Texas Winter 2010-2011

[South Texas Storms]

I'm thinking it may be time to "call it" for a winter weather event south of Killeen/Temple for the 2010-11 season. Sure there will be some hard freezes as there always is during March. Possibly a snow/ice threat for DFW remains ... but for my area, I'm thinking we're probably done.

The remainder of February looks pretty nice and the teleconnections do not support any drastic plunges temperature-wise. I'm really thinking this might be it.

I agree Porta, I think our chances for snow/ice south of Waco are about done for this winter. Maybe next winter we will all see a few inches of snow in south Texas!

[cheezyWXguy]

I'm thinking it may be time to "call it" for a winter weather event south of Killeen/Temple for the 2010-11 season. Sure there will be some hard freezes as there always is during March. Possibly a snow/ice threat for DFW remains ... but for my area, I'm thinking we're probably done.

The remainder of February looks pretty nice and the teleconnections do not support any drastic plunges temperature-wise. I'm really thinking this might be it.

I agree Porta, I think our chances for snow/ice south of Waco are about done for this winter. Maybe next winter we will all see a few inches of snow in south Texas!

I hope so! Ill be attending Texas A&M starting this fall, so Ill be watching

[txagwxman]

I just had some light flurries here in Tomball....albeit very light.

[txagwxman]

I'm thinking it may be time to "call it" for a winter weather event south of Killeen/Temple for the 2010-11 season. Sure there will be some hard freezes as there always is during March. Possibly a snow/ice threat for DFW remains ... but for my area, I'm thinking we're probably done.

The remainder of February looks pretty nice and the teleconnections do not support any drastic plunges temperature-wise. I'm really thinking this might be it.

I agree Porta, I think our chances for snow/ice south of Waco are about done for this winter. Maybe next winter we will all see a few inches of snow in south Texas!

You guys give up too easy...April 2007 (I think) it snowed 2" in Temple on Easter.

[vbhoutex]

I just had some light flurries here in Tomball....albeit very light.

Having the same here in the Spring Branch area.

[South Texas Storms]

I hope so! Ill be attending Texas A&M starting this fall, so Ill be watching

Cool you'll be joining me here! We get less snow than Dallas just to warn ya.

[tugreenie]

Looks to me that an upper air disturbance sliding south out of the Rockies is trying to stir up a low south of Texas.....am I just wishing too hard?

[LaBreeze]

Looks to me that an upper air disturbance sliding south out of the Rockies is trying to stir up a low south of Texas.....am I just wishing too hard?

I'm afraid so, I think.

[BigB0882]

Wouldn't that be a good thing? It would be the only hope we have of seeing some snow, if it kicks up more moisture our way...

[Turtle]

Well when I went outside, I still saw snowflakes coming down. Still, total accum. was 0. The ground and grass were just wet.

[wall_cloud]

Regarding the models, it was actually quite the opposite. Most of us were buying into the models, which all were predicting at least greater than 0.25 inches of precip across the metroplex , and most were even predicting at least 0.40 inches. But they didn't even come close to verifying: For example, DFW GFS forecast last night- 0.41 inches, actual was 0.15 inches. Huge bust all the way around!!!

One of the lessons I learned from this event: For example, say you have a certain amount of precip forecast for a location. Most of us on here were thinking that a faster cold front would mean more of that precip becoming frozen. But it never crossed my mind that a faster cold front could mean that the mid and upper levels could dry out faster than forecast and would then cut into the QPF. And that is exactly what happened.

So many factors have to come together in order to get winter weather in Texas and the timing of those factors have to be almost perfect. That's is why I think that winter weather forecasting in Texas is one of the toughest jobs in the country and we were really fortunate to have the winter that we had.

I don't know if I can stress enough that the QPF on these models is really not worth putting that much stock into. The resolution and precipitation physics do not support an extremely detailed amount. I used it generally to find areas of concentrated higher amounts but don't ever look at the numbers themselves.

[txagwxman]

-27F in Bartlesville, OK...this ties the all-time record low for the state!

[jasons2k]

23F here this morning -- not 17 or 18 but still cold enough for me!

[JenBayles]

grumbling: 22 degrees in west Houston; semi-frozen pipes; roaring fire in the fireplace... this is SE TEXAS?!

[txagwxman]

23F here this morning -- not 17 or 18 but still cold enough for me!

Clouds.

Next week 80F.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

25F at my station in Sugar Land, clouds ruined a chance at 20 again. Honestly, n ot that mad though! Now lets get these clouds out of here so we can warm up

[wxman57]

Checking the GFS, CMC and Euro, I don't see any further cold intrusions into Texas for at least the next 10 days. 70s and maybe near 80 for much of the state next week, and possibly 90 for the Valley.

[txagwxman]

Checking the GFS, CMC and Euro, I don't see any further cold intrusions into Texas for at least the next 10 days. 70s and maybe near 80 for much of the state next week, and possibly 90 for the Valley.

Bring it...but I will miss this shot...

[Tejas89]

-27F in Bartlesville, OK...this ties the all-time record low for the state

It dipped another degree to break the record. Here's an interesting tidbit comparing the temps in OK this a.m. to the North Pole and typically frigid locales.

http://www.kjrh.com/dpp/news/local_news/bartlesville-ties-oklahoma-state-record-for-low-temperature,-tulsa-ties-city-record



DFW broke the daily record set in 1981 this morning, by 1 degree. 15. The North Pole was 16 this morning!!

[txagwxman]

-27F in Bartlesville, OK...this ties the all-time record low for the state

It dipped another degree to break the record. Here's an interesting tidbit comparing the temps in OK this a.m. to the North Pole and typically frigid locales.

http://www.kjrh.com/dpp/news/local_news/bartlesville-ties-oklahoma-state-record-for-low-temperature,-tulsa-ties-city-record



DFW broke the daily record set in 1981 this morning, by 1 degree. 15.

That is how you get the cold down here...has to be warm to our north...in the 1983 shot it was record warm in Alaska.