Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[Ntxw]

It's forecasting 1" of snow around Amarillo. That's it. If you are interpreting those NCEP maps to indicate snow along the Red River then you're misinterpreting the rain to be snow on those maps. Remember, the precip on those maps is for the 6 hours PRIOR TO the valid time of the map. So the precip along the Red River is falling as rain THEN the air gets cold enough. Similar issue with the Canadian model.

He already acknowledged the surface boundary temps were too warm. He was pointing out the trend to wetter than previous runs.

[DentonGal]

its amazing how much this stormy weather reminds me of spring time... Its hailing in Beaumont

Seriously?

[Nederlander]

Yep I heard it and then looked out of my office window and sure enough.. It wasnt too big.. About dime size pellets... Lasted a couple minutes..

[Ntxw]

:uarrow: Yep I heard it and then looked out of my office window and sure enough.. It wasnt too big.. About dime size pellets... Lasted a couple minutes..

Hey you could pretend that's sleet and call it a winter!

[Nederlander]

:uarrow: Yep I heard it and then looked out of my office window and sure enough.. It wasnt too big.. About dime size pellets... Lasted a couple minutes..

Hey you could pretend that's sleet and call it a winter!

Haha I guess I should be careful what I wish for... I wish for frozen precipitation and guess what?? I get hail... ill take cold rain over hail any day lol..

[orangeblood]

I think all of the North Texas folks need to check out the 18Z NAM. It's coming in line with what the Japanese model is showing for Monday's storm.

It's forecasting 1" of snow around Amarillo. That's it. If you are interpreting those NCEP maps to indicate snow along the Red River then you're misinterpreting the rain to be snow on those maps. Remember, the precip on those maps is for the 6 hours PRIOR TO the valid time of the map. So the precip along the Red River is falling as rain THEN the air gets cold enough. Similar issue with the Canadian model.

Here's the 18Z NAM Snow Accumulation for Monday:


And Here's the 18Z NAM Precipitation for Monday. Note all the non-snow precip:

Those maps are for the 12Z NAM. The 18Z NAM is showing the storm a deeper and further south with much more precip. This model is coming in line with what the JMA is showing. Now, the biggest issue is going to be boundary layer temps. If the precip is intense enough or the model is underestimating the cold air, then we could be looking at accumulating snowfall. This system to me looks somewhat similar to the big March North Texas snowstorm of 2 years ago.

[Ntxw]

18z GFS out to 78hrs if anyone is interested. A bit different tone than before.

[Nederlander]

18z GFS looking a little better snowfall-wise for N. Texas.. I am a little concerned that the precip could be gone, however, before the temperatures drop cold enough.. Sort of like the I-10 corridor from houston to Beaumont experienced with this last system.. can someone do one of those charts that show temps and precip for DFW?

[orangeblood]

Hey Ntxw - Have you read the discussion out of Fort Worth this afternoon? Whoever was writing that discussion was in a hurry to get out of the office this afternoon. There sure wasn't much input into the upcoming storm system on Monday.

[Ntxw]

Hey Ntxw - Have you read the discussion out of Fort Worth this afternoon? Whoever was writing that discussion was in a hurry to get out of the office this afternoon. There sure wasn't much input into the upcoming storm system on Monday.

I did notice that. Probably downplaying it. Even with no snow, it's still a formidable rain maker.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
341 PM CST FRI FEB 26 2010

.DISCUSSION...
AS OF 21Z...THE SURFACE LOW HAVE MOVED TO NORTH OF PALESTINE
/KPSN/. WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH
TEXAS...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN HOLDING STEADY OF SLOWLY FALLING
MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL SLOWLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT. MOST OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY WITH NEAR SEASONAL
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME SUNDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 1/2 INCH. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH AND
FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY....PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AVERAGE 1/2 INCH
OR LESS. TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

Lol, rush to eat or go home maybe.

[orangeblood]

18z GFS looking a little better snowfall-wise for N. Texas.. I am a little concerned that the precip could be gone, however, before the temperatures drop cold enough.. Sort of like the I-10 corridor from houston to Beaumont experienced with this last system.. can someone do one of those charts that show temps and precip for DFW?

I really don't think this will be that type of system. If there is going to be snow, its going to have to become a deeper cut off ULL. That ULL will bring down the cold air from aloft rather than from the North. This is how some of the big March snowstorms have occurred around here.

[southerngale]

its amazing how much this stormy weather reminds me of spring time... Its hailing in Beaumont

Same here, during the thunderstorms throughout the day.. and when one would end, another wasn't very far behind. I told my sister we're going from a very cold winter that featured snow, to spring storms, and then hurricane season will be here before we know it. And then when that's over, it will be almost time for our annual December snow.

No hail here, though. I saw some of the purple colors going by... I'm sure that hail was in there. Current Wunderground Radar

You ought to submit a storm report to NWS and SPC.

[wxman57]

I think all of the North Texas folks need to check out the 18Z NAM. It's coming in line with what the Japanese model is showing for Monday's storm.

It's forecasting 1" of snow around Amarillo. That's it. If you are interpreting those NCEP maps to indicate snow along the Red River then you're misinterpreting the rain to be snow on those maps. Remember, the precip on those maps is for the 6 hours PRIOR TO the valid time of the map. So the precip along the Red River is falling as rain THEN the air gets cold enough. Similar issue with the Canadian model.

Here's the 18Z NAM Snow Accumulation for Monday:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/nam.gif

And Here's the 18Z NAM Precipitation for Monday. Note all the non-snow precip:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/namprcip.gif

Those maps are for the 12Z NAM. The 18Z NAM is showing the storm a deeper and further south with much more precip. This model is coming in line with what the JMA is showing. Now, the biggest issue is going to be boundary layer temps. If the precip is intense enough or the model is underestimating the cold air, then we could be looking at accumulating snowfall. This system to me looks somewhat similar to the big March North Texas snowstorm of 2 years ago.

Oops! Maps are 18Z now. Just a trace of snow in the TX panhandle and about 1.25" precip on Monday over east TX.

[DentonGal]

Man, if we could just suck some cold air down here, we could have Snowmageddan 2!

[Portastorm]

I caught this snippet from the early morning AFD out of NWSFO Austin/San Antonio:

BOTH THE GFS AND NAM ARE HINTING AT SOME SNOW IN THE NORTH TOWARD THE END OF THE EVENT
MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AT THIS TIME I THINK ANY SNOW WILL BE FARTHER NORTH THAN OUR CWA.

Wow! Did I miss something as I've pretty much figured snow/ice/sleet was finished for my area for the season?!

[wxman57]

I caught this snippet from the early morning AFD out of NWSFO Austin/San Antonio:

BOTH THE GFS AND NAM ARE HINTING AT SOME SNOW IN THE NORTH TOWARD THE END OF THE EVENT
MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AT THIS TIME I THINK ANY SNOW WILL BE FARTHER NORTH THAN OUR CWA.

Wow! Did I miss something as I've pretty much figured snow/ice/sleet was finished for my area for the season?!

You didn't miss anything. Projected soundings have your area way too warm, with the freezing level way up at 10,000 ft tomorrow night/Monday morning as the light precip passes. I think you're done for the season as far as any winter weather.

[Portastorm]

Good news to me, believe it or not. Once February is over, I'm ready for Texas Chamber of Commerce weather ... warming temps, sunshine, and occasional bouts of "fun"-derstorms. Thanks wxman57!

[Ntxw]

Also comes the deadliest season weather wise! HEAT! Dehydration, sun burns, and finally heat strokes!!! Ahh! But I do enjoy the transition period of spring though 70s and 80s very nice with relatively low humidity. Dry heat I can take. If it weren't for the lack of income taxes, I'd be out in Phoenix

[wxman57]

Getting dead in here. Finally! Time to head over to Talkin' Tropics. I don't follow the severe storms too much (unless they're coming for Houston).

[Ntxw]

Fwiw, JB thinks Monday's storm is going snow from I-20 north in Texas to Georgia.