Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[srainhoutx]

It's now mixing with light mist as well Jason. I've had a very tough time getting the dogs out all day. They are ready for pool weather. Good night folks.

[southerngale]

is there a tropics topic concentrating on texas?

If there's something headed for Texas, there's usually a topic for people to talk about evacuations, closings, etc. - stuff that would be more of interest to those affected. Other than that, there are various threads about models and whatever topic regarding the tropics someone wants to bring up. There's a main thread for each storm and if you think this winter forum gets busy at times... well, you ain't seen nuthin' yet! lol

Search the Storm Archives section. Many threads end up thousands of pages long. Just poke around the whole forum. There's also an Off Topic forum, Sports forum... something to keep y'all on the board year 'round. I hope you all stick around after the winter weather ends.

[BrokenGlass]

Well, for us Metroplexers, FW AFD has us on a bear hunt...

Previous discussion... /issued 406 PM CST Tuesday Feb 23 2010/
snowfall totals reached 3 to 5 inches within much of the Winter
Storm Warning area. Although the snow has diminished in western
portions of the warning...will maintain entire warning area at
least through the evening commute. Heavy snow bursts from Temple/
Killeen...eastward to Palestine...have resulted in accumulations
on roadways sufficient to cause disruptions to travel. A Winter
Weather Advisory will continue for the remainder of the County Warning Area south
of I-20...where some snowfall totals have been 2 to 4 inches.
Flurries recently reported in Abilene...Breckenridge...and
Comanche. Will carry flurries in initial evening period along and
just north of I-20 corridor...but activity will continue to
diminish into the early evening. Sub-freezing temperatures
areawide Wednesday morning...with potential for icy patches during
the morning commute...particularly where snowfall was greatest.


Two more events on tap...as progressive pattern continues. The
first will be Thursday night into Friday when the next cold front
arrives. A more prolonged rain event is in store Sunday and
Monday.


Drier air will filter into North Texas through Wednesday...but
moisture will surge back into the region Thursday. Appears
downglide/drying ensues...and 500mb trough axis will have
passed...before column cools enough to support snow. Will continue
to assess as event approaches...but regardless...pattern is not
conducive for significant snowfall. At this time...will refrain
from introducing snow along the Red River...where Norman has
rain/snow mix with light accumulations on Oklahoma side.


Good model agreement with closed polar low slowly moving across
the Lone Star state Sunday and Monday. Temperatures will be
perilously close to freezing far northern zones. Will bear
watching as well. 25

[Turtle]

It was rain/snowing here (Marshall, TX) from like 4 - 7PM. According to the intellicast radar the rain/snow line seems to be 1-2 counties south of here.

[Nederlander]

Well my winter is now complete.. Got to see some good snow in Chester just NW of woodville.. I'm pulling for you guys up north to break the record.. I'm also looking forward to spring storms and hurricane season will also be here soon.. pics didn't come out too well but ill try to post one or two tomorrow.. I'm glad nobody got really disappointted with this storm.. Gfs handled it quite well..

[Ntxw]

Well my winter is now complete.. Got to see some good snow in Chester just NW of woodville.. I'm pulling for you guys up north to break the record.. I'm also looking forward to spring storms and hurricane season will also be here soon.. pics didn't come out too well but ill try to post one or two tomorrow.. I'm glad nobody got really disappointted with this storm.. Gfs handled it quite well..

Glad you made it back safely! Pattern is still rather wet with cold hanging around somewhere for at least the next week, winter hasn't given it's last grasp yet

[Storm Tracker SA-CS]

Well my winter is now complete.. Got to see some good snow in Chester just NW of woodville.. I'm pulling for you guys up north to break the record.. I'm also looking forward to spring storms and hurricane season will also be here soon.. pics didn't come out too well but ill try to post one or two tomorrow.. I'm glad nobody got really disappointted with this storm.. Gfs handled it quite well..

yeah i agree with you. i loved this storm! and the gfs handled it very well. it was indicating a possible snow event for us since last thursday i think.

[Nederlander]

Update: very light, misty precip here in Nederland, south of bmt.. But its definitely frozen.. Feels kinda weird

[DentonGal]

I'm glad you folks down south got some winter weather...finally! Does anyone think Friday's system will bring any wintery weather to North Texas? What is it looking like for the system coming through on Monday?

[DentonGal]

Here are the thoughts out of Fort Worth this morning regarding the systems on Friday and Monday for DFW.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
526 AM CST WED FEB 24 2010

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES
TODAY...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NW TODAY AT 10KT OR LESS...BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE AROUND SUNSET AND THEN SOUTHERLY AT 5-10 KT TONIGHT.

TR.92

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CST WED FEB 24 2010/
BACK EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS HAS ONE MORE ROW OF COUNTIES TO GO
BEFORE CLEARING THE CWA. CLEAR SKIES BEHIND THE BACKEDGE IS
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO BELOW FREEZING. RESIDUAL MOISTURE
FREEZING ON AREA ROADWAYS WILL BECOME A PROBLEM THIS MORNING AND
A SPS HIGHLIGHTING THIS HAZARD IS BEING ISSUED. CLEAR SKIES WILL
REMAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 40S.
UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE A FEW DEGREES WHERE 2+ INCHES OF SNOW FELL
YESTERDAY.

NORTH TEXAS WILL REMAIN IN A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 5
DAYS AS 2 SYSTEMS APPROACH THE REGION. THE 1ST SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
THE REGION THURS NIGHT/FRI MORNING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE BEST
MOISTURE AND THEREFORE PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE EAST OF INTERSTATE
35. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE PRECIP TYPE AS RAIN ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION. THE GFS DOES PRODUCE SNOW IN THE NORTHEASTERN
ZONES FRIDAY MORNING...BUT THINK THIS SOLUTION HAS A FEW CONCERNS.
SURFACE WINDS THURSDAY WILL RETURN FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
ADVECTING MOISTURE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION. NO
TRUE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED AND TEMPERATURES WILL STAY TOO WARM AT
THE TIME THE PRECIPITATION IS FALLING. THE 00Z MODEL RUNS KEEP
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S DURING THE
EVENT...EVEN THE GFS WHICH OUTPUTS SNOW. IF FUTURE MODEL RUNS DID
COOL TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES...A RAIN/SNOW MIX WOULD BE
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHEAST...BUT TEMPERATURES WOULD REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING AND IMPACTS WOULD BE MINIMAL.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ON SATURDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S FOR
HIGHS. THE NEXT UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP. ONCE AGAIN...STILL
EXPECTING ONLY RAIN FOR NORTH TEXAS AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD
STAY TOO WARM IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES
VERTICALLY STACKED DUE TO LACK OF BAROCLINIC ENERGY. WITH ALL OF
THE SNOWFALL EVENTS THIS SEASON...THERE HAS ALWAYS BEEN COLD AIR
IN PLACE OR NEARBY AND THIS IS NOT THE CASE WITH BOTH THE FRIDAY
AND MONDAY SYSTEMS.

ONCE THE MONDAY SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
ONCE AGAIN SET UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL US WITH TEMPERATURES
MODERATING TUESDAY.

[msstateguy83]

"THERE HAS ALWAYS BEEN COLD AIR IN PLACE OR NEARBY AND THIS IS NOT THE CASE WITH BOTH THE FRIDAY
AND MONDAY SYSTEMS" NWS FW QUOTE -

to me that statement is borderline reckless B/C temps will be close ESP in the northern fws office zone
like bridgeport,decatur areas... also maybe the low pressure system will be weakening as it moves into
our region per what they see BUT it will still be quite powerful and anyone in its path with cold enough
temps has a good likelyhood of quite heavy snowfall IMO.....

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[msstateguy83]

San Angelo nws forecast disc.... THEY EVEN SAY ITS TO EARLY TO RUN OUT SNOW.....

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 453 AM CST WED FEB 24 2010/

SHORT TERM...

UPPER TROUGH THAT BROUGHT RECORD SNOW TO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS ON
TUESDAY WILL EXIT EAST TEXAS TODAY. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME MORE ZONAL LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD OF NEXT
SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT BASIN. SFC HIGH PRES CURRENTLY
OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE INTO EAST TEXAS BY THIS EVENING ALLOWING
SURFACE WINDS TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND SOUTHERLY
BY THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL BE SUNNY TODAY WITH AN INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUDS FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. RESIDUAL SNOW COVER SHOULD MELT
FAIRLY QUICKLY UNDER FULL SUNSHINE TODAY AND WENT FAIRLY CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE ON TEMPS. WARMEST READINGS WILL OCCUR OVER WEST AND
SOUTHWEST ZONES WHERE SURFACE WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST SOONER. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 SOUTHWEST WITH UPPER 40S
ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SOME INCREASE
IN HIGH CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN WARMER MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WITH LOWS
NEAR FREEZING.

$$

LONG TERM...
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND FURTHER
NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE AND HAVE PULLED BACK ON THE PRECIP
CHANCES FOR MOST AREAS. WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR THE BIG COUNTRY...HOWEVER...WE COULD SEE SOME BREEZY
SURFACE WINDS BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH THE
NEXT STRONGER CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO THE AREA BY SUNDAY. SYSTEM IS
SLOWED DOWN A BIT...SO HAVE BACKED AWAY FROM PRECIP CHANCES DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY. PRECIP BEGINS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGHER
POPS SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY COOL
ENOUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS...AND HAVE CONTINUED WITH A RAIN AND
SNOW MIX FOR EARLY MONDAY...JUST TOO FAR OUT TO BE SURE BUT CAN
NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY.

[msstateguy83]

LUBBOCK FORECAST DISC....

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CST WED FEB 24 2010/

SHORT TERM...
SKIES ARE CLEAR OVER WEST TEXAS EARLY WED MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE
UPPER-LVL STORM SYSTEM NOW LOCATED NEAR THE TX UPPER GULF COAST. TTU/WEST
TEXAS MESONET OBS SHOW LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER...THICK FOG DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY TO BE HELD AT BAY BY
DRY ADVECTION IN LOW-LVLS. WILL LEAVE FOG MENTION OUT OF GRIDS FOR
NOW BUT WILL WATCH FOR ANY FOG DVPMNT ACROSS THE SNOW-COVERED AREAS.

OTHERWISE...UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DEAMPLIFY AND BECOME
MORE ZONAL ACROSS WTX TDY/TONIGHT. THIS IN TURN WILL INDUCE
LEE-TROUGHING AND A RETURN TO S-SW WINDS TO THE FA BY THIS
AFTERNOON. IT MAY EVEN BECOME A BIT BREEZY ACROSS THE SW
PANHANDLE/NW SPLNS. WV IMAGERY SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE
ENTRAINED AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE MOVING TOWARD THE GREAT BASIN. SOME OF
THIS MOISTURE/HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPILL ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND MOVE
ACROSS WTX STARTING THIS AFTERNOON WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY BY LATE TONIGHT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN THE SPOTTY SNOWPACK.
GENERALLY HAVE SLIGHTLY UNDERCUT GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD ALSO BE WARMER WITH THE SRLY
WINDS AND MORE CLOUD COVER. 0Z NAM SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SHALLOW RADIATION FOG OVER THE MOIST GROUND EARLY THU MORNING...BUT
THIS POTENTIAL LOOKS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN GRIDS ATTM.

LONG TERM...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST MAY SEE TWO SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA. THE
FIRST OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL BE ON THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA
LATE THURSDAY. ALL MODELS AGREE BRINGING THIS FEATURE NORTH. MOST
OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
AND OKLAHOMA. MOST OF THE AREA COULD SEE SOME STRONGER SURFACE
WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM THOUGH THE TIMING IS NOT GREAT FOR A WINDY
AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY. MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
INCREASING ON THURSDAY HOWEVER LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
DRY. THEREFORE HAVE CUT POPS BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AREAS. IN ADDITION...A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
LATE ON THURSDAY. IF PRECIPITATION WERE TO OCCUR IT MAY BEGIN AS
RAIN AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BY FRIDAY MORNING. IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS
ON SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE.

THE NEXT MAJOR SYSTEM IS DEPICTED IN MODELS AS A STRONG CLOSED LOW
TO MOVE OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE DECENT AGREEMENT
ON THIS FEATURE. LIFT WILL BE INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE
COLUMN MOISTENING FROM THE TOP DOWN. WILL CONTINUE TO BROAD BRUSH
THE POPS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. BOTH SUNDAY
AND MONDAY COULD POSSIBLY BE CLOUDY AND COOL DAYS. A COLD FRONT IS
PROGGED IN THE MODELS TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THIS COULD
SUPPORT SNOW CHANCES FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. DETAILS REGARDING
THIS SYSTEM ARE STILL SKETCHY THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST. JDV

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

[msstateguy83]

NORMAN FORECAST DISC...


000
FXUS64 KOUN 240959
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
359 AM CST WED FEB 24 2010

.DISCUSSION...
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION
TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS EAST AND LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS WITHIN
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. FEW LOW CLOUDS ARE LINGERING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE FULL SUN TODAY BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS
THICKEN VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT. NICE WEATHER WILL NOT
LAST HOWEVER...AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AS IT APPROACHES
COMPLICATED FLOW DOWNSTREAM. SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM TX/OK PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS THURSDAY. GFS IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN NAM...THEREFORE
STRENGTHENING SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTH FASTER WHICH WILL
KEEP AT LEAST NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA ON THE CLOUDY COLD SIDE. LIFT
WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING WHICH
MAY RESULT IN WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA. MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND 8H MAY KEEP MOST AREAS
TO WARM FOR SNOW THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID EVENING. HOWEVER...MOST
AREAS NORTH OF I-40 WILL SEE MOST OF THE PRECIP TRANISITION TO A
WET SNOW OVERNIGHT. BEST LIFT GOING INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL SHIFT
ACROSS FAR EASTERN ZONES AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA WITH MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION ENDING BY NOON FRIDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WHERE 1-3
INCHES MAY FALL.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING
SPREADING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE WINDS WILL RETURN TO A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
STILL UNCERTAINTIES WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH REGARDS TO PRECIP TYPE...
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
SOUTHERN PARTS OF OKLAHOMA MAY HAVE BEST CHANCE FOR A HEAVY WET
SNOW OR VERY COLD RAIN.

COLD SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD SOUTH AS SYSTEM DEPARTS MONDAY. THIS
WILL BRING BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY MARCH.

[txagwxman]

Well my winter is now complete.. Got to see some good snow in Chester just NW of woodville.. I'm pulling for you guys up north to break the record.. I'm also looking forward to spring storms and hurricane season will also be here soon.. pics didn't come out too well but ill try to post one or two tomorrow.. I'm glad nobody got really disappointted with this storm.. Gfs handled it quite well..

The way things are shaping up (nino fading, warmer Atlantic sea surface temps), we could see an above average season.

[msstateguy83]

ECMWF even appears abit further south on the last run i looked at so cooling of the temps is the CRITCIAL factor
w/this system.. this HAS to be watched closely and cannot be just wrote off b/c it looks to be a monster of a system!

[DentonGal]

ECMWF even appears abit further south on the last run i looked at so cooling of the temps is the CRITCIAL factor
w/this system.. this HAS to be watched closely and cannot be just wrote off b/c it looks to be a monster of a system!

You're referring to Monday's system and not Friday's....correct?

[Ntxw]

He is. The GFS is still very close in trying to keep the low cutoff, I would like to see it continue to do so and for that high to build down a little bit faster. Otherwise it would just be a cold rain. Far out though and all of the models generate some snow atm.

[msstateguy83]

yes.. another thing this is well known for ANYONE into meteorology and iam NOT trying to be a basher
of the ft worth nws office BUT you do not have to have a REAL SOLID COLD AIRMASS in place
for snow YES you have to have a source of cold air and cold air there but it does not have to be
like other cold masses we have had prev this winter. i can remember some of the heaviest
snowfalls being w/border line temps and at that point it does not matter if the temp is 32, 33
or 23 if its coming down hard enough it will stick!

[DentonGal]

Thanks for the explanation msstateguy and Ntxw. I think I've figured out how to read at least the GFS for winter weather, but the statement from the FW NWS threw me for a loop.