Texas Winter 2025-2026

[Brent]

Regardless of when it happens, these giant ridges parking themselves over Texas 4-5 times a year for weeks on end are a very bad long term trend. We can’t sustain this pattern of going a month-plus without rain and then getting a deluge. Isn’t this how deserts start to form?

Right and I don't like that pattern around Alaska and there's been years it never breaks... Even up here...

And the New Years timeframe while cooler is still way above normal and dry right now

[wxman57]

Looks like we will finish out December on quite a warm note. No white Christmas for much of the country. Even in Chicago with all the recent snow may get into the low 40s on Christmas. Upper 70s to low 80s here in Houston next week. Great for cycling. If it's not going to snow in Houston, then it might as well be 80 degrees for Christmas. Upper-level flow pattern through December is not one to support any major push of cold air southward to the Gulf coast. It's going to take a major pattern change for that to happen. Of course, it's not even officially winter yet. A lot can happen in January and February.

[Stratton23]

Im starting to target around the 27th for a change in the pattern of potentially at least re introducing rain chances, still will be some time before it gets cold again, but all models GFS/ Euro/ AIFS, CMC all agree on some sort of storm system moving in from the west, SE ridge gets suppressed to more of a neutral look, their are some chinks in this patterns armor

[rwfromkansas]

I hate the feeling of addiction that comes from refreshing the page to see if something has changed. Lol. Hoopefully we will see some stuff start to align for mid-January. The goalposts keep getting pushed.

[Stratton23]

After looking at todays model runs, their seems to be decent agreement in the models for some sort of storm system to eject out of baja california and across texas sometime around the 28th ish , i believe thats the storm system that should be the key driver in causing a change in the upper air pattern over north america, im still not getting hopes up just yet for rain, but their definitely is reason to be optimistic that this big SE ridge of death pattern isnt here to stay long term

[Brent]

Forgive me for not being optimistic but like Christmas may be near 80 degrees here which it's been 70 years since that happened(on Christmas Eve) 73 is the record for Christmas Day

[Stratton23]

Brent yeah thats no fun, definitely nothing jolly about getting near record warm high temperatures for christmas, thays when you know its a truly miserable pattern lol, but their is some hope showing up, at least the potential for a slightly more active weather pattern just after christmas

[Iceresistance]

I hate to say this, but I think the cockroach death ridge has came back.

[Brent]

I hate to say this, but I think the cockroach death ridge has came back.

Yeah I think the only good news right now is that at least it's not summer

My other problem is most of the warm Christmases here the winter sucked too other than a couple. Odds are not in our favor based off that

[Stratton23]

lol GFS with another fantasy fun run lol

[HockeyTx82]

https://www.fox4news.com/weather/dallas ... -christmas

Nice

[Brent]

60 degrees at sunrise lol the torch has arrived ..

And yeah I'm curious just how warm Christmas is. Only 3 times we've hit 80 in December and one was Christmas Eve 1955. I mean if we're gonna do this might as well go all out? At least it's not July

[Iceresistance]

60 degrees at sunrise lol the torch has arrived ..

And yeah I'm curious just how warm Christmas is. Only 3 times we've hit 80 in December and one was Christmas Eve 1955. I mean if we're gonna do this might as well go all out? At least it's not July

I'm at 50 degrees rn

[TomballEd]

6 hour GFS runs form a sort of ensemble. 6Z/18Z initial conditions should be very near the 6 hour time of the prior run, minus balloon soundings. Model swings each run suggests a low confidence forecast.

[Lagreeneyes03]

Seems so strange to me that with such a heat wave coming, nary a rain/severe threat, but I guess since there's no big temp gradient; cold/hot line not much to see.