Texas Winter 2013-2014

[dhweather]

Hey NTXW - do you think we might be seeing the start of something much bigger? The Atlantic hurricane season was rather disappointing, now the EPO has dominated all winter, if an El Nino comes, maybe we're headed back to a period like 1970-80? Low tropical activity, some harsh winters, and hopefully RAIN!

[Ntxw]

Hey NTXW - do you think we might be seeing the start of something much bigger? The Atlantic hurricane season was rather disappointing, now the EPO has dominated all winter, if an El Nino comes, maybe we're headed back to a period like 1970-80? Low tropical activity, some harsh winters, and hopefully RAIN!

Some good food for thought. I'll run stats on some of it later this weekend but I think this cold winter (aside from the -EPO) was also foreseen by the Atlantic season. Freakish dead Atlantic seasons equates to cold winters. Low ACE count is typically a hint that a harsh winter is to come, I don't know why I didn't see this last fall. 1983, 1977, 1972, 1982, 1993, 1917, 2013 are just some examples extremely low ACE and all were harsh winters. If we get an El Nino I don't think we shift to +PDO, just a blip rise of the -PDO. More likely something in the late 50s if one occurs then a bunch of neutrals in the early 60s. Maybe we get a super Nino that flips the PDO completely and we do end up with a 70s-80s comparison? Of course talking years out my guess is as good as yours . Summer will be wet as will fall. It is the spring that I'm unsure of as I've been leaning dry due to the ENSO lag since Feb.

Edit: Now that I think about, does the -EPO squash the Atlantic season? Those years all featured major -EPO. Or does the quiet Atlantic somehow signals a -EPO due to heat being in the Pacific instead?

[gpsnowman]

Our old friend Steve Mccauley mentioned a cold snap for the middle of next week on his FB page. No other details given.

[Ntxw]

Our old friend Steve Mccauley mentioned a cold snap for the middle of next week on his FB page. No other details given.

Things happen when west coast ridging mixes with a southwest low. They tend to pull eastern troughs back. MJO mojo.

[South Texas Storms]

Hey NTXW - do you think we might be seeing the start of something much bigger? The Atlantic hurricane season was rather disappointing, now the EPO has dominated all winter, if an El Nino comes, maybe we're headed back to a period like 1970-80? Low tropical activity, some harsh winters, and hopefully RAIN!

Some good food for thought. I'll run stats on some of it later this weekend but I think this cold winter (aside from the -EPO) was also foreseen by the Atlantic season. Freakish dead Atlantic seasons equates to cold winters. Low ACE count is typically a hint that a harsh winter is to come, I don't know why I didn't see this last fall. 1983, 1977, 1972, 1982, 1993, 1917, 2013 are just some examples extremely low ACE and all were harsh winters. If we get an El Nino I don't think we shift to +PDO, just a blip rise of the -PDO. More likely something in the late 50s if one occurs then a bunch of neutrals in the early 60s. Maybe we get a super Nino that flips the PDO completely and we do end up with a 70s-80s comparison? Of course talking years out my guess is as good as yours . Summer will be wet as will fall. It is the spring that I'm unsure of as I've been leaning dry due to the ENSO lag since Feb.

Edit: Now that I think about, does the -EPO squash the Atlantic season? Those years all featured major -EPO. Or does the quiet Atlantic somehow signals a -EPO due to heat being in the Pacific instead?

Ntxw, how sure are you that we will have a wet summer this year? I thought El Nino has a much bigger impact on our weather beginning in the fall and peaking in the winter.

[Ntxw]

Ntxw, how sure are you that we will have a wet summer this year? I thought El Nino has a much bigger impact on our weather beginning in the fall and peaking in the winter.

I take more into consideration when trying to look beyond a month or so than just the ENSO signal. I actually had that idea even before any signs of a Nino hit. A few analogs and neutrals gave us a below average and dry spring. They also featured slightly below normal summers as well as slightly above precipitation with our recent +PDO reading to boost. If ENSO warms up quicker only increases the confidence of even more wet.

[South Texas Storms]

Ntxw, how sure are you that we will have a wet summer this year? I thought El Nino has a much bigger impact on our weather beginning in the fall and peaking in the winter.

I take more into consideration when trying to look beyond a month or so than just the ENSO signal. I actually had that idea even before any signs of a Nino hit. A few analogs and neutrals gave us a below average and dry spring. They also featured slightly below normal summers as well as slightly above precipitation with our recent +PDO reading to boost. If ENSO warms up quicker only increases the confidence of even more wet.

So you think we have a pretty good chance of seeing slightly above normal precipitation this summer and if El Nino gets going in a few months, the above normal precipitation could possibly continue all the way through the beginning of 2015?

[Ntxw]

So you think we have a pretty good chance of seeing slightly above normal precipitation this summer and if El Nino gets going in a few months, the above normal precipitation could possibly continue all the way through the beginning of 2015?

That is my thinking at this time and I hope I'm right. Most long term guidance remains the NE Pacific warm pool and expands it down the west coast. Drought in California likely will anchor ridging in the summer west and southwest that tends to put us in NW flow. In the spring cold air still dominates so cool intrusions aren't as wet as when it happens in summer when pwats are much higher. That kind of fits into the reasoning for the what the analogs showed as a hot summer out west and cool east extending the already dominate pattern of the last 12 months. We're going to get help from the Pacific, I'm fairly certain on that for 2014 especially the second half of the year.

[Stormcenter]

It's going to to get very cold again late next week.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

So what are the models showing for next week? One of TV mets was noting another Arctic front will approach the area by mid week. Not as cold as the last one, but a significant cool down none the less and way below normal for mid March. Spring Break..... What Spring Break????

[Longhornmaniac8]

So what are the models showing for next week? One of TV mets was noting another Arctic front will approach the area by mid week. Not as cold as the last one, but a significant cool down none the less and way below normal for mid March. Spring Break..... What Spring Break????

It's where you go on break to find spring.

[wxman57]

00Z Euro has temps into the upper 30s to low 40s for lows in the D-FW area next Wed-Thu with highs around 50. That's about 15-20 deg below normal but nothing like this past front. But with the last front, the Euro was about 5-6 deg too warm, so I wouldn't rule out the possibility of a freeze in the D-FW Metroplex next week.

Spring break? We didn't have spring break when I was in college (1976-1980). We did have a single Lagniappe (means "something extra) day each spring while I was attending USL in Lafayette, but no week-long spring break there or at A&M.

[gboudx]

Spring break? We didn't have spring break when I was in college (1976-1980). We did have a single Lagniappe (means "something extra) day each spring while I was attending USL in Lafayette, but no week-long spring break there or at A&M.

That's because USL was so easy, its like you were always on a break. J/K

<----LSU Alum

[cycloneye]

Off Topic=Big news by CPC today regarding El Nino. Read the CPC March update at the ENSO Thread.

[Portastorm]

Hey gang, please do your best to move discussions on El Nino and tropical season guesses, etc., to the appropriate forums. This is a winter weather forum.

Thank you.

[Tireman4]

Spring break? We didn't have spring break when I was in college (1976-1980). We did have a single Lagniappe (means "something extra) day each spring while I was attending USL in Lafayette, but no week-long spring break there or at A&M.

So that is what is wrong with you. No wonder. No joy. No excitement. Wowzers...

[wxman57]

12Z GFS is in. Indicates a cool-down next Wed-Thu but not much rain for 7 days. Big rain event(s) indicated for the 16th-18th.

[Portastorm]

The low-res Euro 12z on the Penn State E-wall site shows a real strong blast of cold air the middle of next week also ... not sure how cold the temps are though. Will leave that for you folks who have better access to Euro data. You'd think the cheapskate owners of the PWC would breakdown one of these years and get access to it!

[Tireman4]

:uarrow:

The low-res Euro 12z on the Penn State E-wall site shows a real strong blast of cold air the middle of next week also ... not sure how cold the temps are though. Will leave that for you folks who have better access to Euro data. You'd think the cheapskate owners of the PWC would breakdown one of these years and get access to it!

Instead of spending money on Grey Goose, 18 wheelers and Champ The Charger...... Tee Hee.

[wxman57]

:uarrow:

The low-res Euro 12z on the Penn State E-wall site shows a real strong blast of cold air the middle of next week also ... not sure how cold the temps are though. Will leave that for you folks who have better access to Euro data. You'd think the cheapskate owners of the PWC would breakdown one of these years and get access to it!

12Z EC has lows in the mid to upper 30s from the Hill Country through D-FW area with highs of 50-55 next Thursday. That's too warm for me.