Texas Winter 2022-2023

[txwxwatcher]

I notice major differences in the 500mb flow at 240 hrs. Euro drives the Arctic air east across southern Canada. GFS has an upper low much farther south, so it's colder for TX. Meanwhile, the source region remains relatively warm. Note that JB only cares about cold in Pennsylvania when he says "extreme cold coming". He's talking about the NE U.S. Historically, Christmas week has potential for very cold air coming south, followed by the January thaw. I think my wall may well hold, keeping Houston in the 70s to 80 for Christmas.

Don't get too excited until there is actually some cold air up north. By then, maybe there will be some sort of model agreement in the pattern. Maybe by next weekend.

Are you just hoping for 70s to 80 for Christmas in Houston, or are you actually suggesting that is what is likely?

He’s just trolling the board at this point. It’s why no one responded.

I get a chuckle out of it.

That’s too bad. I come here for good information, and for the most part, have found it here.

[Sambucol]

12z GFS has a nasty Ice Storm for Eastern Texas, Southern Arkansas, Northern Louisiana, and Central Mississippi on the 21st-22nd.

After that, here comes the Arctic Cannon!

Any speculation on temps in Southeast Texas?

[Iceresistance]

12z GFS has a nasty Ice Storm for Eastern Texas, Southern Arkansas, Northern Louisiana, and Central Mississippi on the 21st-22nd.

After that, here comes the Arctic Cannon!

Any speculation on temps in Southeast Texas?

The 12z GFS has temperatures close to freezing, but not below freezing in SE and Coastal Texas.

[Brent]

Good grief the GFS is cold

[Iceresistance]

Good grief the GFS is cold

If 12z GFS is crazy, then I do NOT want to know what the 18z could do!

[cheezyWXguy]

Are you just hoping for 70s to 80 for Christmas in Houston, or are you actually suggesting that is what is likely?

He’s just trolling the board at this point. It’s why no one responded.

I get a chuckle out of it.

That’s too bad. I come here for good information, and for the most part, have found it here.

It is good information, nothing he said is incorrect. We are still in long term speculation mode, even if the signs are starting to mount.

Texas is, by default, in a warmer climate with less winter weather than most of the rest of the country. If you have to put out a forecast that clients depend on, which he does, it is generally wise to stick with the status quo until there’s high confidence that an anomalous scenario will play out, because of sheer number of things that have to go right in order for it to do so. Those of us on here who aren’t so on-the-hook are more free to let our speculations run, and we do because it’s what most of us want to see. He’s not a troll and isn’t misinforming, but knowing the dynamic on this board, he does like to poke us in good fun while providing solid insight.

[Sambucol]

12z GFS has a nasty Ice Storm for Eastern Texas, Southern Arkansas, Northern Louisiana, and Central Mississippi on the 21st-22nd.

After that, here comes the Arctic Cannon!

Any speculation on temps in Southeast Texas?

The 12z GFS has temperatures close to freezing, but not below freezing in SE and Coastal Texas.

Thank you. We are hoping for below freezing here!

[Iceresistance]

Does anyone have the 12z CMCE-Mean? I've heard it's one of the coldest means ever seen recently!

[txtwister78]

I'll say this both the GFS ENS and Canadian ENS have trended colder compared to the previous run next weekend/Monday timeframe (17th-19th). Something to watch as we move further into next week with the operationals as we fall under that 5 day time window.

The Canadian ENS beyond that is just insane in the lead up to Christmas. No denying what's brewing. Just a waiting game at this point. Despite its "cold bias", that's one hell of a run for an ensemble and it may very well be on to something if we're talking about that much arctic air unloading into the US down the southern plains.

Edit: The 12z GFS ENS aren't that far behind.

[rwfromkansas]

Just hope it’s not a dry cold. Next weekend does tend to push more SE on the GFS than south but later blasts appear more south into TX.

My Kansas Christmas is the 30th/31st so if it even snows decent there it should still be on the ground due to this possible Dec. 2000-type cold up there (it was bitterly cold). Getting snow here would just be icing.

[Iceresistance]

The Euro has just started to run, will be like the insane 0z run and be similar to the 12z GFS?

[Iceresistance]

Never mind for anyone on the 12z CMCE, I have found it on a different forum.

Days 6-16

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/12z-CMCE-Days-6-16.jpg

Days 9-16

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/12z-CMCE-Days-9-16.jpg

[HockeyTx82]

I am just going to sit back and watch. I've got my popcorn ready. Either this is going to happen or Wxman57's wall will hold and the letdown will be palatable.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

His troll was saying it would be 70s-80s at Christmas.

Yes, he’s trying to get under people’s skin with that when no ensemble member shows that. Anywhere.

I still see a path for a Christmas week to be 5-10 below normal but that path is shrinking with all the models ensembles getting on board with a bigger blast.

[Cpv17]

Never mind for anyone on the 12z CMCE, I have found it on a different forum.

Days 6-16
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/12z-CMCE-Days-6-16.jpg
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/12z-CMCE-Days-6-16.jpg

Days 9-16
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/12z-CMCE-Days-9-16.jpg
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/12z-CMCE-Days-9-16.jpg

For an ensemble this is impressive but I can’t remember what the ensembles looked like in Feb 21 at this same stage.

[Iceresistance]

12z Euro has a 1064+ mb HP over the Arctic Ocean

[Brent]

Just hope it’s not a dry cold. Next weekend does tend to push more SE on the GFS than south but later blasts appear more south into TX.

My Kansas Christmas is the 30th/31st so if it even snows decent there it should still be on the ground due to this possible Dec. 2000-type cold up there (it was bitterly cold). Getting snow here would just be icing.

Yeah I'm a little concerned about dry cold here but then again just because it's modeled south of us doesn't mean it stays that way and also if this has any semblance to 2021 it snowed plenty here so we'll see. That would be one thing though... Even a light event might stay around for days if it's that cold

[Iceresistance]

1069 mb HP over the Arctic Ocean on the 12z Euro!?

[Cpv17]

1069 mb HP over the Arctic Ocean on the 12z Euro!?

Bring it on!!

Also, looks like some snow for DFW next weekend on the 12z Euro from a coastal low?

[ThunderSleetDreams]

1069 mb HP over the Arctic Ocean on the 12z Euro!?

Bring it on!!

Also, looks like some snow for DFW next weekend on the 12z Euro from a coastal low?

That’s my hope. A Dallas to Shreveport snow blanket to set the stage for Christmas. Plus I’m in Longview next weekend