Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[jasons2k]

BRRR--latest GFS...

How cold, when, and is it for the Houston area? It may be wise to wait before I start my garden.
Thanks.

It shows a low of 33 here on the 18th. We shall see - that's a long way out from here. A few runs had predicted a hard freeze this current week and that didn't pan-out, so I am optimistic that we may be done with our freezes and spring is finally here.

Everyone has an opinion on this, but here is how I generally define spring:

Spring for your location: date of last freeze; the date the growing season begins. This is the most specific criteria and changes every year depending on your location. Note: this is how spring was defined before there was lunar calendar.

Meteorological spring or spring in general: March, April, & May. This is the meteorological spring and probably the best definition when speaking in general terms (i.e., the US transitions into spring, etc.), or when referring to spring without citing a specific location and year.

Astronomical "Spring" or general public use: Spring begins on ~March 21st, the date of the vernal equinox. I put spring in quotes because I feel this is completely arbitrary and a very poor method to define spring. It has little to do with one's location, climate, or growing season - the whole purpose for "defining" Spring on the first place. I realize this is what spring means to probably 99.9% of the population but, in my opinion, it just doesn't make any sense to use the equinox as the marker for a seasonal change, when:
a) meterologically, most of the US is well into spring as defined by warmer weather, increased insolation, and a pattern change and
b) more specifically, a good chunk of the southern US has recorded its last freeze while up north, many places still have a long way to go.

Just my $.02, but the authors on Wikipedia share many of the same sentiments: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spring_(season)#Definition

[Ntxw]

Any other year, I would agree however this year time and time again has proven we should be on our heels. Though I do doubt hard freezes this time of year, based on what has happened it wouldn't be wise to assume we are done especially when planting can be so delicate early.

One thing is clear, the transition is happening warmer air is making the move just winter hasn't given up yet. Instead of seeing two weeks of cold and a few days of warmth things are turning to the opposite but the cold is still there to an extent. I would stick to the precaution side and not plant anything susceptible to cold temperatures to perhaps later in the month.

[jasons2k]

Any other year, I would agree however this year time and time again has proven we should be on our heels. Though I do doubt hard freezes this time of year, based on what has happened it wouldn't be wise to assume we are done especially when planting can be so delicate early.

Oh, I agree with you there. I normally plant/trim/etc. on March 1st but I am waiting this year before doing that (part of the reason is my bathroom remodel).

But I am optimistic we are finished with our freezes down here - by "we" I mean the Houston-Galveston area, not DFW. I think there's a good chance the Metroplex has another freeze or two left this season.

[Portastorm]

OK, I thought I was done with you guys!!

I just saw a 12z GFS meteogram that showed snow for Austin on March 18th. I can't believe it.

[Ntxw]

OK, I thought I was done with you guys!!

I just saw a 12z GFS meteogram that showed snow for Austin on March 18th. I can't believe it.

I highly doubt that will happen Portastorm lala land. Though the pattern does allow for cold air to penetrate in the middle part of March! Models have been hinting at it.

[DentonGal]

OK, I thought I was done with you guys!!

I just saw a 12z GFS meteogram that showed snow for Austin on March 18th. I can't believe it.

Aw, Portastorm, you know you love us! After a wild and crazy winter ride, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a little Spring snow. Doesn't mean it will happen, but it certainly wouldn't surprise me.

[srainhoutx]

OK, I thought I was done with you guys!!

I just saw a 12z GFS meteogram that showed snow for Austin on March 18th. I can't believe it.

Aw, Portastorm, you know you love us! After a wild and crazy winter ride, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a little Spring snow. Doesn't mean it will happen, but it certainly wouldn't surprise me.

Don't get Portastorm started. Lucy has spoken!

[DentonGal]

ROTFL!

[CaptinCrunch]

I don't write winter off till April 1st, and even then we can still get a freeze that late here in NTX. With El Nino still very active a cooler/wetter than avg spring is on tap for NTX. Summer will stay on the cooler side of 100 degrees till mid to late July, but over all our NTX summer wont be extreme.

[wxman57]

How cold, when, and is it for the Houston area? It may be wise to wait before I start my garden.
Thanks.

Depends on what you're planing and how big your garden is. Some plants require cool weather. Tomatoes require a temperature below 70 at night to set fruit. That's why you need to get them in the ground ASAP, as it takes almost 3 months to go from seed to fruit. Wait any longer and nighttime lows will be above 70 and you won't get any tomatoes. At this late date, you'd better be planing some tall seedlings (tomatoes). If you're growing leafy vegetables, then it's almost past time to plant.

Even if we do get one more brief, light freeze in Houston, you can easily cover your sensitive plants for that one night. Wait any longer and they'll be withering from the heat before you harvest anything.

[WhiteShirt]

How cold, when, and is it for the Houston area? It may be wise to wait before I start my garden.
Thanks.

Depends on what you're planing and how big your garden is. Some plants require cool weather. Tomatoes require a temperature below 70 at night to set fruit. That's why you need to get them in the ground ASAP, as it takes almost 3 months to go from seed to fruit. Wait any longer and nighttime lows will be above 70 and you won't get any tomatoes. At this late date, you'd better be planing some tall seedlings (tomatoes). If you're growing leafy vegetables, then it's almost past time to plant.

Even if we do get one more brief, light freeze in Houston, you can easily cover your sensitive plants for that one night. Wait any longer and they'll be withering from the heat before you harvest anything.

Thanks, Wxman. I'll get them in the ground this weekend.

[jasons2k]

Time to queue-up the cricket track?

[southerngale]

Here you go.


I'm still cold, though. Rain and 50s = it sure doesn't FEEL like spring break. Some area schools have spring break this week.

[Tejas89]

From NWS climate summaries for DFW:

* December was 4 degrees colder than normal, with 2.8" more snow than usual.
* January was .2 degrees warmer than normal, with .8" less snow than usual.
* February was 7.7 degrees colder than normal, with 11.4" more snow than usual.



We had 43 days with below-freezing temps. That's a whopping 48% of the days!! This compares to the normal of around 30. Still interested in knowing where this winter ranks in terms of temps. If anyone has a source for seasonal average temps by year, let me know. Can't find it at NOAA.

[Ntxw]

I don't think this winter will rank top 5 for DFW maybe top 10. The cold was persistent average wise but the deep freeze compared to the periods such as the 80s were much colder where you had highs in the teens and lows in single digits even below zero. Compared to the past decade or two, this winter however had more meat to it at least temperature wise (clearly snow wise too lol).

[natlib]

So is the event for the 18th still showing up or did it go away??

[Ntxw]

So is the event for the 18th still showing up or did it go away??

Models have back off on anything big.

[rkbjunior]

Found these stats for Austin.

THE WETTEST SEPTEMBER TO FEBRUARY PERIODS AT AUSTIN MABRY FROM
1856 TO 2010 ARE LISTED BELOW.

1. SEPTEMBER 1913 TO FEBRUARY 1914 36.97
2. SEPTEMBER 1923 TO FEBRUARY 1924 35.85
3. SEPTEMBER 1991 TO FEBRUARY 1992 31.77
...
12. SEPTEMBER 2009 TO FEBRUARY 2010 25.52

THE COLDEST FEBRUARYS FOR AUSTIN...DEL RIO...AND SAN ANTONIO ARE
LISTED BELOW...USING THE AVERAGE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY.

AUSTIN BERGSTROM 1943 TO 2010

1. FEBRUARY 1978 AND 2010 45.9
2. FEBRUARY 2002 47.9
3. FEBRUARY 1968 48.9

AUSTIN MABRY 1854 TO 2010

1. FEBRUARY 1905 42.3
2. FEBRUARY 1895 42.8
3. FEBRUARY 1978 45.0
...
9. FEBRUARY 2010 47.3

AUSTIN

COLDEST DEC-FEB
FROM 1854 TO 2010

1. DEC 1855-FEB 1856 43.7
2. DEC 1978-FEB 1979 46.2
3. DEC 1977-FEB 1978 46.4
4. DEC 1880-FEB 1881 46.6
5. DEC 1876-FEB 1877 47.4
6. DEC 1911-FEB 1912 47.8
DEC 1884-FEB 1885 47.8
8. DEC 1983-FEB 1984 47.9
DEC 1963-FEB 1964 47.9
DEC 2009-FEB 2010 47.9

I'm glad we actually had a winter this year. Kinda balanced out the brutal summer we had. I've read a few articles from people that think we are heading to a colder period. I hope they are right. I would like every winter to be like this past one. I guess that is another topic for another thread.

Thanks again to everybody that contributed to this thread this winter. It's nice to know there are enthusiasts and professional mets that read charts and draw their own conclusions and not take what the models say as the gospel truth.

[jasons2k]

Some comments about the winter from Jeff Lindner:

Climate:

Houston reached 80 degrees yesterday the first time we have seen 80 since November 15, 2009…now that is impressive this far south and gives a testament to just how cold this winter has been. The area has just suffered through one of the coldest winter periods on record and the month of February averaged significantly below normal. Houston recorded its 5th coldest February on record (6.9 degrees below average), Hobby its 3rd (8.4 degrees below average) and College Station its 5th (7.8 degrees below average). Victoria tied for its 2nd coldest February on record! Houston only had 2 days of temperatures above average during the entire month. From the period of Dec 1-Feb 28th (meteorological winter) Houston suffered its 6th coldest winter ever and the coldest since 1977-1978, Galveston its 5th coldest winter ever, and College Station its 6th coldest winter ever. Additionally, at Corpus Christi, the number of days that were at or above 70 in February 2010 was only 4…last year there were 26 with the average being 12.

[Ntxw]

Crazy Texas weather. Though the climate up there is more similar to the high plains, winter isn't quite done with all of Texas. It's overachieving in the panhandle.

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AMARILLO HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
DALLAM AND CIMARRON COUNTIES. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO
LONGER IN EFFECT FOR DALLAM AND CIMARRON COUNTIES.

* TIMING: MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY.

* MAIN IMPACT: SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TODAY.

* OTHER IMPACTS: THE SNOWFALL MAY RESULT IN LIMITED VISIBILITIES
BELOW ONE HALF MILE. THE COMBINATION OF THESE LIMITED VISIBILITIES
AND THE SLICK OR SNOW PACKED ROADS WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.