Upcoming cold for the South (Models, Maps, Discussions)

[Tyler]

Not nearly as cold as the outbreak last December for Dallas, however, this will likely be Houston's coldest outbreak of the year, with 20's a common sight across the area.

[Tyler]

Has the 18z GFS finally gotten the Globel Models' message? AT 84 hours, the high is almost 8 MB stronger than it was on the 12z, a 1041MB high over Colorado, not quite as strong as Euro's 1047 over Montana, but its a start in the RIGHT direction. This may be a case where the GFS kind of back tracks, and has the high stronger and stronger each run.

[Portastorm]

Careful Tyler, we are talking about the 18z run of the GFS you know. Keep that in mind.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Pertinent part of the DFW AFD.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE ECMWF/CMC/UKMET SUITES...AS
WELL AS FROM THE GFSLR...CONTINUE TO SUGGEST AN AMPLIFICATION OF
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF CANADA BY LATE
WEEK...WITH VERY COLD AIR PROGGED TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD DOWN THE LEE OF
THE ROCKIES AS A RESULT. SOME DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING THE
STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIRMASS...WITH THE CMC GUIDANCE THE COLDEST
AND THE GFSLR GUIDANCE THE WARMEST. THE TRUE STRENGTH OF THE
AIRMASS WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE TWO EXTREMES...WITH A
NOTICEABLE COOLING TREND EXPECTED BY LATE FRIDAY. HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS COLD AS THOSE EXPERIENCED WITH
THE OUTBREAK OF ARCTIC AIR LAST DECEMBER.

The "not as cold as last december" statement is also based on the assumption that the cold snap will be at a strength in between the GFS and CMC. In all reality...I think the GFS 12Z run should be thrown out...and if that were the case; then with all the other models at the other end of the spectrum...we could have a real problem. I for one, think that it will be closer to the CMC than the GFS...so why even forecast in the middle?

[jasons2k]

I think the major point now is this: the days for this thread are numbered.

Only a small chance for a hard freeze here in SE Texas.
Chances for any wintry precip. are basically non-existent.

It's about time to call it a season, maybe next year.

[Extremeweatherguy]

JB is saying that from mid month on...that all places from the NW to the Plains should realize that this looks to be and will rival the coldest pattern since the late 1970s! (Now he is not mentioning this outbreak specifically...but he is saying that for a whole from about the 10th to the end of the month...we will be COLD!). He also says that despite the arguments otherwise...the upper pattern has done a complete shift from where it was in Jan. He says that we should expect the nation to see the cold to the extreme that we had seen the warmth. He also says that it will be the USA's version of Asia in January. He also is saying that he still thinks the worst case scenario is a low of 0 in Chicago, 10 in NYC and 26 in Orlando and McAllen. we'll see....looks very interesting indeed though...To me, it looks like even if this shot of cold is not that impressive...the following shot may blow it out of the water.

[Tyler]

I think the major point now is this: the days for this thread are numbered.

Only a small chance for a hard freeze here in SE Texas.
Chances for any wintry precip. are basically non-existent.

It's about time to call it a season, maybe next year.

Good chance for hard freeze, actually. At least I think there is anyway.

18z GFS MUCH colder but not as cold as Euro. Coming around though.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Finally the GFS gets it!!! The 18Z is MUCH colder! Lets hope this trend continues!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _102.shtml

-6C 850mb temps. in 102 hrs!!!

[Brent]

NWS Peachtree City, GA:

FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK THE LARGE SCALE UPPER PATTERN SHOWS SOME SIGNS
OF CHANGING AS THE LARGE AND PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
FILLS AND LIFTS NORTHEAST. THIS ALLOWS THE UPPER FLOW TO TREND TO A
MORE ZONAL PATTERN WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES. I WILL KEEP THE END
OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST DRY FOR NOW WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING
FROM BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

Birmingham:

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY).
QUIET PERIOD EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE. HIGHS IN
THE 40S ON SUNDAY WARMING INTO THE 50S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 20S.

It sure does moderate quickly.

[MiamiensisWx]

Tyler, do you think that southern Florida will receive a fairly good blast of colder, clearer conditions from this incoming cold?

[southerngale]

Careful Tyler, we are talking about the 18z run of the GFS you know. Keep that in mind.

Yeah, I think I've seen the both of you pretty much ignore the 18z GFS. Let's wait to see what the 0z says.


From another thread...

The 18z GFS has come in, and it does not look too good for the Northeast. Luckily, its the 18z GFS. Wouldn't put to much stock in it.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I think the major point now is this: the days for this thread are numbered.

Only a small chance for a hard freeze here in SE Texas.
Chances for any wintry precip. are basically non-existent.

It's about time to call it a season, maybe next year.

Good chance for hard freeze, actually.

18z GFS MUCH colder but not as cold as Euro. Coming around though.

yeah...at this point I would say an 80% chance of a hard freeze from a line from Brenham to Spring to Beaumont and northward. For DT Houston, I would say that there is a 60% chance of a hard freeze...and at the coast; the chances are 20-40%. I think we will be getting very cold. The NWS forecasts tomorrow WILL be lowered IF the models are in more agreement on the cold.

[Portastorm]

I think the major point now is this: the days for this thread are numbered.

Only a small chance for a hard freeze here in SE Texas.
Chances for any wintry precip. are basically non-existent.

It's about time to call it a season, maybe next year.

Mr. Schlitz, are you suggesting it's about time to post the "Winter=Cancel" thread?

"turn out the lights, the party's over ..."

[Tyler]

Ya, I know I said that southerngale. . The reason I said that is becuase the 18z recieves mixed data, both old and new. Perhaps the new data overwhelmingly made the model change its tune. I still think its too warm, as its the warmest model STILL, but this run is much colder than 12z.

[millerblizzard1]

I like everything that I am hearing. What worries me is that I have been hearing this was going to hit the last week of January, then the end of Jan, then the first of Feb, now the middle of Feb. It keeps getting put off. Now that could mean that when it comes it comes hard or it could mean that it does not come at all. I would like a good snow followed by a nice cold snap (so I could build a snow man with me 7 and 4 year old kids) but I wonder....

[Portastorm]

jschlitz ... fine ... but what are we to think when a NWS forecast office just up the road from Fort Worth (i.e. Norman, OK) writes this:

AS THE MODELS CONT TO TRY AND SUGGEST PATTERN CHANGE FOR NEXT WEEK
WE SHOULD SEE SOME COOLER TEMPS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. NOTHING
TO DRASTIC... JUST CLOSER TO NORMAL. LARGE COLD POOL AND
CORRESPONDING SFC HIGH DEVELOP NEXT WEEK ACROSS CANADA AND BY LATE IN
THE WEEK MODELS TRY TO DISLODGE THIS AND MOVE AIRMASS SOUTH TOWARD
SOUTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER AS HAS BEEN THE CASE RECENTLY WITH THE COLD
AIR NO WHERE TO BE FOUND EVEN WITH MODELS HINTING AT ITS COMING...
WILL TREND TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER AND TAKE A WAIT AND SEE APPROACH
BEFORE WITH GOING MUCH COOLER. KIND OF LIKE PRECIP CHANCES AROUND
HERE LATELY... ITS HARD TO PUT THEM IN UNTIL YOU SEE IT WITH YOU OWN
EYES.


Fort Worth made no mention of this possibility and talked about a westerly flow ... from a GFS model suspect beyond 168 hrs to begin with! What Norman wrote above is pragmatic and reasonable. They acknowledge what all of the prevailing thought is but they also say "I'll believe when we see more signs of it." That's all I'm trying to say.

In the age of the Internet, these forecast discussions get read by lots and lots of people. And some people -- even if they are weather weenies -- know more than the "average bear."

I can't speak for the rest of the gang here who, like me, are bullish on the weather turning much colder later next week. But if this discussion proves right and I'm wrong, I will personally e-mail those guys at Fort Worth NWS and tell them how I scoffed and laughed at their discussion and how wrong I was.

Meanwhile ... Portastorm is starting to draft his e-mail to Fort Worth NWSFO office as promised.

[Tyler]

Tyler, do you think that southern Florida will receive a fairly good blast of colder, clearer conditions from this incoming cold?

Definitely, you guys will likely see some very cool conditions Sunday and Monday, with temps possibly 10 to 15 degrees below normal.

[southerngale]

Ya, I know I said that southerngale. . The reason I said that is becuase the 18z recieves mixed data, both old and new. Perhaps the new data overwhelmingly made the model change its tune. I still think its too warm, as its the warmest model STILL, but this run is much colder than 12z.

hehe - I had to post that. I know whatever the model is, if it leans toward what you want, it's easier to believe. Been there, done that.

I would like for it to be cold enough to fire up the fireplace but mostly, I'd love some snow! I'm pretty confident there won't be snow, but I've got plenty of firewood ready to go.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Ya, I know I said that southerngale. . The reason I said that is becuase the 18z recieves mixed data, both old and new. Perhaps the new data overwhelmingly made the model change its tune. I still think its too warm, as its the warmest model STILL, but this run is much colder than 12z.

hehe - I had to post that. I know whatever the model is, if it leans toward what you want, it's easier to believe. Been there, done that.

I would like for it to be cold enough to fire up the fireplace but mostly, I'd love some snow! I'm pretty confident there won't be snow, but I've got plenty of firewood ready to go.

looks like precip. will move out too quickly for snow (although you never know...things change quickly in the weather world). What I am more concerned about is that some of the moisture that falls on Saturday will freeze on Saturday night...thus having the same effect as light freezing rain. We may have to worry about patches of black ice on roads Sunday morning. The good news is that it will be a Sunday (not a work or school day for most).

[Tyler]

Corpus Christi NWS is giving Victoria upper 20's saturday morning. If Victoria is going to see upper 20's, Houston will easily see the mid 20's..