Texas Winter 2024-2025

[orangeblood]

Forecast today is to stay below freezing north of I-20 with ample sunshine. That would be very impressive CAA still ongoing to achieve.

Feb 20th thru March - DFW's Coldest days in 125 plus years of record keeping: 1) March 11, 1948 25F/11F 2) Feb 24, 1960 28F/16F 3) March 1, 1922 29F/18F

Thinking today breaks into the #2 spot!

Yesterday 28/13F.

True, yesterday and today are likely #2 and #3 spots post Feb 2021 dates. Feb 16, 2021 was 18F/-2F

[txtwister78]

Watching temps closely over the next 12-24 hours. ARW probably a little too bullish here but all about temps as enough moisture will be around that could cause some travel issues especially on elevated bridges/overpasses.
 

[jasons2k]

Finally, back up to 33 at noon!

[South Texas Storms]

We're lucky widespread snow and ice didn't accompany this cold blast. ERCOT was a little close to having rolling outages this morning.

[txtwister78]

NWS acknowledging trends with cloud cover and therefore decreasing afternoon temps for western and central areas of SC TX. 12z NAM had highs in the mid to low 30's across this region today. with other models showing low 40's where sunshine was supposed to be more prevalent.

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1209 PM CST Thu Feb 20 2025

Earlier updates were made to the forecast to increase cloud cover and
decrease temperatures across the western and central portions of the
region. Clouds remain stubborn out west along the Rio Grande and
most models are struggling to resolve these clouds. Leaned toward the
NAM12 in the short term with respect to cloud cover.

[Texas Snowman]

Just once…

 https://x.com/shanemuckey/status/1892637845849809243

[Portastorm]

Coldest morning this late in the season since 1943, and 3rd coldest All-Time (March 3 1943 10F, March 11 1948 11F)

Austin Mabry set their coldest late season low max high yesterday of 28F All-Time as well, and just tied their coldest low min of 18F set in 1948

Considering the Urbanization since the 1940's, this is arguably the greatest late season Texas Arctic Outbreak since records have been kept!!!

In terms of magnitude it's probably top 3 coldest for the last stretch of winter to end winter. Those 1940s dates in March are pretty wild 25/11 for a day. We love to equate snow/ice to cold but that's not always the case, cold is a separate matter. The snowy stretches are much warmer 40s/20s type days. If you were looking for a cold end to winter, this blast is about as much as you will get against climo.

Yep, no doubt. Once you begin a deep dive into the record books, your perspective changes drastically....You start to a have a greater understanding/appreciation of what makes a weather event "rare" and also, recalibration for expectations from your local climo

South Texas Storms already alluded to this but what I find most remarkable about this cold snap is that these very low temperatures were achieved with no snow cover. At least for nearly all of us in Texas.

[Portastorm]

Watching temps closely over the next 12-24 hours. ARW probably a little too bullish here but all about temps as enough moisture will be around that could cause some travel issues especially on elevated bridges/overpasses.
 
https://m2o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrwnssl/2025022012/048/zr_acc-imp.us_sc.png

https://m2o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrwarw/2025022012/048/zr_acc-imp.us_sc.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/hrrr/austin/frzr_total/1740052800/1740225600-AJp1AdLgInQ.png

Yes! I am growing increasingly concerned about freezing drizzle tomorrow into Saturday morning having a more significant impact than we previously thought. NWS Austin/San Antonio will be doing a webinar this afternoon on the threat and they usually put those webinars on their You Tube page by late afternoon.

[Cpv17]

Just once…

 https://x.com/shanemuckey/status/1892637845849809243

In my dreams

[Ntxw]

Widespread snow and ice makes a big difference. If we had that everything would easily be 10F colder than what we saw. We saw a prime example of this in SE Texas and southern LA in January where they were 5-10F colder than to the north and areas outside of the snow field same latitude. 2021 was a prime example of similar cold air mass, comparable HP, but much stronger lower latitude systems.

This round the TPV formed a little stronger in the upper midwest coiling the cold closer to it.



Back in 2021 it was weaker and further away allowing the southern branch to be dominant and flood gates opened with the southern storms.

[orangeblood]

In terms of magnitude it's probably top 3 coldest for the last stretch of winter to end winter. Those 1940s dates in March are pretty wild 25/11 for a day. We love to equate snow/ice to cold but that's not always the case, cold is a separate matter. The snowy stretches are much warmer 40s/20s type days. If you were looking for a cold end to winter, this blast is about as much as you will get against climo.

Yep, no doubt. Once you begin a deep dive into the record books, your perspective changes drastically....You start to a have a greater understanding/appreciation of what makes a weather event "rare" and also, recalibration for expectations from your local climo

South Texas Storms already alluded to this but what I find most remarkable about this cold snap is that these very low temperatures were achieved with no snow cover. At least for nearly all of us in Texas.

Yep, it would've competed with some of Feb 2021's coldest days if it was accompanied by snow/ice cover. Pretty definitive climate trend forming during late winter seasons over the past two decades.

[Cpv17]

Widespread snow and ice makes a big difference. If we had that everything would easily be 10F colder than what we saw. We saw a prime example of this in SE Texas and southern LA in January where they were 5-10F colder than to the north and areas outside of the snow field same latitude. 2021 was a prime example of similar cold air mass, comparable HP, but much stronger lower lower latitude systems.

This round the TPV formed a little stronger in the upper midwest coiling the cold closer to it.
https://i.imgur.com/UxFiXuO.gif


Back in 2021 it was weaker and further away allowing the southern branch to be dominant and flood gates opened with the southern storms.
https://i.imgur.com/fELiPij.gif

Yep, had 18°F back in January. Only 25°F this time.

[Stratton23]

34 here and holding, likely another forecasted high bust here ( 42) you love to see it, this some true texas weather!

[orangeblood]

Sprawling 1048HP anchored over central Kansas on top of snowpack will yield south central US temps like these...... at Noon on Feb 20th!!!! Incredible

CMC and Euro ENS picked up on this HP strength from 9-10 days out, were still pretty volatile on temps at that range but seeing this type of HP strength that far out is impressive!

[gpsnowman]

Sprawling 1048HP anchored over central Kansas on top of snowpack will yield south central US temps like these...... at Noon on Feb 20th!!!! Incredible

CMC and Euro ENS picked up on this HP strength from 9-10 days out, were still pretty volatile on temps at that range but seeing this type of HP strength that far out is impressive!

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/conus/mslp/1740052800/1740063600-lUROXncmzrs.png
https://images.weatherbell.com/analysis/rtma-anl/scentus/t2m_f/1740074400-sSEJFsMCDWE.png

Mid 20s currently with bright sun. Love these sunny days in winter when we stay below freezing. Just goes to show how strong this air mass is. Gorgeous weather today.

[gpsnowman]

In Nebraska news it's a balmy sun filled 8 degrees in Omaha today. That's nice.

[gpsnowman]

IF I were to ever move to a colder city with tolerable summers and cold winters, Omaha is on the list. Highly unlikely but I can dream. KC is another option but summers in Missouri can be nasty.

[txtwister78]

Just above freezing but well below what most models had today due to sunshine that never occurred. Need to see how low we drop tonight but ironically cloud cover should also help to limit that a bit as well however all about freezing line going into Friday.

[rwfromkansas]

IF I were to ever move to a colder city with tolerable summers and cold winters, Omaha is on the list. Highly unlikely but I can dream. KC is another option but summers in Missouri can be nasty.

KC humidity can be pretty oppressive with the Ozark influence.

Well, on to the next....hope we can get something in one final round here. Nice flurry surprise this time at least.

[jasons2k]

Overrunning clouds approaching Houston metro quickly from the southwest now. Should arrive around sunset and keep temps from dropping too much tonight.