Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[Portastorm]

Well we all know that a cold-core, strong upper level system can have a dramatic impact on the real weather underneath it ... no doubt. But in this case the GFS doesn't have that. Also, the upper level wind flow doesn't look very conducive to bringing enough cold air around to chill down the surface temps sufficiently (5,000 feet and below).

I think this could be a "player" for areas along the Red River and further north. Otherwise, cold rain. IMHO.

[Texas Snowman]

yes.. another thing this is well known for ANYONE into meteorology and iam NOT trying to be a basher
of the ft worth nws office BUT you do not have to have a REAL SOLID COLD AIRMASS in place
for snow YES you have to have a source of cold air and cold air there but it does not have to be
like other cold masses we have had prev this winter. i can remember some of the heaviest
snowfalls being w/border line temps and at that point it does not matter if the temp is 32, 33
or 23 if its coming down hard enough it will stick!

Remember, this is the same office that NEVER got the forecast right on the Snowmageddon event. So I wouldn't put much stock into what they're saying at this point in time...

[msstateguy83]

porta thats my point i think the further south you go likely a rain event but even possibly in the northern zones of fws
like decatur, bridgeport and other smaller areas up north of the metroplex but fws thinks what they want... i mean i wont
lie they have a point IT COULD be a cold rain if temps dont cool enough BUT if they do this could be one massive system impacting parts of the region so to blow it off like such to me is a big mistake...

[msstateguy83]

i know this is the tx thread but this is just a graphic to get an idea from the nws out of norman...

[DentonGal]

Thanks Portastorm. Denton is far enough north to get what the Red River counties gets sometimes....although if things remain the same with the GFS, we'd be lucky to see any frozen precipitation. Crossing my fingers and toes we get another 1.8 inches to break our snow record in Dallas.

[wxag07]

Fw nws had the snowmaggedon in the forecast on day7. They bombed on the totals, but they had snow. All models I've seen has surface temps in the 40s Monday. It's march and you need a dynamic system with cold air in place for snow. We have a weakening system with no cold air source. This system is coming from the southern pacific.

[Portastorm]

porta thats my point i think the further south you go likely a rain event but even possibly in the northern zones of fws
like decatur, bridgeport and other smaller areas up north of the metroplex but fws thinks what they want... i mean i wont
lie they have a point IT COULD be a cold rain if temps dont cool enough BUT if they do this could be one massive system impacting parts of the region so to blow it off like such to me is a big mistake...

I would agree with you that the northern fringes of the NWSFO Fort Worth CWA are questionable. We're still a long ways out from this system and, as we all know, much could change. It will be interesting to see if the model trends continue to weaken the system or if they'll return to the more stout-looking depiction we saw yesterday.

[txagwxman]

Sounding suggest nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates from 850 to the surface, thus it maybe a cold rain Dallas next Monday...still tough call. Thicknesses are < 540 on the ECMWF, and 850 mb < 0C.

[txagwxman]

GFS hinting at snow TXK to OKC this Fri.

[jasons2k]

yes.. another thing this is well known for ANYONE into meteorology and iam NOT trying to be a basher
of the ft worth nws office BUT you do not have to have a REAL SOLID COLD AIRMASS in place
for snow YES you have to have a source of cold air and cold air there but it does not have to be
like other cold masses we have had prev this winter. i can remember some of the heaviest
snowfalls being w/border line temps and at that point it does not matter if the temp is 32, 33
or 23 if its coming down hard enough it will stick!

Remember, this is the same office that NEVER got the forecast right on the Snowmageddon event. So I wouldn't put much stock into what they're saying at this point in time...

I would give them some credit though. Yes, they missed the Snowmageddon, as did most any public-facing forecaster. As some of the TV mets said in the DMN article a few pages back, you just don't go on-camera and forecast the biggest snowfall in history - especially when none of the models supported it.

Most of the time, they do a great job, as do our pro-mets, and I would trust their guidance.

There doesn't appear to be anything like that in the cards with these next two systems.

To be quite blunt, if some are forecasting a 'major event' or 'massive system' for the Metroplex out of this, based on what we see now, I would quickly write it off as hype. There is just nothing credible that points to that right now.

[sphelps8681]

Does anyone know of a website I can go to and get weather info for long range forecast. Will be up at Sam Rayburn lake the week of March 8th. I was wanting to see what the conditions might be.

[Nederlander]

Does anyone know of a website I can go to and get weather info for long range forecast. Will be up at Sam Rayburn lake the week of March 8th. I was wanting to see what the conditions might be.

http://www.nws.noaa.gov

[orangeblood]

yes.. another thing this is well known for ANYONE into meteorology and iam NOT trying to be a basher
of the ft worth nws office BUT you do not have to have a REAL SOLID COLD AIRMASS in place
for snow YES you have to have a source of cold air and cold air there but it does not have to be
like other cold masses we have had prev this winter. i can remember some of the heaviest
snowfalls being w/border line temps and at that point it does not matter if the temp is 32, 33
or 23 if its coming down hard enough it will stick!

Remember, this is the same office that NEVER got the forecast right on the Snowmageddon event. So I wouldn't put much stock into what they're saying at this point in time...

I would give them some credit though. Yes, they missed the Snowmageddon, as did most any public-facing forecaster. As some of the TV mets said in the DMN article a few pages back, you just don't go on-camera and forecast the biggest snowfall in history - especially when none of the models supported it.

Most of the time, they do a great job, as do our pro-mets, and I would trust their guidance.

There doesn't appear to be anything like that in the cards with these next two systems.

To be quite blunt, if some are forecasting a 'major event' or 'massive system' for the Metroplex out of this, based on what we see now, I would quickly write it off as hype. There is just nothing credible that points to that right now.

Jason - I recall that majority of the models had at least 6 inches of snowfall forecasted for the DFW metroplex 24 hours prior to the event, with the NAM forecasting almost exactly what happened. So for them to only be forecasting a dusting to 3 inches just doesn't sit right with most of us. It was right there it front of them and they chose to ignore it. This seems to happen time and time again.

[sphelps8681]

Does anyone know of a website I can go to and get weather info for long range forecast. Will be up at Sam Rayburn lake the week of March 8th. I was wanting to see what the conditions might be.

http://www.nws.noaa.gov

I appreciate that Nederlander, but it does not go far enough out. Unless I am missing something.

[msstateguy83]

http://www.accuweather.com has a 15 day outlook but being that far out still i would check back as you get closer
b/c weather can change drastically in time...

[Portastorm]

Does anyone know of a website I can go to and get weather info for long range forecast. Will be up at Sam Rayburn lake the week of March 8th. I was wanting to see what the conditions might be.

All you can really do when looking for an idea on the weather 12 days out, is to watch the GFS runs and see what type of pattern is showing. And even then, as we all know, it's a bit of a crapshoot.

For example, the GFS is showing rain most of that week and temps mainly in the 60s.

Here is what you could try. Go to the link below and when prompted, type in "Lufkin, Texas" in the location window in the upper right. It will then give you a 5-day forecast for Lufkin and other info. On the right hand side you'll see some links and click on the "16-day forecast" and that will give you a detailed look at the latest GFS forecast for Lufkin. Not saying it'll be correct ... but that is what you will get. I picked Lufkin because that's the closest place to Rayburn I could think of that would have an airport code and give you a close-enough forecast. I hope this helps!

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/

[msstateguy83]

i must say i also agree orangeblood the evening before the event i guess it was the 00z runs
was showing a good swath of 6 inches right over the metroplex and i put a graphic on here
of i think up to 9 inches i was to afraid to go higher then that though incase the event didnt
pan out... ok back on topic...

[msstateguy83]

i should have given you that one go to portas link....

[srainhoutx]

Perhaps it's time to get back on Topic and discuss what the guidance suggests rather than 'beat a dead horse'. Pacific RECON (G-IV) is tasked for the upcoming systems. More data from those flights (today's mission is underway with another scheduled for tomorrow) will provide valuable information and refinement for guidance output. Just my 0.02 cents FWIW.

[msstateguy83]

ty for that info srain yeah that should help w/the later runs hopefully we will get a better ideal on this
upcoming late wkend system w/the RECON out there. b/c this is gonna be a close one w/temps esp for
areas in far n.tx up near the redriver still looks like quite a powerful system to me.