2008-09 Texas Winter Weather Thread

[Ed Mahmoud]

I'd just go Southeast Texas, still warm with nostalgia for the 2004 Christmas Snow Miracle, but I also have warm memories of being in the Hurst-Euless-Bedford area (near DFW airport), for the sleet and snow with thunder Thanksgiving Leon Lett Miami Dolphins game.

Of course, it snows in Dalhart and Amarillo and on Guadalupe Peak every winter, but exceptional snow should also be a topic of conversation.



The 6Z GFS AccuWx snow cover map shows nothing for Texas the next two weeks.

Remember, this is like the last week of May before Hurricane Season, and there is no reason to panic yet.


However, unlike Saturday, when I got sunburned in Austin watching the Baylor-Texas game, this Saturday night, when we take the kids to see Mom's alma mater, The University of Cougars battle Top 25 team The Tulsa University Golden Hurricanes in a key C-USA matchup, game time 850 mb temps will be only 6ºC, according to 0Z GFS. Sounds like Autumn sweatshirt weather.

[Ed Mahmoud]

New GFS has freezing 850 mb temps at kickoff of TU Golden Hurricane at Houston Cougars!

[gboudx]

Snippet from afternoon DFW AFD.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
319 PM CST WED NOV 12 2008


GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING A SECOND STRONGER FRONT TOWARD THE END OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S AND HIGHS IN THE 40S.
WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW IT PLAYS OUT...BUT WINTER IS AROUND THE CORNER.

[Ed Mahmoud]

12Z GFS snowcover map nicks the NE corner of the Texas Panhandle, but otherwise starves Texas of snow.

However...

GFS predicts killing freeze for HOU!

Code: Select all

       SFC       850     SFC     SFC     700    3/6      500    1000
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     HR      HGT     500
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK


Code: Select all

MON 12Z 24-NOV  -1.3     4.1    1025      50      29    0.00     576     556   

[Ed Mahmoud]

-------------------------Freeze Warning----------------------------

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
429 AM CST SAT NOV 15 2008

...A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING UNTIL
9 AM SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE HILL COUNTRY AND MUCH OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS...

.A STRONG COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT HAS USHERED IN COLD...VERY DRY
AIR. THIS WILL RESULT IN A HARD FREEZE TONIGHT OVER THE HILL
COUNTRY AND A FREEZE OVER MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE FREEZE
WARNING IS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 EAST OF SAN
ANTONIO...AND HIGHWAY 90 WEST OF SAN ANTONIO.

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-152130-
/O.CON.KEWX.FZ.W.0002.081116T0300Z-081116T1500Z/
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...DEL RIO...
ROCKSPRINGS...LEAKEY...KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDERICKSBURG...
BOERNE...BLANCO...SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN...BASTROP...GIDDINGS...
BRACKETTVILLE...UVALDE...HONDO...SAN ANTONIO...NEW BRAUNFELS...
SEGUIN...LOCKHART...LA GRANGE
429 AM CST SAT NOV 15 2008

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO
9 AM CST SUNDAY...

A STRONG COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT HAS USHERED IN COLD DRY AIR THAT WILL
RESULT IN A HARD FREEZE TONIGHT OVER THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY...AND
A FREEZE OVER MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE FREEZE WARNING IS
GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 EAST OF SAN ANTONIO...AND
HIGHWAY 90 WEST OF SAN ANTONIO. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET THIS EVENING AND DIP TO BELOW
FREEZING TONIGHT.

LOW TEMPERATURES BY SUNRISE SUNDAY IN THE HILL COUNTRY WILL FALL
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 20S...WITH EVEN LOWER 20S POSSIBLE IN SOME
LOW LYING AREAS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF HE REST OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. PRECAUTIONS SHOULD
BE TAKE TO PROTECT EXPOSED PIPES...PETS AND PLANTS TODAY.

THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THAT IS NOT UNDER THE FREEZE
WARNING WILL EXPERIENCE LOWS IN THE MID 30S TONIGHT. HOWEVER THE FREEZE
WARNING COULD BE EXPANDED SOUTHWARD OVER THIS AREA AS WELL LATER
TODAY.

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR
HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

[Ed Mahmoud]

33.1ºF (0.6ºC) at DW Hooks for a morning low. Since the station doesn't sit on the ground, where it is usually colder, well, I suspect a widespread frost in Northern Harris County.

[Ed Mahmoud]

18Z GFS from 17 November 08 continues with no snow for Texas, but all of Canada, almost, is snow covered in 2 weeks, favorable for impressive post-Thanksgiving cold outbreaks.

[iorange55]

One decent snow or ice storm this winter and I'll be happy. But if we get nothing I will be depressed all summer.

[iorange55]

Gfs models are showing a big cool down after thanksgiving, if i'm looking at all the maps correct. Which I'm probably not :[

[Ed Mahmoud]

The 18 Nov 08 06Z GFS has snow in Texas generally along and north of Interstate 20 on December 1st.


Interestingly enough, per the 6Z GFS, DFW never has an actual freeze, with the snow falling with temps around 2ºC. All from my AccuWx PPV site.

[iorange55]

The 18 Nov 08 06Z GFS has snow in Texas generally along and north of Interstate 20 on December 1st.


Interestingly enough, per the 6Z GFS, DFW never has an actual freeze, with the snow falling with temps around 2ºC. All from my AccuWx PPV site.

Stop getting my hopes up :[

[Ed Mahmoud]

The 18 Nov 08 06Z GFS has snow in Texas generally along and north of Interstate 20 on December 1st.


Interestingly enough, per the 6Z GFS, DFW never has an actual freeze, with the snow falling with temps around 2ºC. All from my AccuWx PPV site.

Stop getting my hopes up :[

Look at Dallas on December 1st. 12Z run seems to agree with 6Z run on a winter weather event of small to moderate magnitude. Looks to me like GFS is predicting near 2 inches of snow, mainly during the overnight hours when the sun won't be heating the ground.

Code: Select all

2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    3/6      500    1000
TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     HR      HGT     500
(C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK

MON 00Z 01-DEC   3.8     0.0    1019      70      97    0.04     560     544   
MON 12Z 01-DEC   0.9    -2.8    1019      93      89    0.18     555     539   

[gboudx]

Look at Dallas on December 1st. 12Z run seems to agree with 6Z run on a winter weather event of small to moderate magnitude. Looks to me like GFS is predicting near 2 inches of snow, mainly during the overnight hours when the sun won't be heating the ground.

Code: Select all

2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    3/6      500    1000
TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     HR      HGT     500
(C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK

MON 00Z 01-DEC   3.8     0.0    1019      70      97    0.04     560     544   
MON 12Z 01-DEC   0.9    -2.8    1019      93      89    0.18     555     539   

[Portastorm]

Yeah, let someone else try to kick that football and being fooled by Lucy!! I'm tired of being the one every winter who befalls that fate. GFS predicting Texas snow? Bah humbug!!

[gboudx]

Yeah, let someone else try to kick that football and being fooled by Lucy!! I'm tired of being the one every winter who befalls that fate. GFS predicting Texas snow? Bah humbug!!

You are kidding no one. We all know you'll push old ladies down to be first in line to kick that ball.

[southerngale]

Yeah, let someone else try to kick that football and being fooled by Lucy!! I'm tired of being the one every winter who befalls that fate. GFS predicting Texas snow? Bah humbug!!

You are kidding no one. We all know you'll push old ladies down to be first in line to kick that ball.

LOL

He knows it's true.

And I will happily admit that I hope Lucy doesn't pull it back EVERY time this year. She's getting pretty mean.

[Portastorm]

(big sigh) ... y'all are killing me here! Is it that obvious??

OK, so maybe I have looked at a GFS run or two in the last week or so ... that doesn't mean I have laced up the ol' kicking shoes yet!

Now if you'll excuse me, I have some medium-range models to peruse. Ahem.

[iorange55]

The GFS is now not really showing the snow. I try to quit looking at these long range forecasts but I just can't help it.

[Portastorm]

Yep, nothing to get excited about in today's 0z and 12z GFS runs. No football to kick today, or for the next few days at least!

[Extremeweatherguy]

It looks like Lucy may be trying to taunt the southern plains once again...


^^December 3rd/4th^^