Texas Winter 2017-2018

[Brent]

12z GFS with an epic winter storm for portions of NW Texas and Oklahoma, just misses DFW to the NW.

tell me more of this.....

[orangeblood]

12z GFS with an epic winter storm for portions of NW Texas and Oklahoma, just misses DFW to the NW.

Yep, the storm is still hanging around...what's interesting is that, due to the blocking over the Arctic Circle, the HP forecast to head into the central plains late next week has it's origins over Greenland. I'd venture to guess that airmass would undercut the overrunning STJ quite significantly, more than is currently forecast at this time. We'll get the timing right at some point, won't we ? At least, that's what history tells us

[Yukon Cornelius]

19”. That’ll be the day.

[bubba hotep]

12z GFS with an epic winter storm for portions of NW Texas and Oklahoma, just misses DFW to the NW.

Yep, the storm is still hanging around...what's interesting is that, due to the blocking over the Arctic Circle, the HP forecast to head into the central plains late next week has it's origins over Greenland. I'd venture to guess that airmass would undercut the overrunning STJ quite significantly, more than is currently forecast at this time. We'll get the timing right at some point, won't we ? At least, that's what history tells us

It looks like about 1.5" of rain +/- across DFW during the cold phase of the storm. If we locked everything in on that run and only allowed surface temps to correct, given the warm bias the GFS has had this season, that probably becomes a significant winter storm for DFW. However, we will see a different solution with every run as the models try to figure out the cutoff.

[orangeblood]

Euro starting to show some enhanced precip on Sunday morning.....

[bubba hotep]

Euro is a tad wetter, vort digs slightly more and is little stronger. It wouldn't take much to get back to what the 18z NAM showed yesterday. Euro mostly keeps DFW safe temp wise during precipitation on Sunday.

ETA: It raises qpf from trace to 0.10" across DFW to 0.10-0.30". A 1/3 of an inch with NAM temps would certainly cause issues. I wonder when FWD will hoist the Winter Wx Advisory?

[starsfan65]

Euro is a tad wetter, vort digs slightly more and is little stronger. It wouldn't take much to get back to what the 18z NAM showed yesterday. Euro mostly keeps DFW safe temp wise during precipitation on Sunday.

How safe?

[bubba hotep]

Euro is a tad wetter, vort digs slightly more and is little stronger. It wouldn't take much to get back to what the 18z NAM showed yesterday. Euro mostly keeps DFW safe temp wise during precipitation on Sunday.

How safe?

32-35f

[starsfan65]

Euro is a tad wetter, vort digs slightly more and is little stronger. It wouldn't take much to get back to what the 18z NAM showed yesterday. Euro mostly keeps DFW safe temp wise during precipitation on Sunday.

How safe?

32-35f

What time the NAM model gives out it's forecast?

[bubba hotep]

Euro has 80s next Friday for the same areas that the GFS has a giant winter storm. This highlights how tricky next week will be as the models try to figure out what to do with the SoCal cutoff.

[DFW Stormwatcher]

Euro is a tad wetter, vort digs slightly more and is little stronger. It wouldn't take much to get back to what the 18z NAM showed yesterday. Euro mostly keeps DFW safe temp wise during precipitation on Sunday.

ETA: It raises qpf from trace to 0.10" across DFW to 0.10-0.30". A 1/3 of an inch with NAM temps would certainly cause issues. I wonder when FWD will hoist the Winter Wx Advisory?

It’s strange how Fwd has been so free with the wwa’s This year. There was a time you wouldn’t see a advisory until snow was already falling. I have a good feeling about this event this weekend, we’ll see if my bones are right.

[orangeblood]

EPS now has a mean of 0.10 to 0.25 inch QPF across a wide area of North Texas forecast to be at or below freezing from Sunday Midnight to Noon....probably time for the FTW office to get a little more aggressive with their wording/forecast

[Brent]

Nam looks pretty dry in DFW just isolated ice and mostly SE of Dallas

[weatherdude1108]

They're teasing us.


A frontal system will bring a chance for precipitation and colder air Saturday night. As the shallow layer of cold air moves into our northeast area there will be a chance for a mix of freezing rain and rain. Chances for freezing rain will be in the northern Hill Country. If it does occur, the wintry precipitation would begin around 4 AM. Temperatures will rise above freezing by late morning Sunday. Patchy icing is possible on elevated surfaces including bridges and overpasses.

[Ntxw]

RGEM and 18z GFS has a decent band of sleet and freezing rain from SW to NE crossing DFW

[Ntxw]

To continue the 12z doing,

This is a good way to put together ingredients for a baja low winter storm. We've had some great ones (the biggest snowfalls) with such set up. Tall pacific ridge, strong baja low, incoming cold air fed by cold HP. If verified, and cold trends. Even if no snow, it would still yield a high qpf event



For once be right.

[bubba hotep]

RGEM and 18z GFS has a decent band of sleet and freezing rain from SW to NE crossing DFW

This was picked up by the 12z Euro as well. Kind of surprising to see the 18z NAMs not respond but maybe at 00z. FWD will probably hoist WWA across DFW tonight.

[downsouthman1]

RGEM and 18z GFS has a decent band of sleet and freezing rain from SW to NE crossing DFW

This was picked up by the 12z Euro as well. Kind of surprising to see the 18z NAMs not respond but maybe at 00z. FWD will probably hoist WWA across DFW tonight.

I think they'll wait till precip is falling this time.

[bubba hotep]

18z GFS is close to a massive ice storm for DFW when you factor in the fact that it has been 5 to 10 degrees too warm during precipitation events in the 5 - 10 day period this winter.

I also like that the GFS is bringing the cutoff out. The Euro still appears to have a slow bias when it comes to moving systems out of the SW and that is probably playing havoc with how it's handling this system.

[Ntxw]

18z GFS is close to a massive ice storm for DFW when you factor in the fact that it has been 5 to 10 degrees too warm during precipitation events in the 5 - 10 day period this winter.

I also like that the GFS is bringing the cutoff out. The Euro still appears to have a slow bias when it comes to moving systems out of the SW and that is probably playing havoc with how it's handling this system.

The 500mb synoptics is very good. We do need the cutoff to come out, and I do think it will because we do not have an overpowering -PNA. HP could trend a little stronger and cold a little better. This is an ideal set up to start for a big one.

The pattern is moving towards a very Nino-esque configuration.