Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Stratton23]

The setup still looks interesting to me next week, even with a +PNA, there does appear to be some sort of storm system on the table moving into texas, how it interacts with the arctic air and or how far it digs/ tracks is up in the air is still unknown, but think we have one more winter weather event before true miserable weather sets in

[Ntxw]

Euro is delayed, some data issues.

[Wntrwthrguy]

The run came in too cold and now they are trying to compensate for wxman’s fortified wall

[Stratton23]

Whats the deal with the Euro being down, big server crash ? Did Wxman57 Hijack the Euro?

[gpsnowman]

https://x.com/TrackerSacker/status/1889 ... 75/photo/1
Found this on the X-verse. Interesting.

[Stratton23]

High risk ( level 3/3) of hazardous cold temperatures issued all the way into central texas by this afternoon’s CPC update

[Ntxw]

High risk ( level 3/3) of hazardous cold temperatures issued all the way into central texas by this afternoon’s CPC update

Late February normals are higher, so to get the kind of cold we typically see in January probably boosts their confidence.

[wxman22]

[Ntxw]

[HockeyTx82]

https://i.ibb.co/SDc7NvxG/IMG-0241.png

What does this mean in terms of actual temperatures and is there any Frozen precipitation in the mix too?

[snownado]

https://i.ibb.co/SDc7NvxG/IMG-0241.png

What does this mean in terms of actual temperatures and is there any Frozen precipitation in the mix too?

That map is no better or worse than the CPC probability maps that Evan Andrews always rages about, lol...

[DFW Stormwatcher]

I don't see it right now for three reasons.

1. Pattern continues to be too progressive with just enough pacific air mixing in further south to moderate temps so nothing earth shattering holds as a result. That's your calendar effect.

2. Teleconnections while favorable for some cold, EPO is hovering around neutral to slightly positive but PNA going positive next wk (especially with Euro) and that would direct core of the cold further east with time should that verify.

3. As we move further into February our temp norms continue to rise the further south you go into Texas so it's going to take something big (1050 high into plains etc) to deliver the type of cold that the ICON is indicating. Too far out to believe it. Heck it's colder than the CMC so yeah haha.

I think we're likely to see this roller-coaster type pattern continue but nothing that says dam bursting cold. Pattern may stay active into March but by then you're talking about cool vs cold.

Sir, I must say, you’re mighty good at killing a buzz lol

Lol! Just trying to keep everything into perspective with what all the players on the field indicate as opposed to looking at a model run here or there. Better question to ask is does it make sense with what all the moving pieces within a given pattern...but If I'm wrong I'll be right here to say so.

But hey if you don't like more 80's in February it's not a bad pattern. I just think for areas further south into TX our fun ended in January. Panhandle and areas from DFW north typically have a little more runway later into February than we do.

Things like this were said prior to the February 2021 event too so there is always a chance. Winter was cancelled before that event if I remember right.

[Ntxw]

Guess we won't be getting 12z euro suite run today. By the time it's working 0z assimilation will have been new data anyway.

[txtwister78]

If I'm not mistaken the CPC designation of "hazardous temps" is basically just another way of saying minimal temps (not maximum) are at risk of freezing to subfreezing for the outlined area. So, in other words could see one more freeze down to I-10 next week...CPC saying odds are highest from Central Texas points north but moderate odds across SC TX.

That alone doesn't mean we're going to see major cold or winter precip on those days across the board.

[Stratton23]

txtwister78 Im assuming hazardous would mean anything below 32 degrees which does look like a good bet for a good chunk of the state, probably widespread mid 20’s for lows, highs look like upper 30’s to low 40’s for a couple of days next week, so i guess that could also be considered hazardous given our normal high is in the upper 60’s to low 70’s right about now, as for the precipitation part, noaa does favor above normal precipitation across the state next week, we will see about that

[wxman22]

The threshold for hazardous temps must be more than just 32 degrees up here at least.If that was the case we would have had hazardous temps outlooks most of winter here this year. As we have received officially 34 freezes so far this season.

[txtwister78]

Sir, I must say, you’re mighty good at killing a buzz lol

Lol! Just trying to keep everything into perspective with what all the players on the field indicate as opposed to looking at a model run here or there. Better question to ask is does it make sense with what all the moving pieces within a given pattern...but If I'm wrong I'll be right here to say so.

But hey if you don't like more 80's in February it's not a bad pattern. I just think for areas further south into TX our fun ended in January. Panhandle and areas from DFW north typically have a little more runway later into February than we do.

Things like this were said prior to the February 2021 event too so there is always a chance. Winter was cancelled before that event if I remember right.

Yeah couple of things regarding this comment. Feb 2021 was incredibly different in the lead up, and those comments certainly weren't stated on here by me at that time (I was bullish in the leadup to that event on this forum). As I and others have repeatedly stated, Feb 2021 was a once in a lifetime benchmark weather event. Nobody is talking about that type of cold or pattern next week as being remotely possible for Texas. The models aren't the issue like they were in 2021 so it's not like you can't see some cold coming.

The comment above that I made yesterday doesn't mean we can't get cold for a day relative to averages. We still can and will for example tomorrow and again over the weekend, but these are largely quick shots of cold that don't hold long, and we moderate quickly thereafter. I think that type of pattern will continue into next week but right now I don't see anything that screams major (alarm bells ringing) cold and certainly nothing like 2021. That's not happening (you can book that one now lol). I'll save you the time of watching models showing anything like that over the next few days. Have a good one.

[txtwister78]

The threshold for hazardous temps must be more than just 32 degrees up here at least.If that was the case we would have had hazardous temps outlooks most of winter here this year. As we have received officially 34 freezes so far this season.

32 degrees or lower may be normal in January or even late December for many areas but later in February for certain regions it's not and thus the designation. If you put a freeze down into the lower RGV for example this late into the season, that could be hazardous for crops/farming etc. CPC own website defines it as "risk of below normal temps with minimum temp of freezing to subfreezing".

[Stratton23]

The February 2021 cold was an event that we likely wont see again for many years or again in our life time, even as cold biased as i am, its pretty difficult to get that cold down here in middle february, that being said, we could still see lows in the upper teens ( depending on where in the state you are ) to low 20’s and low 30’s for the state for lows and highs generally in the mid 30’s to low 40’s, we will see about the wintry precipitation chances next week which are definitely in the cards with the severely - AO rising, meaning somewhere across the deep south ( texas) their will likely be a storm system forming

[gpsnowman]

Wind is really picking up and the temp is almost down to the upper 30s. Going to be a cold night.