Florida Winter - Rain and above average temps!

[Burn1]

Love the heat, but bring the sunshine on!

[Burn1]

Hi temp records continue to be matched or exceeded over central and southern Florida.......The forecast this winter was for below avg temps.....Looks like September like weather will continue through the rest of the year......As long as the sun is shining!!

[Cookiely]

Its 76 degrees and my mama is cold. She wants the heater on. I'm burning up and about to lose my mind.

[Brent]

Its 76 degrees and my mama is cold. She wants the heater on. I'm burning up and about to lose my mind.

LOL, Give it a few days. Big cold snap coming this weekend.

I don't see much extended warmth after Friday for at least 10 days or so.

[Burn1]

Looks like a brief cool down next 3 to 4 days...lots of sun

After that, warm Christmas day......Continued warm through mid-Jan
with more record highs a possibility.....However keep that rain away

[jinftl]

It is important to keep in mind what is the 'driver' behind the forecast for below normal temps in florida during a typical el nino winter. It is the expectation of more cloudiness and precip keeping daytime high temps down that is the primary factor in cooler than normal el nino winters. If you look at the numbers, low temps are typically near normal during such winters.

That doesn't mean there won't be some cold snaps....what I am referring to is frequency, severity, and duration of such cold snaps. Case in point, the current 'cold snap' is hardly of noteworthy proportions and is well above record low temps for this time of year (south florida 'chilled' down to the 50's last night....the record lows for the date are in the mid 30's).

So rather than arctic airmasses causing extremes in terms of freezing temps, the cooler el nino winters are more a result of cloudiness keeping the florida sunshine from working its magic. So far, if you define the winter as december-janurary-february (which is a very fair definition given that average temps begin to climb by late february statewide and by mid-March, winter is essentially over for most of the central and south peninsula), the first 2/3 of december has been atypically-warm for an el nino year. In fact, even with the current cooldown, it will be tough to erase the warmer than normal month-to-date temperature anomalies in many places by the end of the month (esp with temps forecast to return to normal by mid-week).

Thru 12/19, monthly temp anomalies are as follows:

Jacksonville = +3.6 deg
Tallahassee = +1.9 deg
Gainesville = +3.6 deg
Daytona Beach = +5.7 deg
Orlando = +4.4 deg
Melbourne = +5.3 deg
Vero Beach = +5.9 deg
Tampa = +2.5 deg
Sarasota = +3.7 deg
Fort Myers = +4.4 deg
Naples = +5.4 deg
West Palm = +5.6 deg
Fort Lauderdale = +6.0 deg
Miami = +6.0 deg
Key West = +4.1 deg

[NDG]

I agree with you, I also have found that is very hard to get very low temps in FL at nights with a mod to strong El Nino pattern, good example is tonight, upper level SW winds bringing in clouds will keep most of the peninsula from bottoming out tomorrow morning and Tuesday morning. Very good call by the Melbourne NWS office of not putting up frost or freeze watches for their area of coverage.
As far as temps running warmer than average for last month and so far this month for central FL, it all depends where the subtropical jet sets up during an El Nino, so far most of the time it has been north us so it has kept us in the warmer more humid airmass more often than not, a very persistent ridge in the Caribbean has helped in that.

[jinftl]

Last night was a great example of what you describe...as late as dinner time yesterday, NWS Miami was going for lows between 43 and 47 in the major urban centers of South Florida. Actual low temps stayed above 50 at the official reporting stations in Miami and Fort Lauderdale....thanks to the cloud 'blanket'.

I agree with you, I also have found that is very hard to get very low temps in FL at nights with a mod to strong El Nino pattern, good example is tonight, upper level SW winds bringing in clouds will keep most of the peninsula from bottoming out tomorrow morning and Tuesday morning. Very good call by the Melbourne NWS office of not putting up frost or freeze watches for their area of coverage.
As far as temps running warmer than average for last month and so far this month for central FL, it all depends where the subtropical jet sets up during an El Nino, so far most of the time it has been north us so it has kept us in the warmer more humid airmass more often than not, a very persistent ridge in the Caribbean has helped in that.

[Burn1]

The middle/upper level pattern will become quite complex over eastern
noam/western Atlantic this weekend into early next week...as a
large/deep-layered cyclone develops just off southern New England. High
latitude blocking over the Canadian Maritimes/North Atlantic will keep this
system relatively stationary through at least Tuesday. This will
create a prolonged period of deep-layered northwest flow through the
central/eastern Continental U.S. And straight down the Florida Peninsula...leading to a
very cold/dry airmass across South Florida for several days. The devil is
in the details this period...as strong surface ridge remains well northwest of
the region over the plains states and GFS/European model (ecmwf) rotate spokes of
energy around the base of the strong cyclone to reinforce the cold
but have differences in timing...typical of such a pattern. HPC
notes that the 00z/30 operational run of the European model (ecmwf) is widely
departed from almost all 12z/29 ensemble guidance and may be
unreliable in its solutions over the eastern Continental U.S.. GFS has
continued a warming trend noted the past 2-3 days for the upcoming
weekend...though not significantly so. 1000-850mb thicknesses from
are forecast around 1340m across Glades/Hendry counties both mornings
this weekend...which suggests min temperatures may not get colder than
Tuesday mornings event across a large area/I.E. Middle 30s/but will have
to watch radiative potential closely as one or two areas could
drop briefly to around or a degree or two below freezing Sunday
morning due to potentially very low dewpoints and ideal
radiational cooling conditions. These thicknesses fall slightly to
around 1330m Monday and Tuesday mornings and it is still possible that
a few locations in Glades/Hendry could drop near or just below
freezing those mornings. Low temperatures in the 40s across the rest of
the County Warning Area except right around 50 along the southeast coast seem possible for
several mornings. Highs will be in the 60s cwa-wide. Temperature forecast
this weekend is tricky at night and somewhat uncertain as it is
difficult to predict 1 degree this way or that in these borderline
freeze events...and all interested parties are advised to pay
close attention to the forecast the next few days.

[NDG]

MLB NWS office not too concerned at this time for freezing temps in eastern central FL through at least early next week, I agree, perfect radiational cooling doesn't seem not to be taking place with the High Pressure center forecasted to stay far away from the FL Peninsula with the subtropical jet staying more active than not.
I bet that JB's video yesterday scared a lot of citrus farmers uneccessarily, calling for mid 20s lows for the Orlando area next week. Forecasted highs by MLB might be too high for early next week but I certainly don't see JB's prediction of mid 20s lows for this area next week.

AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
430 AM EST WED DEC 30 2009

SAT-TUE...INFAMOUS COMBINATION OF NEG NAO/AO AND POS PNA WILL KEEP
COLD WX PATTERN LOCKED IN FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AN EXPANSIVE N-S FETCH OF CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR STREAMING SWD FROM
HUDSON BAY DOWN INTO THE DEEP SOUTH WILL PERSIST AS LARGE SFC HIGH
FROM THE CNDN PRAIRIE INTO THE CTRL/SRN PLAINS WILL GET REINFORCED
IN MERIDIONAL H50 FLOW REGIME. WHILE THE SRN STREAM REMAINS FAST/
ACTIVE OVER FL...IT APPEARS THAT NRN STREAM TROUGHING WILL BE SO
DOMINANT IN THIS PATTERN AS TO KEEP ANY ENERGY IN THE SRN STREAM
SUPPRESSED...OTHER THAN AN IMPULSE PSBLY INCREASING CLOUDS SOME
NEXT MON/TUE. OTRW...MAIN STORY WILL BE PROTRACTED PERIOD OF COOL
TO COLD TEMPS...WITH MAXES MAINLY IN THE L-M60S...AND MINS IN THE
30S TO L40S SOUTH.

[Burn1]

probably looking at low to mid 40's for Orlando....

[Extremeweatherguy]

I think many parts of central Florida may at least be "threatened" by a freeze at some point next week. However, I do think most of the big cities (Orlando, Tampa) may be saved by upper level cloudiness preventing perfect radiational cooling. If there can manage to be a clear night though, then a freeze into the larger population centers cannot be ruled out IMO. The 12z GFS MOS is showing quite a few lows in the 36-38F range for Orlando starting Sunday and lasting into early next week (and those numbers include the impact of upper level clouds), so this is definitely going to be worth watching. If it can get that chilly with cloud cover overhead, then it could definitely get much colder if the cloud cover was for some reason absent during one or two of those nights.

[Extremeweatherguy]

It is worth noting that the National Weather Service in Melbourne is now calling for "lower 30s" in Orange County, FL next Tuesday night. This includes the city of Orlando.

From the afternoon forecast update:

Tuesday...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 50s.

Tuesday Night...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 30s.

Wednesday...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 50s.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?zoneid=FLZ045

[Extremeweatherguy]

Well, I'm no longer so sure about Tampa and Orlando avoiding a freeze next week. If tonight's 00z GFS MOS run is correct, then there will actually be several chances for frosts and freezes across central Florida this weekend into next week. The 00z MOS run is showing 34F in Orlando on Sunday morning, 29F on Monday morning, 33F on Tuesday morning and 35F on Wednesday morning.

[NDG]

IMO, GFS is trying to push the trough to far east, thus the clear skies it now forecasts for Sunday and Monday nights.
I am not buying it, especially if the winds stay up that high as much it forecasts to stay up.

[NDG]

MLB & TBW offices sound not too concerned at this time for any freezing temps except the usual north-central sheltered areas. The GFS loves forecasting freezing temps down the peninsula, but more often than not never materialize.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
430 AM EST THU DEC 31 2009

SAT-NEXT WED...COLD TEMPS/DRY AIR WILL BE THE STORY THIS WEEKEND AND
BEYOND. LARGE MID/UPR POLAR VORTEX CTRD OVER THE NERN CONUS WILL
EDGE SLOWLY ENEWD INTO THE CNDN MRTMS WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH
ROTATING RAPIDLY AROUND ITS BASE MON/MON NGT. PROTRACTED STRETCH
OF LONG FETCH NRLY FLOW FROM HUDSON BAY WELL SWD INTO THE DEEP SOUTH
WILL KEEP TEMPS...ESPECIALLY MINS...WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WK. MAXES MAINLY U50S/L60S WITH MINS MOST AREAS IN THE 30S...
WITH SOME L40S ACROSS THE XTRM SOUTH. FREEZING TEMPS LKLY FOR MANY
SHELTERED LOCALES (ESPECIALLY NORTH/CTRL) SEVERAL MORNINGS IN A ROW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
231 AM EST THU DEC 31 2009

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE
ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NW THROUGH THE PERIOD ADVECTING CANADIAN
AIR DOWN THE STATE. THIS WILL KEEP DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WITH MAINLY N/NW WINDS. EXPECT FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NATURE COAST EACH MORNING WITH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN AREAS SEEING LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40. MAY SEE
SOME PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS. HIGHS
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH...AND UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S CENTRAL AND SOUTH.

The euro which has been handling things better, has the subtropical jet right on top of FL peninsula through at least mid next week, doubt that kind of set up will bring freezing temps from Orlando/Tampa on south.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 12z GFS and GFS MOS continue to advertise freezing temperatures reaching Orlando next week. However, as NDG pointed out, if the pattern that the EURO is advertising plays out, then it may not be able to get that cold. At this point I think it is still very much a wait and see situation for central Florida. It may freeze, it may not freeze, its still a little too early to tell.

[Extremeweatherguy]

00z GFS MOS low temperatures for Orlando, FL...

Sunday - 34F
Monday - 28F
Tuesday - 29F
Wednesday - 31F

[NDG]

None of the MOS esembles bring Orlando as low as the operational MOS, you have to question it and our local NWS office is not buying it. Forecast lows for the city are in the mid 30s, low 30s in the outskirts and more interior areas. Even warmer I think if the subtropical jet brings more cloud cover.

[Extremeweatherguy]

It looks like the Melbourne NWS is starting to change its tune this afternoon. Their latest forecast update calls for 1-2 nights of temperatures flirting with freezing in and around Orlando. They have lowered their high temperatures a few degrees in the short term too. Whether or not a freeze actually happens is still up in the air, and I am not committed one way or the other just yet, but it definitely appears that the chances for a freeze or near-freeze are gradually increasing for the big population centers of central Florida.

Here is the NWS afternoon forecast update for Orlando, FL:

Tonight: Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming clear, with a low around 39. Northwest wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 55. Wind chill values as low as 33 early. North northwest wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Saturday Night: Clear, with a low around 33. North northwest wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 55. Northwest wind around 10 mph.

Sunday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 32. West northwest wind around 5 mph.

Monday: Sunny, with a high near 60. Northwest wind around 5 mph.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 36. West northwest wind around 5 mph.

Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 58. Northwest wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Tuesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 37. Northwest wind around 5 mph.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... 1.3742&e=0