATEST FORECAST...BUT IT MAY NOT EVEN BE
ENOUGH IN SOME LOCALES. BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY IS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST
AND HOW FAR NORTH A TEMPORARY TRANSITION TO RAIN MAKES IT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...EVEN ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AREAS THAT CHANGE
TO RAIN MAY GET HIT HARD BY THE COLD CONVEYER BELT. NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN...AND TRAVEL MAY BECOME NEARLY
IMPOSSIBLE. WILL HAVE MUCH MORE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:

* POTENTIAL FOR A VERY SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM FRI INTO EARLY SAT
* STRONG WINDS/COASTAL FLOODING ARE ALSO A CONCERN
* PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE EXACT DETAILS

DETAILS...

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY....
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A VERY SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THE EXACT DETAILS REMAIN
UNCERTAIN...BUT CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED ENOUGH TO GO WITH A
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY THERE FOR A FOOT OR MORE OF SNOW IN SOME
LOCATIONS...BUT A LOT OF THINGS NEED TO BE WORKED OUT.

MOST OF THE 06/00Z GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
GENERAL IDEA OF A WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND MOVING NORTHEAST.
06/00Z ECMWF HAS DRAMATICALLY SLOWED THE TIMING OF ITS LOW
PRESSURE...RESULTING IN FAR MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM FOR OUR REGION.
GIVEN THIS SHIFT...LEANED AWAY FROM THE 00Z ECMWF AND FOLLOWED A
CONSENSUS SOLUTION WHICH INCLUDED THE 05/12Z ECMWF. THIS WAS TO
MINIMIZE THE TIMING DIFFERENCES AND TO SMOOTH OUT SOME OF THE
DETAILS IN THE FORECAST.

THE OVERRUNNING OF THE COLD DOME AT THE SURFACE SHOULD RESULT IN
SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. LIGHT SNOW
WILL PROBABLY AFFECT MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING...BUT AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT.

THE MAIN SHOW STILL LOOKS TO OCCUR FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. THERE ALSO IS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN
CANADA THAT WILL BE SUPPLYING THE COLD AIR. THIS IS A CLASSIC
SETUP FOR A MAJOR WINTER STORM ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
OTHER CONCERN WOULD BE FOR A PERIOD OF VERY STRONG WINDS ON THE
COAST WITH THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. SOME TYPE OF WIND
HEADLINES WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED.

THERE ARE TWO MAIN THINGS WE ARE A BIT CONCERNED WITH AT THIS
POINT...

THE FIRST AND PROBABLY THE BIGGEST CONCERN IS WILL THERE BE ANY
MIXING ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. GIVEN THE CURRENT POSITION OF THE
HIGH AND BOMBING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON THE MODELS...ODDS FAVOR
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. THERE COULD BE SOME ISSUES
FOR A TIME ALONG THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST ESPECIALLY
THE CAPE/ISLANDS. THAT IS THE SCENARIO THAT THE CURRENT MODELS ARE
ADVERTISING...BUT A 50 OR SO MILE SHIFT IN THE TRACK NORTHWEST
WILL MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR...MIXING ISSUES
COULD AFFECT A LARGER PART OF THE COASTAL PLAIN SO SOMETHING WILL
HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY GIVEN THAT WERE STILL 72+ HOURS OUT.

THE OTHER ISSUE IS HOW FAR INLAND DOES THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
EXTEND. THE CURRENT MODELS INDICATE THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. GIVEN THE WELL
DEFINED MID LEVEL CENTERS AND LIKELY STRONG DEFORMATION ZONE WE
MAY SEE HEAVY SNOW AFFECT EVEN THE DISTANT INTERIOR. HOWEVER...ITS
POSSIBLE THAT THE MODEL TRACK COULD SHIFT EAST WHICH WOULD LIMIT
THE COVERAGE OF HEAVY SNOW THAT FAR WEST.

TO SUM UP...EVERYONE IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD BE PREPARED
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A VERY SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. WHILE ITS TOO EARLY TO TRY TO PIN DOWN SPECIFIC
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND THEIR LOCATIONS...THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
A FOOT OR MORE OF SNOW IN SOME LOCATIONS.

[cycloneye]

What Joe Bastardi has to say about Nemo.

Joe Bastardi‏@BigJoeBastardi

NYC battle zone as rain/snow line over city for 5 hours would mean 10 inch difference in total Ensemble wetter/colder

[Ntxw]

I think even in NYC a foot is not impossible. The comma backlash is something to behold and will cool the atmosphere very quickly. A few degrees difference would hammer the city and no doubt for a period there will likely be whiteout conditions.

[cycloneye]

I think even in NYC a foot is not impossible. The comma backlash is something to behold and will cool the atmosphere very quickly. A few degrees difference would hammer the city and no doubt for a period there will likely be whiteout conditions.

Ryan Maue and you think alike:

Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

Using a 10:1 ratio (do math if you wish) -- NYC, New England absolutely buried thru 60-hrs.

[Dave]

Recon flight up....

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1240 PM EST TUE 05 FEBRUARY 2013
SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)

VALID 06/1100Z TO 07/1100Z FEBRUARY 2013

WSPOD NUMBER.....12-067

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 71--
A. A66/ DROP 7 (24.9N 93.9W)/ 07/0000Z
B. AFXXX 06WSA TRACK66
C. 06/2030Z
D. 10 DROPS ON TRACK AS PUBLISHED
E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 07/0230Z

AF 305's in the air now

[cycloneye]

Recon flight up....

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1240 PM EST TUE 05 FEBRUARY 2013
SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)

VALID 06/1100Z TO 07/1100Z FEBRUARY 2013

WSPOD NUMBER.....12-067

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 71--
A. A66/ DROP 7 (24.9N 93.9W)/ 07/0000Z
B. AFXXX 06WSA TRACK66
C. 06/2030Z
D. 10 DROPS ON TRACK AS PUBLISHED
E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 07/0230Z

AF 305's in the air now

This is a link to the mission but is password protected.

http://www.ofcm.gov/nwsop/2012/nwsop.htm