2/5-6/2010 Snowstorm Estimates

[donsutherland1]

A great Mid-Atlantic snowstorm is now imminent. Such a storm is consistent with the long-advertised idea of strong blocking (the latest AO reading was -3.378) and an active subtropical jet for February. More importantly, the Washington, D.C. to Baltimore area has been consistently modeled as having the highest amounts of snow. A 30” snowfall could occur in that vicinity. At the height of the storm, some thunder is possible in that region.

By the time the last snowflakes stop falling late Saturday or possibly early Sunday, Winter 2009-10 should be among the 5 snowiest winters on record in both Baltimore and Washington, D.C. Moreover, monthly snowfall in Washington, D.C. should be among the 5 highest figures for February. In Baltimore, monthly snowfall could be near or among the 5 highest figures for February.

Baltimore:
February snowfall through 2/4: 4.9”
Seasonal snowfall through 2/4: 35.6”



Washington, D.C. (DCA):
February snowfall through 2/4: 3.3”
Seasonal snowfall through 2/4: 27.3”



It should be noted that even as the 2/5 0z NAM came in notably drier from Philadelphia north and eastward, I have only trimmed amounts in those areas. SREF guidance and the GFS's continuity suggest that the NAM might be overdoing the magnitude of the gradient.

At this point in time, my estimates for the February 5-6, 2010 Snowstorm:

Allentown: 4”-8”
Baltimore: 16”-24”
Hagerstown: 12”-24”
Harrisburg: 6”-12”
New York City: 3”-6”
Newark: 4”-8”
Philadelphia: 10”-15”
Richmond: 4”-8”
Washington, D.C.:
…DCA: 16”-24”
…IAD: 16”-24”


Knickerbocker Snowstorm (NOAA Photo Library)

From the news caption on the January 29, 1922 edition of The Washington Post:

Washington center of driving blizzard that sweeps Virginia, Maryland, and Delaware—Snowfall exceeds all records…Capital paralyzed under deep blanket of white.

Streetcars and automobiles jammed in snowbound streets—population tied up in homes—Armament conference meetings halted—Congress activities practically suspended…

Disclaimer:

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[srainhoutx]

Very impressive storm Don. Look forward to seeing some great photos.

[vbhoutex]

What I also find interesting is the time of some of the earlier storms listed. A few of those "years are also when we have had major winter weather in the Southland. Similar patterns?
I would love to be in an area when it receives that kind of snowfall, but definitely would not want to deal with the aftermath!! For us snow starved Southerners I imagine that would be all the snow we would ever want to see after dealing with something like that. There is a reason we stay down here and dream about it, but don't move to where we can experience it.

[donsutherland1]

A potentially once-in-250-year snowstorm for the Mid-Atlantic region is now getting underway. Snowfall amounts across a large area running from the Shenandoah out to southern New Jersey will likely exceed 20". Amounts in and around the Washington-Baltimore Corridor, including adjacent counties in Virginia and Maryland could reach or exceed 30" in places.

By the time the storm is finished, if some of the higher qpf totals verify, it has some chance to rival the Washington-Jefferson snowstorm of 1772 in magnitude. My final estimates are somewhat lower. Blizzard conditions are likely from the northern Delmarva into southern New Jersey.

FWIW, here are George Washington's journal entries for the aforementioned storm:

January 26--Raw, cold, and cloudy with the wind tho not much of it Northerly.

January 27--A snow which began in the night and was about 5 or 6 inches deep this morning kept constantly at it the whole day with the wind hard and cold from the northward.

January 28--The same snow continued all last night and all this day with equal violence the wind being very cold and hard from the Northward drifting snow into banks.

January 29--Fine pleasant morning without any wind--but before 11 o'clock it coulded up & threatened snow all the remaining part of the day--being full three feet deep everywhere already.


Final estimates for the February 5-7, 2010 Snowstorm:

Allentown: 4”-8”
Baltimore: 20”-30”
Hagerstown: 18”-27”
Harrisburg: 8”-16”
New York City: 3”-6”
Newark: 4”-8”
Philadelphia: 10”-15”
Richmond: 4”-8”
Salisbury: 8"-16"
Washington, D.C.:
…DCA: 18”-27”
…IAD: 20”-30”



Disclaimer:

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.[

[ohiostorm]

Already up to 4" here near the Pittsburgh airport.

[Stephanie]

I love your history lessons as well don.

You're right David. It's beautiful and amazing to observe a powerful winter storm but the aftermath is not something you want to deal with all the time. We're getting whalloped TWICE this year. My back is feeling the shoveling I'll be doing on Sunday, right now!

[Pburgh]

I just measured 21" of snow in my back yard. My pup had to go potty on the porch. State of emergency has been issued.

[srainhoutx]

Great call Don. We can't wait to see all the pictures!

[Stephanie]

I just measured 21" of snow in my back yard. My pup had to go potty on the porch. State of emergency has been issued.

You'd think that the State of NJ would issue one as well but NOOOOO....

Marty's son is scheduled to work at 2:00 pm at a retail store in the mall. No word as to whether they are closed or not yet. WTH???

[Stephanie]

Okay, apparently a State of Emergency has been called in NJ and the mall has been closed. I can't imagine what the heck would take so long for NJ to call one PARTICULARLY when part of our state is in a blizzard warning.

[vbhoutex]

I just measured 21" of snow in my back yard. My pup had to go potty on the porch. State of emergency has been issued.

Do you have plenty of Chardonnay or do we need to make an emergency delivery?

I am not believing all these totals I am seeing!!! This is one HUGE RECORD BREAKING STORM!!!

Be safe!!!

[Pburgh]

Oh yes, I'm stocked. I think the Bailey's and cocoa are more in order today. Cars aren't allowed on the streets so I would be in big trouble. LOL

Stay safe Stephanie.

[ohiostorm]

We had at least 20" here in Hopewell Township. PIT airport reported 19.5" at 730a this morning. We are waiting for the bar to plow their parking lot and open up so we can walk down and have a couple drinks.

[vbhoutex]

We had at least 20" here in Hopewell Township. PIT airport reported 19.5" at 730a this morning. We are waiting for the bar to plow their parking lot and open up so we can walk down and have a couple drinks.

You may need snowshoes if you have to leave the parking lot or a plowed road!! Don't get a WUI!(walking under the influence ) When do you think PIT will reopen?

[ohiostorm]

We had at least 20" here in Hopewell Township. PIT airport reported 19.5" at 730a this morning. We are waiting for the bar to plow their parking lot and open up so we can walk down and have a couple drinks.

You may need snowshoes if you have to leave the parking lot or a plowed road!! Don't get a WUI!(walking under the influence ) When do you think PIT will reopen?

I think the airport is back open. I haven't really heard anything. I know Southwest has cancelled everything into and out of PIT today. Most airlines have. I haven't heard any planes flying over my apartment.

[tomboudreau]

According to the Post Gazette article published on the Internet at 2:17 - the airport is both, Pittsburgh International and Allegheny County all flight operations were suspended until further notice.

Code: Select all

Shortly before noon today, all flight operations were suspended until further notice at both Pittsburgh International Airport and Allegheny County Airport.

"It's very likely we'll reopen in the morning," said JoAnn Jenny, spokeswoman for the county airport authority.



Read more: http://www.postgazette.com/pg/10037/1034109-100.stm#ixzz0emiIAZ9M


[ohiostorm]

I would assume that runways would be clear now. Sun has been out for a couple hours.

[Category 5]

20" where I am. 28.5" at PHL, second largest total of all time.

[boca]

My father in law who lives in freehold,NJ only got 6 ".I think he underestimate that since New Brunswick is only 15 miles away from Freehold got 20" according to Category 5.Its hard to believe that New York City only got flurries.

[srainhoutx]

The cutoff line was very sharp with this storm. For those that saw snow, post some pictures!