Texas Winter 2010-2011

[wxman57]

12Z Euro does have 2m temps down to 25 in the Dallas area on the 26th, but the precip is long-gone by the time temps drop into the 30s. Looks like just a run-of-the mill late February front. Upper flow more west to east than north-south.

Still looking for that first 80 deg day of 2011 here so I can bike without winter weather gear...

Amarillo Wxman! A week ago they were way colder than you below 0 and now they are warmer!!! Funny how weather works

Current Amarillo weather: Fair and Breezy 80 °F(27 °C)

86 in Childress now, 87 in Laredo.

[Ntxw]

89 in Fort Stockton, I bet someone out in the Pecos region will hit 90! What a turnaround.

Looks like our pockets will be feeling the freezes of this winter in terms of food prices. If this doesn't raise eyebrows that global cold will be more expensive than global warm I don't know what does!

[Metalicwx220]

12Z Euro does have 2m temps down to 25 in the Dallas area on the 26th, but the precip is long-gone by the time temps drop into the 30s. Looks like just a run-of-the mill late February front. Upper flow more west to east than north-south.

Still looking for that first 80 deg day of 2011 here so I can bike without winter weather gear...

Amarillo Wxman! A week ago they were way colder than you below 0 and now they are warmer!!! Funny how weather works

Current Amarillo weather: Fair and Breezy 80 °F(27 °C)

86 in Childress now, 87 in Laredo.

Same way with the Dakotas.

[Metalicwx220]

Joe Bastardi says a Wild Spring Ahead with Late-Season Snow, Tornadoes. He also says something about wintry threats lasting into april north of I-70 and says this spring will be wilder than last spring........How wild was last spring LOl!

[Metalicwx220]

And here is this........However, Bastardi is still warning that the threat of one more prolonged period of cold late in the season is a concern into April.

He says this may be a "mini version" of the extreme cold that gripped Texas the first two weeks of February.

[Ntxw]

Can always count on the 18z GFS to tease us. Most of the second half run seems interesting, still looking like the period after the 24-26th is going to be the beginnings of some changes.

[Turtle]

00Z GFS showing wide spread .1-.5" of snow north of I-20 in Texas. Winter is not over yet folks!

[wxman57]

00Z GFS showing wide spread .1-.5" of snow north of I-20 in Texas. Winter is not over yet folks!

Look for the 1" or greater line for the better shot of snow. That's up in OK. 00Z Euro is warmer and 06Z GFS has no snow down south in OK or TX. Don't look for anything as far south as the Dallas area. I think winter is over for that area.

[txagwxman]

GFS kinda interesting Dallas day 10...not much precip though.

[wxman57]

Yes, no precip in the cold air in the Dallas area. GFS indicates a bit of snow for the TX/OK panhandles and littler or no precip post-frontal farther south. Just 0.01" precip in Dallas as the temperature drops into the 50 deg range before it ends. This does not have the look of winter weather in Dallas.



From the twisterdata.com site, here's the snowfall accumulation forecast for that frontal passage. Look for the green 1" or greater for the more realistic boundary of snow/rain (assuming the GFS forecast is correct):

[Ntxw]

GFS kinda interesting Dallas day 10...not much precip though.

That would be the time period in question. Things going in transition after the 24th ish. Snow or no snow winter is going to give a visit. It might be be too soon to throwing the winter cancel word around. This winter has thrown lots of people for a loop (Texas winter was supposed to end in December ) for forecasters to call for it to end

Not quite positive, but a different tune than not too long ago, less negative. Probably signals for a quick cold shot. MJO is a bit less favorable for warmth.



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[orangeblood]

With the MJO forecast to swing back around into octaves 8 & 1, the end of the month is looking very favorable for more fun and games.

12Z Euro is looking quite interesting as well. Strong Cold front moves through around the 26-27th time frame with a trough digging into the desert southwest. GFS ensembles are starting to show the same scenario

[Ntxw]

Still a lot of cold air in Canada and forecasted to stay that way. Just a matter of buckling the jet stream in the right pattern to surge it south. Last week source region was a bit warmer (especially western Canada).



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Keep an eye on the second storm digging after the one this week off the Pac NW. It could be the game changer many has been buzzing about. Here is the 18z GFS depiction of it.



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[srainhoutx]

Models are struggling with the transitions of the NAO and AO. I also noticed that we are back to a -AO as of today...

[Ntxw]

0z GFS is spitting out 1048mb highs, ridging way up into Alaska and beyond with a strong 5h system digging out west with very cold air poised to come down from Canada in the medium range.



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[gpsnowman]

0z GFS is spitting out 1048mb highs, ridging way up into Alaska and beyond with a strong 5h system digging out west with very cold air poised to come down from Canada in the medium range.

http://img5.imageshack.us/img5/6923/gfspcp174m.gif

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What does that mean for North Texas, Ntwx?

[Ntxw]

What does that mean for North Texas, Ntwx?

It means the potential cold snap late month is still on track. It's not a given though, that is still longer range, but I wouldn't get used to this warmth for too long.

[somethingfunny]

The NWS is going to perform SKYWARN Spotter Training TOMORROW here in Garland. It's at the Granville Arts Center near the DART terminus station at Fifth Street and Walnut Street downtown. Basic classes are from 9 AM to 12 noon, and advanced classes are from 1:30 PM to 4 PM. It's free.

I've always wanted to get to one of these, and I'll be there tomorrow. Along with the National Weather Service, there will also be numerous meteorologists from FOX 4 and probably other stations that I don't watch as often also. I thought some people who follow this thread might like to go too, or might like to catch another spotter training class in the future. I'm not sure exactly what to expect when I go, I just know that I'm not missing this again like I did last year.

Here's the full schedule for classes around North Texas. There are plenty of other opportunities coming for Denton, Fort Worth, Colleyville, Rockwall, Greenville, etc: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/skywarnsch.php?file=sptrsch

[TexasStorm]

You can take the temps at the end of the month and add about +5 to them. With no snow pack to the north of us anything that comes down is going to get modified.

[Ntxw]

You can take the temps at the end of the month and add about +5 to them. With no snow pack to the north of us anything that comes down is going to get modified.

That's what the big storms within the 7 day period is for . Lost snowcover from the Dakotas/Nebraska/Kansas will likely return by then. Also with a lot of warm air around, could be time to focus in on severe weather with air masses clashing.

If you take a look at JB's new long ranger video today, he's already beginning to change his tune on winter cancel for the south. SSW is starting to play havoc for a lot of forecasters and MJO coming alive. The coldest air is currently over Siberia, but if you take a look at the ECMWF long range seems it will be swinging across Alaska/North Pole into NA next week.