Texas Winter 2016-2017

[Brent]

I'm still waiting for this warmup... honestly I think I'll believe the 70 on Sunday when I see it(even though I've seen it on every GFS/Euro run for days)...

[JDawg512]

All of the forecasts I've seen have highs in the 50's or 60's here in southeast TX for the end of next week. I think that forecast is gonna bust, but they just gotta be conservative I suppose.

You never know, a SE ridge can just pop up, and give SE Texas nothing but warm, dry 70s.

If your around Houston and Beaumont then summers are quite different than other areas. Texas is of couse a ginormous state so it depending where each of us lives, we can experience very different weather. Overall this summer was not that bad when compared to most summers Texas experiences. August was a much needed respite and without rain that month, it would have been hotter than it ultimately was.

As far as what's going on now, like Porta mentioned most areas of Austin didn't get a freeze. My sensitive plants are all alive and well. Not a huge fan of freezing weather but would be nice to have a couple of moderate short freezes to kill off the mosqitos and would be good for my plum tree.

Texas summers just get ruined by the "Death Ridge." Did you know that from 1981-2010, Austin averaged less frequent rainfall days in August than Phoenix? I don't know why Central/North Texas is always under that atrocious thing during summer; I can't think of any special geography that would cause it.

Ideally, freezes shouldn't happen at all in Austin, or much of Texas, which is far south in latitude. Sustained cool nights (say 40-50F) with winter drought would kill of mosquitoes just as effectively as a freeze would.

It's the very reason that you mentioned about the lattitude that we tend to get "death ridges". When looking at the globe, the 30th parallel (along with it's southern counterpart) are where the majority of the world's deserts are located. The eastern half of Texas is lucky in that we are close to the Gulf of Mexico which is what keeps this half from looking like far west Texas. August is during the monsoon season in the desert southwest which is why Phoenix tends to see more rain days during that month than the Austin area.

As far as freezes go, while on average it's not common to see long term extreme cold being in a subtropical climate zone, we are far from being immune to it. If we were around the Tropic of Cancer then the argument could be made that freezes shouldn't occure at all (leaving aside elevation for the moment).

[A.V.]

It's the very reason that you mentioned about the lattitude that we tend to get "death ridges". When looking at the globe, the 30th parallel (along with it's southern counterpart) are where the majority of the world's deserts are located. The eastern half of Texas is lucky in that we are close to the Gulf of Mexico which is what keeps this half from looking like far west Texas. August is during the monsoon season in the desert southwest which is why Phoenix tends to see more rain days during that month than the Austin area.

Phoenix, which is actual desert, sees more frequent rain in August than Austin, which isn't desert. Thus, if ridges at 30N create deserts, then why is this "Death Ridge" so dominant over places like Dallas and Austin, which aren't deserts? Shouldn't it be over the actual deserts of the SW US?

More research should go into the "Death Ridge," it doesn't seem like a well topic with great recognition.

[JDawg512]

It's the very reason that you mentioned about the lattitude that we tend to get "death ridges". When looking at the globe, the 30th parallel (along with it's southern counterpart) are where the majority of the world's deserts are located. The eastern half of Texas is lucky in that we are close to the Gulf of Mexico which is what keeps this half from looking like far west Texas. August is during the monsoon season in the desert southwest which is why Phoenix tends to see more rain days during that month than the Austin area.

Phoenix, which is actual desert, sees more frequent rain in August than Austin, which isn't desert. Thus, if ridges at 30N create deserts, then why is this "Death Ridge" so dominant over places like Dallas and Austin, which aren't deserts? Shouldn't it be over the actual deserts of the SW US?

More research should go into the "Death Ridge," it doesn't seem like a well topic with great recognition.

Because it has to do with seasonal variabilities and different weather patterns for each region. The ridge that we get is typically associated with the Bermuda High. As a result August is one of the driest months of the year for us. The monsoons are triggered by moisture that's pulled up from the Pacific during the summer over there. It's really not that hard to grasp.

[Ntxw]

Proximity to topography (rain shadow) and predominant winds (and where they come from relative of bodies of water). Deserts occur around 30N because tropical convection with rising air that travels pole ward and starts to sink near 30 degrees latitude (Hadley Cell). This sinking motion reduces rainfall and feeds back to those ridges locally, often coupled with the first two reasons mentioned for a runaway desert effect for decades to centuries.

But this is for another discussion, back to winter please

[starsfan65]

Proximity to topography (rain shadow) and predominant winds (and where they come from relative of bodies of water). Deserts occur around 30N because tropical convection with rising air that travels pole ward and starts to sink near 30 degrees latitude (Hadley Cell). This sinking motion reduces rainfall and feeds back to those ridges locally, often coupled with the first two reasons mentioned for a runaway desert effect for decades to centuries.

But this is for another discussion, back to winter please

Do we have 2 cold fronts coming through next week?

[A.V.]

Because it has to do with seasonal variabilities and different weather patterns for each region. The ridge that we get is typically associated with the Bermuda High. As a result August is one of the driest months of the year for us. The monsoons are triggered by moisture that's pulled up from the Pacific during the summer over there. It's really not that hard to grasp.

If it is from the Bermuda High, then it is probably some cell off-shoot combined with another factor; because the Bermuda High is out in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean, and it's expansion causes the summer storms that happen along the Gulf of Mexico/Atlantic.

Proximity to topography (rain shadow) and predominant winds (and where they come from relative of bodies of water). Deserts occur around 30N because tropical convection with rising air that travels pole ward and starts to sink near 30 degrees latitude (Hadley Cell). This sinking motion reduces rainfall and feeds back to those ridges locally, often coupled with the first two reasons mentioned for a runaway desert effect for decades to centuries.

But this is for another discussion, back to winter please

Winter is perfect when night time temps are in the 45-55F range. I heard that it can snow in above freezing temp; that is much better than having ice storms, which are useless.

[JDawg512]

Proximity to topography (rain shadow) and predominant winds (and where they come from relative of bodies of water). Deserts occur around 30N because tropical convection with rising air that travels pole ward and starts to sink near 30 degrees latitude (Hadley Cell). This sinking motion reduces rainfall and feeds back to those ridges locally, often coupled with the first two reasons mentioned for a runaway desert effect for decades to centuries.

But this is for another discussion, back to winter please

Yea it's gotten off topic, sorry about that. It is a conversation for summer not winter.

On the subject of winter, as much as a lot of fellow forumers would love to see a wintery precip or snowy Christmas day, it would be bad to travel to my family's dinner that my uncle and aunt are hosting at their ranch just northwest of the town of Llano. The Hill Country would undoubtedly be hazardous for driving.

We can have a winter storm the day after

[Ntxw]

Yea it's gotten off topic, sorry about that. It is a conversation for summer not winter.

On the subject of winter, as much as a lot of fellow forumers would love to see a wintery precip or snowy Christmas day, it would be bad to travel to my family dinner that my uncle and aunt are hosting at their ranch just northwest of the town of Llano. The Hill Country would undoubtedly be hazardous for driving.

We can have a winter storm the day after

You would be watching closely then I would assume to make plans accordingly . Unfortunately it is potential travel days before and after Christmas for many.

[Ntxw]

Do we have 2 cold fronts coming through next week?

For sure there will be a front mid to late week. It should remain cold through the weekend before it might warm up until the next system kicks in Christmas week.

[starsfan65]

Do we have 2 cold fronts coming through next week?

For sure there will be a front mid to late week. It should remain cold through the weekend before it might warm up until the next system kicks in Christmas week.

This storm could be a doozy.

[Ntxw]

Winter is perfect when night time temps are in the 45-55F range. I heard that it can snow in above freezing temp; that is much better than having ice storms, which are useless.

It can snow if the above column is really cold and really deep while barely the lower few meters near the surface is above freezing. However here in Texas it is often the complete opposite during cold blasts, where the really cold air is at the surface while above it takes longer to cool.

[Brent]

0z GFS faster with the Wednesday front... comes through in the morning hours, down in the 40s by afternoon at DFW. Front seems to stall in Central TX on Thursday.

Warming up Thursday Night

lol this run is 25 degrees warmer Friday than the 18z GFS at DFW. 30 degrees at Austin.

[TheProfessor]

Winter is perfect when night time temps are in the 45-55F range. I heard that it can snow in above freezing temp; that is much better than having ice storms, which are useless.

It can snow if the above column is really cold and really deep while barely the lower few meters near the surface is above freezing. However here in Texas it is often the complete opposite during cold blasts, where the really cold air is at the surface while above it takes longer to cool.

I've seen snow here with Surface temps at 44 degrees and had a pretty epic snow/sleet squall a few days before Thanksgiving here while the Surface temps were only 37 degrees.

[Brent]

This GFS run is worlds apart from the 18z... temperatures are pushing 70 degrees even at DFW next Saturday morning now. Not much of a front Wed/Thu, most of the cold air stays in Oklahoma.

Arctic front pushes through Amarillo around 192 hours

What a contrast



Only an 80 degree swing across the state lmao

[Cerlin]

This GFS run is worlds apart from the 18z... temperatures are pushing 70 degrees even at DFW next Saturday morning now. Not much of a front Wed/Thu, most of the cold air stays in Oklahoma.

Arctic front pushes through Amarillo around 192 hours

What a contrast



Only an 80 degree swing across the state lmao

Man I really hope that run is a fluke. There's supposed to be some precipitation Thursday and I want it to be flurries not rain.

[rearview]

That negative zero in the panhandle sounds cold indeed.

[ronyan]

Yeah -0 means between -.49 and -.01 I suppose.

[Brent]

McFarland signature time!

[starsfan65]

This GFS run is worlds apart from the 18z... temperatures are pushing 70 degrees even at DFW next Saturday morning now. Not much of a front Wed/Thu, most of the cold air stays in Oklahoma.

Arctic front pushes through Amarillo around 192 hours

What a contrast



Only an 80 degree swing across the state lmao

Man I really hope that run is a fluke. There's supposed to be some precipitation Thursday and I want it to be flurries not rain.

This run is a joke.