Texas Winter 2024-2025

[wxman22]

Models are showing signs that a pattern conductive for severe weather may arrive in early March. Can't rule out a cold core driven snow event if a shortwave is potent and digs far enough south. But at this time though I feel more confident that we will see thunderstorms/severe weather more than anything wintry. Regardless, much needed rainfall may be on the menu soon...

[Texas Snowman]

We got above freezing here in Denison about 9:30 a.m. this morning. That ended our subfreezing streak at 89 hours, I believe. The Great Freeze of 2025 has come to an end!

[Stratton23]

41 here, man im not ready for the abomination that we call spring, time to get that AC cranked down to 60

[Portastorm]

Nice little glaze here over everything here in East Austin this morning. My front/back porch showing 32/33 degrees. Street looks wet but don't think it's too slick judging by some traffic. But I didn't walk out there.

They (streets) were fine. Just wet. I had some ice forming on the windows but that melted quickly. For our area this may be the last wintry precip we get until next winter.

[txtwister78]

Models are showing signs that a pattern conductive for severe weather may arrive in early March. Can't rule out a cold core driven snow event if a shortwave is potent and digs far enough south. But at this time though I feel more confident that we will see thunderstorms/severe weather more than anything wintry. Regardless, much needed rainfall may be on the menu soon...

Honestly, I think it's a bit too progressive of a pattern as it stands now and so while it's certainly possible in early March that one of these systems currently modeled could bring a round of severe, I don't see a big signal for it just yet either. Still over a week out to watch but models aren't hinting at big cape values just yet and with these fast-moving systems, return moisture and instability could be limited.

[wxman22]

Models are showing signs that a pattern conductive for severe weather may arrive in early March. Can't rule out a cold core driven snow event if a shortwave is potent and digs far enough south. But at this time though I feel more confident that we will see thunderstorms/severe weather more than anything wintry. Regardless, much needed rainfall may be on the menu soon...

Honestly, I think it's a bit too progressive of a pattern as it stands now and so while it's certainly possible in early March that one of these systems currently modeled could bring a round of severe, I don't see a big signal for it just yet either. Still over a week out to watch but models aren't hinting at big cape values just yet and with these fast-moving systems, return moisture and instability could be limited.

I'm not sating there's a big signal either, just posting the possibilities with an active southern storm track this time of year with good shear. While I like to speculate on the long range weather pattern, my post don't mean I'm "all in" though. And I hope no one is taking my post that way. If I feel there is a high chance of something happening I will clearly state that. That's why I mentioned in my earlier post that regardless of what happens, some needed rain may be back on the menu. And also why i mention "thunderstorms/severe weather" as I was accounting for the possibility of a non severe event(s) of just regular thunderstorms also.

[txtwister78]

Models are showing signs that a pattern conductive for severe weather may arrive in early March. Can't rule out a cold core driven snow event if a shortwave is potent and digs far enough south. But at this time though I feel more confident that we will see thunderstorms/severe weather more than anything wintry. Regardless, much needed rainfall may be on the menu soon...

Honestly, I think it's a bit too progressive of a pattern as it stands now and so while it's certainly possible in early March that one of these systems currently modeled could bring a round of severe, I don't see a big signal for it just yet either. Still over a week out to watch but models aren't hinting at big cape values just yet and with these fast-moving systems, return moisture and instability could be limited.

I'm not sating there's a big signal either, just posting the possibilities with an active southern storm track this time of year with good shear. While I like to speculate on the long range weather pattern, my post don't mean I'm "all in" though. And I hope no one is taking my post that way. If I feel there is a high chance of something happening I will clearly state that. That's why I mentioned in my earlier post that regardless of what happens, some needed rain may be back on the menu. And also why i mention "thunderstorms/severe weather" as I was accounting for the possibility of a non severe event(s) of just regular thunderstorms also.

No need to clarify your post. All good. When I read "Models showing a pattern that may be conducive (assuming that's what you meant) for severe weather, I took a look, but again no worries. No pressure on here to get it right my friend and definitely not something I would assume anyone is viewing that seriously at this range anyway for the moment. Just thought I would take a look at the extended as well.

But yeah thunderstorms/severe weather definitely brings rain associated with either scenario so hopefully we get the rain without the severe down here where we need it.

[wxman57]

I don't see any good in this type of weather. 30s or low 40s and raining. I've been stuck in the house for days. Can't do anything but sit inside and try to stay warm. Give me the first 90+ deg day soon!

[Stratton23]

Heck no

[txtwister78]

I don't see any good in this type of weather. 30s or low 40s and raining. I've been stuck in the house for days. Can't do anything but sit inside and try to stay warm. Give me the first 90+ deg day soon!

Lol. 90 plus with Texas humidity probably pushing it for me but I would take 80's definitely over this weather mush.

[HockeyTx82]

I don't see any good in this type of weather. 30s or low 40s and raining. I've been stuck in the house for days. Can't do anything but sit inside and try to stay warm. Give me the first 90+ deg day soon!

I'm reporting this post

I'll take a cool rainy day over anything summer brings.

[Quixotic]

End of 12z fantasyland has a pretty intense storm over southern plains. Storms in the warm sector, snow on the north and back end. Something to watch.

[DW5522]

Maybe we get lucky and summer doesn’t come this year? Any pro Mets think we got a chance.

[Brent]

Interestingly March beats February and December even here on the number of all time snowiest months. I guess we'll see but I wouldn't be surprised at all if we get something else before it's over. Seen a lot of talk about the second week of March maybe being interesting

As far as summer I've quit believing it won't be horrible unfortunately. I think the larger issue right now is the possibility of a drought because it's looking quite dry and even that snow the other day didn't have much moisture. Hopefully not because that definitely won't help summer

[gpsnowman]

Decent rain overnight. Cool day today then a nice warmup on tap. Looking forward to some outdoor work this week with the hope of one more winter chance next month. The 70s are going to feel good but that's about as high as I like it.

[wxman57]

I don't see any good in this type of weather. 30s or low 40s and raining. I've been stuck in the house for days. Can't do anything but sit inside and try to stay warm. Give me the first 90+ deg day soon!

I'm reporting this post

I'll take a cool rainy day over anything summer brings.

Cool, rainy days are okay for staying indoors. However, if you were a cyclist who liked to go for 30-40 mile bike rides, you would not find this weather so pleasant. Thankfully, we've likely had our last freeze of the winter here in Houston. Nothing significant in the extended range on any model, just slow warming.

[Ntxw]

Ah yes the hot season approaches. Nothing like 90+ everyday maybe a few 100s! If you saved money on your heating bill with warm winter days, don't worry the the very hot summer days will eat it right up . No seriously just have to accept it our 2-3 summer reprieve is just about over, and the 8-10 months of TEXAS weather is drawing near.

[wxman22]

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0333 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

Valid 261200Z - 031200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Moisture will start to advance inland across Texas on Wednesday/D4,
but will be shunted into the Gulf on Thursday as a cold front
advances south. This will result in minimal thunderstorm activity
for much of the extended forecast period. By Sunday/D8 and beyond,
most extended range forecast guidance suggests significant moisture
recovery across the Gulf and some inland moisture intrusion across
the Southern Plains and Southeast which will likely increase
thunderstorm and severe weather potential. However, until that time,
thunderstorm and severe weather potential remains low due to the
lack of sufficient instability.

..Bentley.. 02/23/2025

[wxman57]

Ah yes the hot season approaches. Nothing like 90+ everyday maybe a few 100s! If you saved money on your heating bill with warm winter days, don't worry the the very hot summer days will eat it right up . No seriously just have to accept it our 2-3 summer reprieve is just about over, and the 8-10 months of TEXAS weather is drawing near.

I agree, love the 90s (I recognize your sarcasm)! Looking at the long-range forecast, I don't see any prolonged onshore flow over the next couple of weeks that could get our temps back above 80. That's somewhat concerning. Oh well, I helped the day shift with advisories on TCs Alfred & Rae in the South Pacific. We may have 6 active storms in the Southern Hemisphere by Monday or Tuesday. Advisories every 6 hours on all of them. 3 in the South Pac and 3 in the South Indian. SH tropics are quite active.

Oh well, temperature at 48F here now but the rain is ending. Going crawl under my electric blanket as I lay on a giant pillow-sized heating pad. It's 73 in my office, but I'm freezing...

[wxman22]

Too bad there's no cold air available with the early March shortwave the models are showing. At least some needed rain looks to be on the way though.