Upcoming cold for the South (Models, Maps, Discussions)

Extremeweatherguy · #941 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue Feb 07, 2006 6:12 pm

Tyler wrote:Corpus Christi NWS is giving Victoria upper 20's saturday morning. If Victoria is going to see upper 20's, Houston will easily see the mid 20's..

Yeah, I noticed that too. I think Houston will be 27 or below on Sat. night.

Tyler · #942 Postby **Tyler** » Tue Feb 07, 2006 6:14 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
Tyler wrote:Corpus Christi NWS is giving Victoria upper 20's saturday morning. If Victoria is going to see upper 20's, Houston will easily see the mid 20's..
Yeah, I noticed that too. I think Houston will be 27 or below on Sat. night.

12 GFS MOS temp guidance says 41 degrees as the low for Victoria Sunday morning. This means that Corpus Christi is going 13 degrees cooler than the guidance. Impressive!

Extremeweatherguy · #943 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue Feb 07, 2006 6:17 pm

Tyler wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:
Tyler wrote:Corpus Christi NWS is giving Victoria upper 20's saturday morning. If Victoria is going to see upper 20's, Houston will easily see the mid 20's..
Yeah, I noticed that too. I think Houston will be 27 or below on Sat. night.

12 GFS MOS temp guidance says 41 degrees as the low for Victoria Sunday morning. This means that Corpus Christi is going 13 degrees cooler than the guidance. Impressive!

Yeah..I live to see them take a risk like that...especially since they will be right in the end. As for the 12Z GFS MOS...I can't wait to see it tomorrow. If the 18Z trend can continue for a few runs...then many NWS offices will HAVE to change their tune.

Extremeweatherguy · #944 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue Feb 07, 2006 6:30 pm

HAS ANYONE SEEN THE 12Z NOGAPS! It is by far the coldest of any model I have seen. It has 850mb temps. down to between -10C and -15C on Sunday. It also has thickness values down to 528hpa. Another intresting thing is that it has a 1036mb High over Texas on Sunday! Could you imagine the radiational cooling. I am in no way saying the NOGAPS will be anywhere close to right...but if it were (-10 to -15C temps.) and clear, windless skies could lead to lows reaching levels not seen in February since the 1800s.

http://www.nwmangum.com/NOGAPS.phtml
^^Here is a link that shows precip. and thickness, but I can not find one that shows 850mb temps. other than on accuweather.com professional (which I have and got it from).^^

Tyler · #945 Postby **Tyler** » Tue Feb 07, 2006 6:38 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:HAS ANYONE SEEN THE 12Z NOGAPS! It is by far the coldest of any model I have seen. It has 850mb temps. down to between -10C and -15C on Sunday. It also has thickness values down to 528hpa. Another intresting thing is that it has a 1036mb High over Texas on Sunday! Could you imagine the radiational cooling. I am in no way saying the NOGAPS will be anywhere close to right...but if it were (-10 to -15C temps.) and clear, windless skies could lead to lows reaching levels not seen in February since the 1800s.

http://www.nwmangum.com/NOGAPS.phtml
^^Here is a link that shows precip. and thickness, but I can not find one that shows 850mb temps. other than on accuweather.com professional (which I have and got it from).^^

Hey Extreme, THATS extreme!! Geez... You'd have to wrap me up in a bubble to get me out in that cold. Single digits. lol. Damn.

Extremeweatherguy · #946 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue Feb 07, 2006 8:31 pm

wow...this thread has been dead for 2 hrs...

Tyler · #947 Postby **Tyler** » Tue Feb 07, 2006 8:51 pm

What the heck, my forecast for the next few days...

Tonight, clear and cool, lows in the mid to upper 30s, light freeze for rural areas and the normal cool spots.

Tommorow, sunny and a bit warmer, highs in the upper 60s.

Tommroow night, clear and cool, lows in the upper 30s

Thursday, sunny, highs in the lower 60s.

Thursday night, clear, lows in the mid 40s.

Friday, slight chance of showers, highs around 60.

Friday night, chance of a cold rain, lows around 40.

Saturday, cloudy, possible clearing late, COLD, highs in the mid to upper 40s.

Saturday night, partly cloudy early then clear, very cold, hard freeze likely for all of inland sections of SE TX, lows in the mid to upper 20s.

Sunday, mostly sunny, still cool, highs in the lower 50s.

Sunday night, clear and still cold, lows around 30.

And to start the work week, sunny and bit warmer but still cool, highs in the mid to upper 50s.

Tyler · #948 Postby **Tyler** » Tue Feb 07, 2006 9:22 pm

0z NAM rolling in, 1044+MB high in NW Canada at 42 hours. High appears slightly stronger than 18z NAM.

48 hours: High again stronger than the 18z run at this time...

#949 Postby **Portastorm** » Tue Feb 07, 2006 9:33 pm

Tyler, I won't be quite so bold as you but I believe that Austin metro will see a low temperature Sunday morning of 30 degrees. The forecasted low is currently 33 degrees. I bet we hit 27 or 28 at my house here in north Austin.

Highs Sunday won't get above 50. Current high progged is 54.

That's as far as I'm going to go!

Tyler · #950 Postby **Tyler** » Tue Feb 07, 2006 9:33 pm

54 hours 0z NAM: 1048 high in NW Canada, 3MB stronger than previous run...

#951 Postby **Portastorm** » Tue Feb 07, 2006 9:33 pm

Tyler, I won't be quite so bold as you but I believe that Austin metro will see a low temperature Sunday morning of 30 degrees. The forecasted low is currently 33 degrees. I bet we hit 27 or 28 at my house here in north Austin.

Highs Sunday won't get above 50. Current high progged is 54.

That's as far as I'm going to go!

Extremeweatherguy · #952 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue Feb 07, 2006 9:34 pm

I guess I will issue my prediction too (for the Houston area):

Tonight - Clear and cold. Lows in the middle 30s areawide, except upper 30s and lower 40s southeast of Downtown. Lows will hit freezing in normally colder spots.

Tomorrow - Mostly sunny and nice. High near 70. A few extra clouds appear late in the day.

Tomorrow night - Variable clouds with a light 10-15mph breeze. Lows in the middle 30s NW of Houston, to near 40 downtown to near 45 at the coast.

Thursday - Mostly sunny and cool. Highs in the lower 60s. Light breeze.

Thursday night - Increasing clouds. Lows in the middle to upper 40s areawide.

Friday - Mostly cloudy and breezy. 30% chance of passing showers. Cool. Highs in the lower 60s.

Friday night - Mostly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers. Breezy and chilly. Lows in the upper 30s NW of Houston, to the middle 40s SE of Houston.

Saturday - Mostly cloudy and cold with a stiff north breeze at 10-20mph (gusts to 30mph) and a 20% chance of showers. Highs in the middle 40s areawide.

Saturday night - Partly cloudy and very cold. Winds dying. 10% chance of some wintry precipitation. Lows near 24 NW of Houston, 28 Downtown, and 32 at the coast.

Sunday - Clearing and chilly. Highs in the lower 50s.

Sunday night - Clear, calm, and cold. Lows near 26 NW of Houston, 29 Downtown, and 33 at the coast.

Tyler · #953 Postby **Tyler** » Tue Feb 07, 2006 9:34 pm

Portastorm wrote:Tyler, I won't be quite so bold as you but I believe that Austin metro will see a low temperature Sunday morning of 30 degrees. The forecasted low is currently 33 degrees. I bet we hit 27 or 28 at my house here in north Austin.

Highs Sunday won't get above 50. Current high progged is 54.

That's as far as I'm going to go!

I will be bold then :wink:

I'll say 22 for you. Models continue to strengthen the high as it moves in. 0z NAM is encouraging.

Tyler · #954 Postby **Tyler** » Tue Feb 07, 2006 9:35 pm

EWG, nice forecast!

Tyler · #955 Postby **Tyler** » Tue Feb 07, 2006 9:36 pm

Portastorm wrote:
Tyler wrote:
Portastorm wrote:Tyler, I won't be quite so bold as you but I believe that Austin metro will see a low temperature Sunday morning of 30 degrees. The forecasted low is currently 33 degrees. I bet we hit 27 or 28 at my house here in north Austin.

Highs Sunday won't get above 50. Current high progged is 54.

That's as far as I'm going to go!

I will be bold then I'll say 22 for you. Models continue to strengthen the high as it moves in. 0z NAM is encouraging.

Whoa Nellie?! 22 .... aye carumba!

If the Euro verifies, you'll be right.

You mean if the Euro, Canadian, Nogaps, Nam, and JMA verifies, then I'll be right. :wink:

#956 Postby **Portastorm** » Tue Feb 07, 2006 9:37 pm

Tyler wrote:
Portastorm wrote:
Tyler wrote:
Portastorm wrote:Tyler, I won't be quite so bold as you but I believe that Austin metro will see a low temperature Sunday morning of 30 degrees. The forecasted low is currently 33 degrees. I bet we hit 27 or 28 at my house here in north Austin.

Highs Sunday won't get above 50. Current high progged is 54.

That's as far as I'm going to go!

I will be bold then I'll say 22 for you. Models continue to strengthen the high as it moves in. 0z NAM is encouraging.

Whoa Nellie?! 22 .... aye carumba!

If the Euro verifies, you'll be right.

You mean if the Euro, Canadian, Nogaps, Nam, and JMA verifies, then I'll be right.

Yeah, what he said.

I'm anxious to see the 0z run of the GFS and see if its wised up or not.

Extremeweatherguy · #957 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue Feb 07, 2006 9:37 pm

That's weird. Tyler quoted portastorm before portastorm even wrote anything. That's a first... :lol:

Tyler · #958 Postby **Tyler** » Tue Feb 07, 2006 9:37 pm

1049 MB high in NW Canada, 66 hours 0z NAM. GFS, get ready to bust like you've never busted before...

We are on the verge of 1050 here folks...

Tyler · #959 Postby **Tyler** » Tue Feb 07, 2006 9:38 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:That's weird. Tyler quoted portastorm before portastorm even wrote anything. That's a first...

#960 Postby **Portastorm** » Tue Feb 07, 2006 9:39 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:That's weird. Tyler quoted portastorm before portastorm even wrote anything. That's a first...

My PC was acting up and I thought I double posted ... so I deleted it. Yeah, weird science over here right now.

Speaking of weird science ... the big question is what will the GFS do with its 0z run tonight?

Upcoming cold for the South (Models, Maps, Discussions)

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