Texas Winter 2020-2021

[bubba hotep]

Looks like some big changes coming to the 12z GFS. Now to see if it makes any difference at the surface.

It's always a fools errand to try and extrapolate early changes in a model run out into the future but this time it looks pretty good. GFS now very close to a major N. TX winter storm.

[Haris]

GFS is too warm for my liking, ugh

[cheezyWXguy]

That is run in the right direction for dfw. Will future runs and other models follow?

[Ralph's Weather]

If only the air was a touch colder that the surface NE TX would be seeing snow tonight. Sub-freezing down to below 850mb with precip falling. Surface looks to be in the low 40s though so just a tad too warm for flakes to reach the ground.

[Ntxw]

That is run in the right direction for dfw. Will future runs and other models follow?

Looks a lot like what the UKMET was doing last night.

[Cerlin]

UKMET, Euro, and GFS all trending northward (as predicted) the last few runs, but will it sustain? GFS is actually slightly worrisome, just because it has a really thin band of snow with 80% of the system being rain south of DFW. The last thing we want is the GFS to signal the system being too warm, however, I’ve noticed the GFS has a tendency to overcorrect some of its cold bias within 5 days. It’ll be interesting to see if this northward trend is emphasized or if this is just a fluke run.

[Toadyfrog]

Haven't been on the boards in a couple years. You people rock! NWS mentions the "S" word for CentTx. I''ll wait for the Thursday runs before I breakout the snow chains.

Its time to start talking about the potential for that four-letter
"S" word again. GEFS mean 850mb temps (and surface temps) continue
to trend colder Sunday, and for example MEX guidance for maxT at SAT
has cooled 22 degrees between the 00Z 1/4 and 00Z 1/6 runs, bringing
it more in line with EC guidance. Precipitation may begin Sunday
morning before sunrise but could hold off until closer to mid-
morning per the slower EC soln. While much of the area will see
mainly rain, for locations across the Hill Country, the continued
colder trend is beginning to increase confidence in some frozen
precipitation (primarily snow) being possible. GFS soundings near
Fredericksburg show the entire column below freezing for a few hours
before surface temperatures warm during the day. While some
deterministic runs have even brought snow potential as far south as
San Antonio, at this lead time it`s too far out to have the
confidence to include snow mentions there. But with EPS ensemble
probabilities for 1" accumulations now increasing to ~40% over
portions of the Hill Country, adding at least a slight chance
mention for snow to mix in is a defensible option despite GEFS
probabilities being ~20% lower. Further refinement will be needed
over the coming days, like addressing potential snowfall amounts (if
any) as well as whether it will snow at all along and east of the
northern portions of the I-35 corridor.

[bubba hotep]

That is run in the right direction for dfw. Will future runs and other models follow?

Looks a lot like what the UKMET was doing last night.

CMC also takes a step in the right direction.

[Ntxw]

GFS-P and CMC are all trending very good for DFW.

The bullseye curse?

[Haris]

lock this in

[Haris]

UKMET 12z has shifted S again.

[jaguars_22]

What does it show for Victoria ? Ukmet?

[Ntxw]

UKMET 12z has shifted S again.

It's south of I-20 now compared to 0z but close. All very good trends for all of us IMO. One thing is the wetter trend on all the guidance is very hopeful.

[Ntxw]

What does it show for Victoria ? Ukmet?

UKmet has snowband south of DFW and North of Austin.

[EnnisTx]

You folks that live South of Hillsboro need to move North and stop trying to wish our snow down your way!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Not a good 12z for SE Tx. As soon as i open my mouth to friends!

[gpsnowman]

Awesome trends this morning. Needless to say our emotions will be toyed with the next few days. Looking forward to it actually, always so fun. I do believe some place is going to get a Winter Storm Warning out of this. Where will it be???? Many places hopefully.

[ztshanklin]

Delkus and Finfrock haven't even thought about bringing it up yet here in DFW. I guess when they do this far out they get the finger wag by the twitter warriors.

[gpsnowman]

Delkus and Finfrock haven't even thought about bringing it up yet here in DFW. I guess when they do this far out they get the finger wag by the twitter warriors.

Fox4 Evan Andrews is the only local to even mention a wintry mix that I've seen. It's been in his forecast for a couple days now including this morning. Whenever this sucker comes ashore I would think the local outlooks will change.

[Cpv17]

Not a good 12z for SE Tx. As soon as i open my mouth to friends!

I’ve learned not to do that anymore. At least not this far out. Maybe if it’s within 2-3 days.