Ohio Valley, Great Plains, All Other Areas...

[Dave]

Starting this for all us black sheep up here in the frozen tundra of the Ohio Valley & areas in and close to us. Anyone may post to this thread just keep it on topic as much as possible.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
849 AM EST FRI FEB 1 2013

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>097-OHZ042-045-046-051>056-
060>065-070>074-077>080-011700-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-DARKE-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-
MADISON-FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-
PICKAWAY-FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-
CLERMONT-BROWN-HIGHLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...RICHMOND...CONNERSVILLE...LIBERTY...
BROOKVILLE...VERSAILLES...LAWRENCEBURG...RISING SUN...VEVAY...
CARROLLTON...WARSAW...BURLINGTON...INDEPENDENCE...ALEXANDRIA...
OWENTON...WILLIAMSTOWN...FALMOUTH...BROOKSVILLE...GREENVILLE...
MARYSVILLE...DELAWARE...PIQUA...URBANA...SPRINGFIELD...LONDON...
COLUMBUS...NEWARK...EATON...DAYTON...XENIA...
WASHINGTON COURT HOUSE...CIRCLEVILLE...LANCASTER...HAMILTON...
LEBANON...WILMINGTON...CHILLICOTHE...LOGAN...CINCINNATI...
MILFORD...GEORGETOWN...HILLSBORO
849 AM EST FRI FEB 1 2013

...SLICK SPOTS ON AREA ROADS THIS MORNING...

WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW
THIS MORNING. BLOWING OF SNOW MAY BE PARTICULARLY AN ISSUE ON
NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED ROADS.

THOSE PLANNING TO VENTURE OUT THIS MORNING SHOULD ALLOW EXTRA TIME
TO REACH THEIR DESTINATION. MOTORISTS MAY ENCOUNTER SOME SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND ICY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ON SECONDARY ROADS.

[Dave]

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHERN KENTUCKY...CENTRAL
OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO
AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WIND CHILL ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING SNOW TO THE REGION
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THOUGH THE SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
HEAVY...IT WILL OCCUR OVER A PROLONGED PERIOD OF TIME WHICH WILL
RESULT IN ACCUMULATIONS. WINTER HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED.

[Dave]

Ripley county Indiana forecast (county that I live in):

Snow likely, mainly after 5am. Increasing clouds, with a low around 11. Wind chill values as low as zero. Southwest wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

Saturday Snow. High near 30. South wind 10 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Saturday Night Snow likely, mainly after 9pm. Cloudy, with a low around 24. West wind 9 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

[Dave]

January 2013 Warm and Wet across Eastern Kentucky - NWS Jackson KY

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=jkl&storyid=92254&source=0

Damage Survey Results from Tuesday's Storms...Updated - NWS Paducah KY

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=pah&storyid=92225&source=0

Extended Outlook - NWS Indianapolis IN

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=ind&storyid=75636&source=0

NWS Wilmington OH - Winter Monitor Page

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/iln/winter_monitor.php

January Summary NWS Louisville KY

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=lmk&storyid=92261&source=0

[Dave]

[b]URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1123 AM EST FRI FEB 1 2013[/b.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/
SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ SUNDAY

ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-TAYLOR KY-
CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-
RUSSELL KY-CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...
JASPER...MARENGO...TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...
JEFFERSONVILLE...HAWESVILLE...HARDINSBURG...BRANDENBURG...
BEAVER DAM...LEITCHFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN...FORT KNOX...
MOUNT WASHINGTON...SHEPHERDSVILLE...LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...
BEDFORD...NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...
CYNTHIANA...TAYLORSVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES...
LEXINGTON...PARIS...CARLISLE...BARDSTOWN...SPRINGFIELD...
HARRODSBURG...NICHOLASVILLE...WINCHESTER...HODGENVILLE...
LEBANON...DANVILLE...LANCASTER...RICHMOND...BROWNSVILLE...
MUNFORDVILLE...GREENSBURG...CAMPBELLSVILLE...LIBERTY...STANFORD...
GLASGOW...TOMPKINSVILLE...EDMONTON...COLUMBIA...JAMESTOWN...
BURKESVILLE...ALBANY


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM EST
/MIDNIGHT CST/ SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ SUNDAY.

* TIMING: ONSET OF LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN A LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA...BY DAYBREAK OVER NORTH CENTRAL
KENTUCKY...AND INTO THE REST OF THE ADVISORY AREA BY LATE
MORNING.

* MAIN IMPACT: SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES
ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS TO AROUND AN INCH ALONG A LINE FROM JASPER
INDIANA TO GLASGOW AND TOMPKINSVILLE IN KENTUCKY. THIS SNOW WILL
MAKE FOR DANGEROUS ROAD CONDITIONS...WITH UNTREATED ROAD
SURFACES QUICKLY BECOMING SLICK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW
WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

[Dave]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
307 PM EST FRI FEB 1 2013

WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-
DARKE-SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-
MADISON-FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-
PICKAWAY-FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-
CLERMONT-BROWN-HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...RICHMOND...CONNERSVILLE...LIBERTY...
BROOKVILLE...VERSAILLES...LAWRENCEBURG...RISING SUN...VEVAY...
CARROLLTON...WARSAW...BURLINGTON...INDEPENDENCE...ALEXANDRIA...
OWENTON...WILLIAMSTOWN...FALMOUTH...BROOKSVILLE...MOUNT OLIVET...
MAYSVILLE...VANCEBURG...KENTON...CELINA...WAPAKONETA...
GREENVILLE...SIDNEY...BELLEFONTAINE...MARYSVILLE...DELAWARE...
PIQUA...URBANA...SPRINGFIELD...LONDON...COLUMBUS...NEWARK...
EATON...DAYTON...XENIA...WASHINGTON COURT HOUSE...CIRCLEVILLE...
LANCASTER...HAMILTON...LEBANON...WILMINGTON...CHILLICOTHE...
LOGAN...CINCINNATI...MILFORD...GEORGETOWN...HILLSBORO...
WEST UNION...PIKETON...PORTSMOUTH
307 PM EST FRI FEB 1 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM
EST SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM SATURDAY
TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO EASTERN INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO
BEFORE DAYBREAK SATURDAY AND CONTINUE ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION DURING THE MORNING. STEADY SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY WITH MUCH OF THE ACCUMULATION OCCURRING DURING THAT TIME.
SNOW WILL BECOME MORE OFF AND ON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1 INCH.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES ARE EXPECTED DUE TO REDUCED
VISIBILITIES AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS
OF SNOW WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION
WHILE DRIVING.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN
ALSO BE FOUND AT http://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ILN.

&&

[Dave]

Winter Weather Monitor - NWS JACKSON KY

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/jkl/?n=winter_overview

[tolakram]

2 to 4 eh? I'll believe it when I see it.

How about those snow squalls last night. Kids had the day off school, northern ky shut down. Very cold, and slick out.

[Dave]

2 to 4 eh? I'll believe it when I see it.

How about those snow squalls last night. Kids had the day off school, northern ky shut down. Very cold, and slick out.

The non storm last night? A dusting I think it was called. Looked like a blizzard over here at times. Schools here went on a 2 hr delay.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Glad to see someone else is getting our weather.

I don't feel so lonely any more.

[Stephanie]

Glad to see someone else is getting our weather.

I don't feel so lonely any more.

LOVE your avatar!

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Glad to see someone else is getting our weather.

I don't feel so lonely any more.

LOVE your avatar!

Thank you! I figured he represented our (Saskatchewanians) feelings towards the cold of Wulf-monath well.

AND they do LOVE SHEEP!!!!

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

hmmmmm I have a facebook friend down in Lynchburg, Ohio (pop 1500 and she has 6 kids and is *always* posting). Just noticed she hasn't yesterday or today, which is really strange because she'd have some words to say if all her brood were kept home from school).

anyone know what the weather is like there?

[Dave]

And another cloudy day in SE Indiana with more snow forecast for later today. This isn't huge accumulation type snows instead around an inch or two then they move on. The Alberta clippers are running through almost daily now. From nws Wilmington OH...

LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY
MORNING TO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION BY MONDAY EVENING. THE LOW
WILL THEN MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY TUESDAY MORNING.
CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE THAT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL FALL AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS POSSIBLE. THE STRENGTH AND THE
EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW WILL BE CRITICAL TO THE AMOUNT OF SNOW THAT
FALLS AND HOW MUCH RAIN MIXES IN. CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER
FORECASTS FOR UPDATES.

============

Yippee....

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

I'm betting the Texans are drooling over your post Dave!

Enjoy your weather!

(reworded the above....earlier wordings intent was the same but......)

[brunota2003]

Well, guess I fall under "Ohio Valley Wx" too Here's some snowflake pictures I took the other evening:

http://www.facebook.com/media/set/?set= ... 958505b891

[Jagno]

Does anyone have access to an extended forecast outlook for the Cleveland/Independence Ohio area? I will be flying in on the 24th and will be there through the 28th. I'm trying to prepare myself for the extreme weather differences. I see today that they are in the 20's and we are already in the mid 70's. Our idea of a winter coat is what you refer to as a lined windbreaker, so as you can see I'm in for a world of change. We can drive in a foot of water but our entire infrastructure shuts down during a dusting of snow every 3-5 years so I think I'll opt for a cab rather than renting a car and learning this new driving skill. LOL

[tolakram]

Buy a winter coat.

Odds are at least part of your visit will be very cold with high temps near 30 - 35. A cold spell means 20's, a warm spell would be in the 40's. I looked around for extended forecasts but nothing accurate that far out.

[Dave]

I'm melting....I'm melting...!! Finally!!!

[RL3AO]

There isn't a great plains thread, so I'll hijack this one if you guys not mind.

Looks like a big one setting up for Sunday/Monday. Nebraska to Minnesota/Wisconsin could get big storm. However, the main reason I'm posting is to share what may be the most technical AFD I've ever seen, at least from the Twin Cities office.

FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS ON TRACK FOR LATER THIS WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXIMA CURRENTLY LOCATED IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND AFFECT THE UPPER MIDWEST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THIS SYSTEM WILL BE DIAGNOSED FROM A POTENTIAL VORTICITY PERSPECTIVE TO TRY TO GAIN SOME INSIGHT ON HOW THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE. AN EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS VIA THE GFS90 06.00 CROSS SECTION SHOWING ISENTROPES...POTENTIAL VORTICITY...AND WINDSPEED ORIENTED ALONG THE 130W MERIDIAN FROM 60N TO 20S IDENTIFIED 2 DISTINCT JETS AS SEEN BY THE TROPOPAUSE UNDULATIONS AT ROUGHLY 30N AND 55.. THE NORTHERN JET WAS ORIENTED ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER. THIS JET WAS LOCATED ATOP THE MOST WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT...WHILE THE SOUTHERNMOST JET WAS DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY THE UPPER LEVEL FRONT LOCATED WITHIN THE H500 TO H150 LAYER.

AS TIME PROGRESSES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL BECOME DETACHED FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM AS IT CRAWLS DOWN THE WEST COAST. UNDER NORMAL CIRCUMSTANCES THIS IS WHERE OLD PACIFIC STORMS GO TO DIE AS THE LATENT HEAT RELEASE AT MID LEVELS GRADUALLY ERODES THE PV...ALONG WITH THE DECREASED CORIOLIS FORCE AT LOWER LATITUDES. HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT BE THE CASE WITH THIS STORM. BY TRANSLATING THE CROSS SECTION EASTWARD TO THE 120W MERIDIAN...ONE IS ABLE TO CAPTURE THE WEAKENING PV ANOMALY AS IT SLIDES SOUTHWARD OVER CALIFORNIA. IT IS HERE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MERGES WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET...AS SEEN BY THE COUPLED JET IN THE CROSS SECTION.

ONCE THIS OCCURS...THE CYCLONIC SHEAR ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL INTERACT WITH THE OCCLUDED STORM CAUSING IT TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE 4-CORNERS REGION ON SATURDAY AND HEADS TOWARDS THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF 06.00 ARE IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW...AND SHOW THE UPPER WAVE TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT APPROACHES THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE GFS HAS A MORE ROBUST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT AND THEREFORE DEEPENS THE LOW MORE QUICKLY THAN THE ECMWF.

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