SE TX/SW LA Winter WX - 2011-2012

[CajunMama]

Here we go!!!

We have windchill! Quite a blustery morning here with a lake wind advisory. Winds @18 with gusts to 28 ushering in much colder air bringing the next few morning temps down to the upper 30's and highs in the lower 60's. I'm sure it feels colder than it actually is since we're used to the warmer temps.

Currently it's 57 w/18 mph winds giving us a windchill of 42. The nws page isn't giving us our windchill temp yet but i found a great page that does a lot of weather conversions.

Temperature Conversions

[CaptinCrunch]

10:45am here at work in downtown FTW and temps still in the upper 40's (48) at current time.

[jasons2k]

Sorry for the double-post - I just saw this thread --

There was frost on the rooftops in the Spring-Woodlands area this morning. It was a chilly 39 degrees in my neighborhood this morning!

[CajunMama]

Hope that cool front coming down sends some rain here. We really need it.

[Johnny]

Alright! I hope this thread reaches 200 pages before it is all said and done this winter with a few good chances of winter weather! Too bad we won't have EWG around here anymore giving us the play by play. With how much he moves, I'm sure he will be back in Texas shortly. Right EWG?

It looks like we will have a decent front with high's only in the low 60's this Saturday under cold air advection and gusty winds. My area (lake Conroe) will be flirting with feezing temps Sunday morning if the winds lay soon enough. Next week and into next weekend things look pretty interesting with the possibility of arctic air slipping down.

I nominate Ed to replace EWG for the latest model postings!! Whaddya say Ed?

[Ed Mahmoud]

Alright! I hope this thread reaches 200 pages before it is all said and done this winter with a few good chances of winter weather! Too bad we won't have EWG around here anymore giving us the play by play. With how much he moves, I'm sure he will be back in Texas shortly. Right EWG?

It looks like we will have a decent front with high's only in the low 60's this Saturday under cold air advection and gusty winds. My area (lake Conroe) will be flirting with feezing temps Sunday morning if the winds lay soon enough. Next week and into next weekend things look pretty interesting with the possibility of arctic air slipping down.

I nominate Ed to replace EWG for the latest model postings!! Whaddya say Ed?

Busy day now at work, but I hope to do my daily scan of the AccuWx PPV 6Z GFS snow cover map to see if we have any treats on the horizon that probably won't come to fruition.

[Extremeweatherguy]

You won't find much in the 6z Ed. It is one of the warmer runs of the past 24 hours.

[CajunMama]

Pretty strong cold front that will be entering here this afternoon. Sunday morning low supposed to be 34.

[CajunMama]

I actually had to turn the heater on tonight. It's right under 42 right now with the low supposed to be 35. The homeless shelter here implemented their freeze plan.

[jasons2k]

I had a low this morning of 35. With the sun out, looks like a beautiful end for the weekend.

[CajunMama]

It got down to 35 here this morning too. It's already down to 38 tonight and it sure does feel much colder. Thankfully it'll warm up during the week. I am not a cold weather person.

[southerngale]

I had a low of 34F yesterday morning and 37F this morning. Brrr! It looks like that will do it for the 30's for now... lows expected to be in the 40's the next few nights.

The cooler weather is a welcomed change.

[vbhoutex]

This is the latest from Jeff for our area. Not going to be a real nice weekend unfortunately.

Strong cold front will cross the region this evening…ending the mild sunny weather.

Front currently located in the southern panhandle moving SE around 30mph. Behind the boundary temps. have fallen into the 30’s with NW winds of 25-35mph while ahead of the front shallow Gulf moisture is returning to the area. Upstream temps. over the great plains are in the teens and 20’s…so some decent cold air is pooling behind this front.

Extrapolation of frontal movement places the boundary into the CLL area around 600pm this evening and off the upper TX coast by 1100pm to midnight. Moisture return today will be shallow and models only suggest a thin line of showers with the boundary mainly south of I-10. Of bigger notice will be the onset of strong NW winds and much colder temps.

Shallow cold air mass will be overrun by moist WSW flow above the surface Friday resulting in cloudy and cold conditions under strong cold air advection regime. Expect highs to remain in the 50’s. Isentropic pattern really gets going Saturday into Sunday resulting in cloudy and cold conditions on Saturday with a slight chance of drizzle or light rain and highs mainly in the 50’s. Warm front should cross the region on Sunday ahead of a deeper storm system slated for Monday. Gulf air mass should regain control through Monday night ahead of the next front. Moisture looks deeper and more plentiful with this system leading to a better chance of rain Sunday afternoon into Monday night. Front should clear the area early Tuesday with sunny and cool to mild weather for the middle to end of next week.

Long range models show a vigorous storm system moving into S CA toward the middle of next week with potential effects on TX the day after Thanksgiving into that weekend.

[Jagno]

Look on the bright side vbhoutex, it looks to be a decent Thanksgiving Day at least. I will have to make a running trip to our hunting camp in Beauregard parish tomorrow to cover my garden as the temps are expected to be around 30. I don't want to lose my broccoli, lettuce, mustard greens, bell peppers, tomatoes and cabbage just yet. It looks to warm up nicely after that so hopefully it can survive one cold night.

[vbhoutex]

It does look like Thanksgiving will be nice, especially compared to the weekend forecast.

[CajunMama]

Ok. it's darn cold! It's 42 with a windchill of 34.

Bre and i are headed to troy, al tomorrow to watch our cajuns play. It's going to be a cccccccold game.

[vbhoutex]

Latest from Jeff-So much for a nice Thanksgiving week weatherwise.

Strong cold front has cleared the coast with good cold air advection in place. Upstream temps. continue to fall with CLL down to 42 and Waco to 38. Even with clear to partly cloudy skies today temps. will not warm much under CAA regime. Greater amounts of cloud cover over the SW areas around Matagorda Bay may keep temps. in the lower 50’s today while elsewhere temps. should top out in the mid 50’s with gusty NNE winds.



Cold night on tap as center of the high moves overhead. While conditions appear very favorable for near freezing temps. in many areas…models suggest onset of S TX upglide after 06Z (midnight) as coastal trough develops over the NW Gulf of Mexico. Given low dewpoints in place and clear skies for a large part of the night freezing temps. will be possible across the NE counties where clouds will onset later. Still may see mid 30’s metro Houston and upper 30’s even SW counties before onset of thicker cloud cover and advection of warmer Gulf flow after 300am.



Clouds quickly develop and fill northward Saturday as isentropic pattern is established by 35-40kt southerly flow overrunning the retreating cold dome at the surface. Expect light rain and drizzle to develop out of S TX and spread NE across the coastal bend to Matagorda Bay during the day as a surface warm front advances toward the coast. Will see gradual top down warming as the cold dome becomes shallower with time. Good lift comes to bear across the region Saturday night through Sunday as southern stream vort max ejects NE across the state along with returning warm front. Will side with the higher rain chance starting late Saturday and will likely need at least 60% on Sunday given lift and returning moisture. Warm front should move across the region by late Sunday with humid Gulf air mass returning ahead of a weak front on Monday.



Next Week:



Cloudy and wet conditions look likely next week as active southern stream storm track develops. Weak front will stall out over the region late Monday with a slight chance of rainfall. A fairly inactive day on Tuesday as SE winds begin to bring Gulf moisture back northward. Wednesday-Friday strong storm system drops into the SW US with noisy SW upper flow over TX. Wide open Gulf of Mexico will bring in copious amounts of moisture with widespread clouds and rainfall expected through the period. Disturbances embedded with the upper flow will help spark showers and thunderstorms off and on through the period. Upper storm system ejects across the state late Friday with next strong cold front. Will blanket Wed-Fri with 40% for now…some periods will likely have much higher chances as timing of upper air disturbances becomes clear. Point being it looks warm and unsettled for the holiday period.

[southerngale]

It's 12:20 p.m. and still only 48°

[vbhoutex]

We managed a blazing 55ºF for a high to day. Already down to 51ºF on the way down to a ;ow in the upper 30's. Still early in the season for this cool weather but not earth shattering. Not looking forward to the overunning that is progged for the next day or two. I HATE wet cold weather!

[TexasSam]

might be a bit colder than expected at 5:55PM it's 49 here!!!