Texas Winter 2024-2025

[txtwister78]

[Cpv17]

Lol. Well, that's a pretty broad statement there my friend. Not sure specifically who you're referring to but good luck in any field finding 100% perfection but that alone shouldn't discredit the entire field. Forecasting weather despite all our technology advances and resources can still be a complex challenge at times as we've all witnessed with so many moving pieces to it and often as I've stated on here before just our general location/geographic variables alone.

I referenced forecast misses above and the importance I think of being as transparent as possible with the public and not just before or during the forecasted event, but perhaps more importantly now the after-action post event summary in terms of what was known and perhaps not known by the forecaster to educate and at the same time improve trust?

There’s some people I trust more without met degrees than some who actually have them. Just because you have a degree doesn’t mean anything. Same goes for any field of work.

Well again to each their own and that may work for you, but I also think that works both ways though in many respects, especially in those fields which again can impact life and property. I know we're talking about weather here specifically, but for example I don't know about you, but when it comes to my health or that of my family, I'm not trusting "just anyone" to give me health advice or operate on me for example without an advanced medical degree and a hell of a lot of experience behind it so why would I do that in a high impact weather event that could have the same implications potentially?

You can find "bad" in any field with or without the degree yes, but I think it's more limited in scope than the broad-brush approach that some tend to focus on. My view is if it's about protecting your life and property, I want the best I can find in any field with the most experience behind it. That's obviously earned over time which goes back to the discussion about improving trust in meteorology but good luck if you can find that elsewhere without the training and experience.

Yeah, it just depends on the field. Obviously, for anything medical related they better have the degree for it lol

There’s some terrible on air mets over here in Houston. Only a few that are decent and maybe 1-2 that are legit.

[JDawg512]

So I guess Austin is generally in the clear?

[txtwister78]

Yep, agreed. There's a big difference between a weather discussion forum vs pro mets or anyone acting like a pro met on youtube or instagram. It's a big responsibility, once you declare yourself an "expert" in a public setting, considering the public planning, property and even sometimes life threatening conditions you can encounter with weather. I really like your point re: pro mets admitting mistakes, this is really lacking these days likely due to the threat of other sources the public can go to besides the NWS or TV mets. Personally, I trust people more when they can admit mistakes...we're all human after all (everyone will make mistakes) and weather forecasting is probably one of the most humbling professions out there. Admit you got the forecast wrong/aspects you learned from it/educate the public on why you missed the forecast and then move on!

Unless I'm missing some sort of sacrasm in Spann's post, he's part of the problem by declaring no significant weather events over the next 10 days. That's insane considering he's in the deep south in late Feb/Early March - this isn't mid summer under a massive heat dome!!!

Perhaps he shouldn't have gone that far out to make that call, but I also give him a bit of a pass in that the guy has been doing this for 40 years plus (so called old timer) back in the day when models weren't really a thing and mets had to rely more on pattern recognition and old school forecasting. So, to me it reads different from a guy like him. I'm not suggesting he's perfect, but I would give guys like him who have been in the field for a long time the benefit of the doubt.

Completely agree with your first point.

I know its just one Operational run but just look at this mornings GFS for day 9 in the deep south....that's a potential severe thunderstorm outbreak. The potential is clearly there...so it's not only not very smart or responsible, it's flat out hypocritical to declare something like that while taking jabs at other "social media" warriors!

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/conus/instant_ptype/1740139200/1740916800-9lTiZapFexA.png
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/conus/kindex/1740139200/1740916800-KBjQjTI4aLQ.png

Granted I can't speak for what led him to the "10 day" forecast window comment, but what if he ends up being right? Do we then come back and give him credit, or do we simply ignore it and move on like most folks do when mets get it right? In other words, the people he's talking about don't have his experience or the degree in most cases so while that comment may appear to be a little hypocritical or egocentric on the surface perhaps, again personally I'm going to lean more on the guy with 40 plus years of experience in the field telling me next 10 days look fine over some guy named Ralph (weather enthusiast) with a little tornado icon on his X profile with 1k followers putting up the model you just did at day 9 telling me all hell "might" break loose??? I still think those are stark contrast in where one chooses to get their information and definitely worth pointing out.

[Stratton23]

JDawg512 absolutely not, its going to be an extremely close call in Austin, 1 or 2 degrees either way will make a big difference in Austin

[txtwister78]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GkVUYoIXcAAn08s?format=jpg&name=medium

Models don't bring as much moisture up that way as it's mostly confined to the coast and areas just inland. Doesn't mean you can't see some isolated spots but their forecast/advisory is based on where the highest precip amounts are favored to be which is still light overall but enough for the advisory criteria.

[Ralph's Weather]

Lindale is getting flurries out of the I20 band currently.

[TropicalTundra]

Temp stopped increasing for the day at 34, which is 3 below the forecasted high.

Hopefully means I might have the chance of getting sleet rather than freezing rain. Ugh

[cheezyWXguy]

Yep, agreed. There's a big difference between a weather discussion forum vs pro mets or anyone acting like a pro met on youtube or instagram. It's a big responsibility, once you declare yourself an "expert" in a public setting, considering the public planning, property and even sometimes life threatening conditions you can encounter with weather. I really like your point re: pro mets admitting mistakes, this is really lacking these days likely due to the threat of other sources the public can go to besides the NWS or TV mets. Personally, I trust people more when they can admit mistakes...we're all human after all (everyone will make mistakes) and weather forecasting is probably one of the most humbling professions out there. Admit you got the forecast wrong/aspects you learned from it/educate the public on why you missed the forecast and then move on!

Unless I'm missing some sort of sacrasm in Spann's post, he's part of the problem by declaring no significant weather events over the next 10 days. That's insane considering he's in the deep south in late Feb/Early March - this isn't mid summer under a massive heat dome!!!

Perhaps he shouldn't have gone that far out to make that call, but I also give him a bit of a pass in that the guy has been doing this for 40 years plus (so called old timer) back in the day when models weren't really a thing and mets had to rely more on pattern recognition and old school forecasting. So, to me it reads different from a guy like him. I'm not suggesting he's perfect, but I would give guys like him who have been in the field for a long time the benefit of the doubt.

Completely agree with your first point.

I know its just one Operational run but just look at this mornings GFS for day 9 in the deep south....that's a potential severe thunderstorm outbreak. The potential is clearly there...so it's not only not very smart or responsible, it's flat out hypocritical to declare something like that while taking jabs at other "social media" warriors!

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/conus/instant_ptype/1740139200/1740916800-9lTiZapFexA.png
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/conus/kindex/1740139200/1740916800-KBjQjTI4aLQ.png

Hard to call that a severe thunderstorm outbreak. Rain and some thunderstorms sure, but if taken verbatim there is 0 instability at 6am and the line is off the coast by afternoon. Regardless, he makes a point to distinguish between pattern recognition, which is obviously valuable at 10 days, and specific forecasts, which are not. It sounds to me like he’s calling out those on social media that are notorious for highly specific forecasts. I recall one that went viral last year early in the season calling for a cat5 hurricane to hit Miami like 3 months out on a specific date. I don’t feel like this post is trying to suppress amateur discussion on social media, but is instead calling out the bad faith actors who fear monger oddly specific long term forecasts solely to farm engagement.

[Quixotic]

Went back and looked at past winter threads: record is 501 in 2013/14 followed by 2009/10 at 471. Looks like 2024/25 is going to lock in at third place. Granted we have 8 more days but the models don’t look fun. :o(

[Texoz]

Went back and looked at past winter threads: record is 501 in 2013/14 followed by 2009/10 at 471. Looks like 2024/25 is going to lock in at third place. Granted we have 8 more days but the models don’t look fun. :o(

What do those numbers represent?

[Brent]

Went back and looked at past winter threads: record is 501 in 2013/14 followed by 2009/10 at 471. Looks like 2024/25 is going to lock in at third place. Granted we have 8 more days but the models don’t look fun. :o(

What do those numbers represent?

Number of pages aka how fun it was

Our TV met just excitedly did a video about warming up also I see zero rain

[Texas Snowman]

Went back and looked at past winter threads: record is 501 in 2013/14 followed by 2009/10 at 471. Looks like 2024/25 is going to lock in at third place. Granted we have 8 more days but the models don’t look fun. :o(

What do those numbers represent?

The “Texas Winter 2013/14” thread here finished with 501 pages of comments and holds the Storm2K record for most pages in a single winter season.

Next in second place is the “Texas Winter 2009/10” thread at 471 total pages.

And in third place will be this year’s “Texas Winter 2024/25” thread at 450+ pages. Barring a meteorological miracle, of course since the winter thread closes down next week on February 28th.

[Stratton23]

Wind chill in the upper 20’s here, absolutely perfect shorts and t shirt weather on the back porch!

[mmmmsnouts]

Perhaps he shouldn't have gone that far out to make that call, but I also give him a bit of a pass in that the guy has been doing this for 40 years plus (so called old timer) back in the day when models weren't really a thing and mets had to rely more on pattern recognition and old school forecasting. So, to me it reads different from a guy like him. I'm not suggesting he's perfect, but I would give guys like him who have been in the field for a long time the benefit of the doubt.

Completely agree with your first point.

I know its just one Operational run but just look at this mornings GFS for day 9 in the deep south....that's a potential severe thunderstorm outbreak. The potential is clearly there...so it's not only not very smart or responsible, it's flat out hypocritical to declare something like that while taking jabs at other "social media" warriors!

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/conus/instant_ptype/1740139200/1740916800-9lTiZapFexA.png
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/conus/kindex/1740139200/1740916800-KBjQjTI4aLQ.png

Hard to call that a severe thunderstorm outbreak. Rain and some thunderstorms sure, but if taken verbatim there is 0 instability at 6am and the line is off the coast by afternoon. Regardless, he makes a point to distinguish between pattern recognition, which is obviously valuable at 10 days, and specific forecasts, which are not. It sounds to me like he’s calling out those on social media that are notorious for highly specific forecasts. I recall one that went viral last year early in the season calling for a cat5 hurricane to hit Miami like 3 months out on a specific date. I don’t feel like this post is trying to suppress amateur discussion on social media, but is instead calling out the bad faith actors who fear monger oddly specific long term forecasts solely to farm engagement.

Seems like these longer range models are far more likely to depict an extreme weather event (Cat 5 in the Gulf, etc.) that doesn’t pan out, than they are to miss one that actually happens. This thread being a shining example.

Anyway, DFW snuck out a high of 33. I think that ended the 32 or below streak at 70 hours. Impressive for the latter part of February.

[HockeyTx82]

Wind chill in the upper 20’s here, absolutely perfect shorts and t shirt weather on the back porch!

You say that but walking out of work today it was 32° and it felt very nice out.

[orangeblood]

Another February day entered into the DFW record books….record low max high set today at 33F. That’s 4 official records broken during this outbreak.
3 straight Feb 19, 20, 21st record low maxes and Feb 20th record low min

[txtwister78]

NWS had added a few more counties to the WWA including Travis.

UPDATE...
Issued at 903 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

Have expanded the Winter Weather Advisory one tier of counties
northward into the Southern Hill Country from the initial advisory
issuance to include Bandera, Blanco, Kendall and Travis counties.
Drizzle has made steady progress northward and temperatures across
the listed counties above are trending cooler and closer to the
freezing mark already. Currently, Boerne is reporting 32 degrees
with a dew point that has climbed up to 27 degrees. Light icing on
elevated surfaces are expected with spotty slick spots developing
across bridges, overpasses, and any untreated roadways. Ice
accumulations from a few hundredths up to 1/10th of an inch are
possible.

[Texas Snowman]

I’m guessing that Portastorm isn’t awake right now…

 https://x.com/nwssanantonio/status/1893204935799644328

[utpmg]

Nice little glaze here over everything here in East Austin this morning. My front/back porch showing 32/33 degrees. Street looks wet but don't think it's too slick judging by some traffic. But I didn't walk out there.