Texas Winter 2019-2020

[TheProfessor]

If this negative PNA pattern doesn't go away by April then the severe weather season for Tornado and Dixie Alley could be a very dangerous one.

[TheProfessor]

Big winter storm for Texas on the 12z GFS

[lsuhurricane]

12Z GFS back to winter armageddon for all of TX late next week.

[TheProfessor]

3-5 inches of snow west of DFW using Kuchera ratios. Snow is still falling at hour 240 over DFW on Pivotal(it doesn't go beyond 240 on that sight.) Freezing rain in Southeast Texas, but still north of most of the Houston area. Sleet in between.

[wxman22]

Crossing fingers lol

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Big winter storm for Texas on the 12z GFS

That makes 6 of the last 7 runs....

[wxman57]

I'm rushing north to the Canadian border to reinforce my wall. Wish me luck!

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I'm rushing north to the Canadian border to reinforce my wall. Wish me luck!

Here's to you slipping on the ice before you get there!

[weatherdude1108]

https://i.ibb.co/wRcYLjx/gfs-mslp-pcpn-frzn-scus-40.png

https://i.ibb.co/bF40xLV/gfs-mslp-pcpn-frzn-scus-41.png

Crossing fingers lol

We're due for another freezing drizzle day in Austin.

[aggiecutter]

https://i.ibb.co/wRcYLjx/gfs-mslp-pcpn-frzn-scus-40.png

https://i.ibb.co/bF40xLV/gfs-mslp-pcpn-frzn-scus-41.png

Crossing fingers lol

We're do for another freezing drizzle day in Austin.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

https://i.ibb.co/wRcYLjx/gfs-mslp-pcpn-frzn-scus-40.png

https://i.ibb.co/bF40xLV/gfs-mslp-pcpn-frzn-scus-41.png

Crossing fingers lol

We're do for another freezing drizzle day in Austin.

I'll be in San Antonio from the 15th thru 17th for work, so that could be an interesting drive home to Montgomery County, if it were to materialize.

[orangeblood]

Canadian beginning to come around as well! Love the setup starting to show up in the 8-10

[Cerlin]

Love love LOVE seeing good things on the model. It’ll likey be dropped in the next couple of days—as the GFS tends to do—but if it stays or reappears a few days out, it’s very promising for TX snow.

[South Texas Storms]

Canadian beginning to come around as well! Love the setup starting to show up in the 8-10

Yep, confidence is increasing that we will see a strong cold front push through around the middle part of this month. GFS has been quite consistent, and another models are trending in its direction. Frozen precipitation cannot be ruled out.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Canadian beginning to come around as well! Love the setup starting to show up in the 8-10

Yep, confidence is increasing that we will see a strong cold front push through around the middle part of this month. GFS has been quite consistent, and another models are trending in its direction. Frozen precipitation cannot be ruled out.

Please take a video of you and your cold loving coworkers, dancing on wxman57's desk. Maybe go for a bike ride in the snow/ice (if it happens)....

[Brent]

Maybe I am really going to bring some of this snow back with me

[TheProfessor]

The 12z GFS would certainly make for an interesting event. There are a lot of dynamical process that would occur in that setup. You'd see some evaporative cooling in combination with latent heat absorption and release under heavier precipitation. If you could limit Warm Air Advection with this event it really does have a lot of potential. WAA will really be key because it could make or break this event(if it happened as currently predicted.)

[bubba hotep]

For DFW, area avg soundings show deep cold in place to start out but the warm nose is too close for comfort. Strong jet dynamics look to be one of the primary drivers of this potential event but it's a long was out to start nit picking. It's not an unreasonable setup given the overall pattern but I'll hold off any excitement until we can at least get inside of D7.

[MississippiWx]

I'm rushing north to the Canadian border to reinforce my wall. Wish me luck!

Hope you lock yourself on the Northern side of the wall so you can feel the frigidness of your heart!

[TheProfessor]

For DFW, area avg soundings show deep cold in place to start out but the warm nose is too close for comfort. Strong jet dynamics look to be one of the primary drivers of this potential event but it's a long was out to start nit picking. It's not an unreasonable setup given the overall pattern but I'll hold off any excitement until we can at least get inside of D7.

In Ohio I didn't get excited for a storm until within 48 hours out. I can't tell you how many busts we had within 72 hours(or drastic model changes.). We even had one within 48 hours before. In Texas I wouldn't get excited until I see snow on the radar about to fall over my location lol. I love the thrill of model watching and looking at potential dynamics. But yeah, when it comes to seeing snow, I keep my expectations reserved. Although usually busts in Ohio were due to last minute changes in storm track and not really a pattern change. In the 5-7 day range you can usually lock in a pattern that supports snow somewhere, you just don't know where.