Texas Winter 2012-2013

[Rgv20]

What have you people been doing all morning?! I can't believe there aren't all kinds of posts about the 12z GFS run!

I was out of pocket or else I would have. Lucy is teeing up the football, that's for sure.

Hint: It features not one but TWO winter storms for Texas during Christmas Week!

Well the 12zGFS forecast snow for my area just before Christmas!! Can you help me up Porta? lol

[Portastorm]

Oh Rgv, you know how it goes, the GFS will probably lift our hopes as high as the stratosphere and then let us crash down into depression with another zonal flow for Christmas (anti-jinx on). But maybe ... just maybe ... we can get relief such as what our friend cctxhurricanewatcher suggests above!

Besides ... isn't it about time for another Rio Grande Valley Snow Miracle?!

[Tireman4]

Oh my. The fur will fly as we get closer to the Christmas week....woo hooo...

[Patriot12]

What have you people been doing all morning?! I can't believe there aren't all kinds of posts about the 12z GFS run!

I was out of pocket or else I would have. Lucy is teeing up the football, that's for sure.

Hint: It features not one but TWO winter storms for Texas during Christmas Week!

Well the 12zGFS forecast snow for my area just before Christmas!! Can you help me up Porta? lol

Do you have a link to that?

[horselattitudesfarm]

A question. Now, I am not as smart as the sharpest object in a tool shed, but did we not have a wet fall/ winter? If yes ( I swear I remember something falling out of the sky...LOL), did not the models forcast a dry period for that forecast timeframe and it proved the models wrong? What I am saying, with Mother Nature, I think we still are trying to figure things out. My mother just died recently due to complications of a stroke that occured in 2002. Now, we know a ton about the brain, but ( as the Neo Nurse confirmed), there still so much we do not know. We can do wonders on small strokes, but massive, we still are aways from it. What I am saying is, I suppose anything can happen. Look at the snow DFW area got this past week. Maybe I know nothing...LOL

There's no question that the accuracy of any forecast beyond the 3-5 day period is suspect ... the further out one goes beyond that period, the less accurate the forecast is more likely to be ... unless the atmosphere is in a static state with an unchanging pattern.

You folks in SE Texas had "normal" precipitation for the Sep-Nov period this year but everyone to your west and northwest was drier and warmer than normal. So, in essence, those longer range forecasts did verify for this fall. One major forecast which received a lot of attention (and speculation) which did NOT verify was for ENSO. We are in neutral conditions but the forecast for this time period from last summer was for a weak-to-moderate El Nino. That obviously didn't happen.

An atmospheric scientist I know summarized it up very well for me on explaining weather vs climate. He used the analogy of waves on the beach. He said it is almost impossible to predict how high each succeeding wave will be (daily weather), but it is easy to predict the tide the waves ride in on (climate cycles). Much larger factors ,i.e. the forces modifying the tide, are easier to 'see' and predict than small chaotic forces that create each wave. If the tide is rising, then most likely the waves will get higher because they are 'riding' in on, or are modulated by the tide. Ocean cycles like the PNA, AO, etc. are easier to predict and measure and modulate our daily weather over longer cycles. He explained that is why it is easier to predict climate change vs predicting that we will have a record high or low in 3 days for the same reasons. Anyway, hope that helps someone.

[Portastorm]

What have you people been doing all morning?! I can't believe there aren't all kinds of posts about the 12z GFS run!

I was out of pocket or else I would have. Lucy is teeing up the football, that's for sure.

Hint: It features not one but TWO winter storms for Texas during Christmas Week!

Well the 12zGFS forecast snow for my area just before Christmas!! Can you help me up Porta? lol

Do you have a link to that?

Start at about hour 240:

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=12%2F12%2F2012+12UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=10m_wnd_precip&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

[horselattitudesfarm]

Will it make 2nd?



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[TeamPlayersBlue]

Can someone explain to me why it was 19F in Waco this morning and only 33F in DFW? I know sometimes with dense high pressures due to some phenomena, it is colder in southern areas than the northern areas. For instance, RGV said he was 33F this morning and i only reached 34F. How can this sort of thing occur cetaris perabus? (All other variables held equal.)

[Ntxw]

Can someone explain to me why it was 19F in Waco this morning and only 33F in DFW? I know sometimes with dense high pressures due to some phenomena, it is colder in southern areas than the northern areas. For instance, RGV said he was 33F this morning and i only reached 34F. How can this sort of thing occur cetaris perabus? (All other variables held equal.)

Waco is consistently colder than DFW (even colder than the Red River counties in some cases)on clear radiation nights due to the measurement location being near a river valley most likely as DFW is on higher ground. For instance, I believe Waco recorded it's first freeze this year October while DFW did not until Dec. Similar cases are found between Austin Mabry and Bergstrom as well as Conroe in southeast Texas (lows usually beats Huntsville). So in short, measurement location can sometimes cause extreme variance in microclimates.

Edit: Conroe not the woodlands

As to why, well cold air sinks, warm air rises. And higher ground is effected more by wind. River valleys/lakes are ideal locations for cold to pool and stick.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Well said, thanks!

[Portastorm]

"Microweather" as I call it amazes me. Like many of you I bet, I have experienced some weird temperature differences within the confines of my own city. For example, I live in what is considered the Barton Creek Watershed area just to the west-southwest of downtown Austin. On evenings when radiational cooling is predominant, I have witnessed temperature drops of 5-7 degrees within five minutes of driving time and several miles as I've left Mopac (a highway in Austin) and drove into my neighborhood.

[Ntxw]

Unfortunately these microclimates do not help much when looking at snow! Just ask Wacowx . I've noticed the W/SW suburbs of Houston tends to see more frozen precip than the northern areas, anybody there think that's true?

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Unfortunately these microclimates do not help much when looking at snow! Just ask Wacowx . I've noticed the W/SW suburbs of Houston tends to see more frozen precip than the northern areas, anybody there think that's true?

Anywhere north of Sugar land tends to receive less frozen precip in events, but area south and southwest typically receive more frozen precip due to the amount of moisture and no urban area effect. During the last two snow events, actually three events if you include the Christmas snow, areas north of say beltway 8 have hardly received any measurable snow. The Christmas event was centered a 100 miles SW of Houston because the air was certainly cold enough, but the amount of snow they received in the other events was hardly measurable.

[Ntxw]

That's some very interesting stuff! ^

Since Portastorm has been adamant we cheer up for the Holidays and post LaLaLand miracles, PWC special

[Patriot12]

Translation of the map please? Is it good news for cold-lovers?

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Translation of the map please? Is it good news for cold-lovers?

WXman 57 will be sending his Christmas cards from this Post Office.

[baytownwx]

I'm a major lurker and self proclaimed weather enthusiast. I thoroughly enjoy reading through all the posts....great job! I thought I'd add after watching Khou 11 news in Houston, David Paul thinks its going to be a cold Christmas here. He went out on a limb and showed a graphic where he showed Christmas eve with a HIGH of 42F and Christmas day at 45.......as always he stressed its still a ways off, but it has caught my attention! Now only if we can get some precip with that

[orangeblood]

It looks like the GFS operational is finally piecing together what its ensembles have been showing for the past couple of days. After the big storm on the east coast early next week moves off to the northeast, the polar vortex splits and finally sets up shop over Central Canada (it's been quite awhile since that has occurred). With the southern stream still alive, this should make for a very interesting holiday season!


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[vbhoutex]

Translation of the map please? Is it good news for cold-lovers?

It is pretty good news for most of Texas as far as cold goes. Some areas of Central and North TX could get some type of frozen precip out of it, but I sure wouldn't hang any bets on that yet. Looks like SE TX gets left out in the cool/cold again. Someone needs to adjust the storm tracks so we aren't watching from afar.

[Agua]

:uarrow:

"Microweather" as I call it amazes me. Like many of you I bet, I have experienced some weird temperature differences within the confines of my own city. For example, I live in what is considered the Barton Creek Watershed area just to the west-southwest of downtown Austin. On evenings when radiational cooling is predominant, I have witnessed temperature drops of 5-7 degrees within five minutes of driving time and several miles as I've left Mopac (a highway in Austin) and drove into my neighborhood.

Is there a term for these type locations? I've got a house in the country that is a distance of 4 miles from a small town and during periods where there is high radiational cooling, you can expect a difference of 3-5 degrees cooler after sundown at the country home as compared to the edge of town. Its not just some occasional thing either, it is damned near always cooler there at night. I've just referred to it as a "cold sink" since it is in a river valley at the bottom of a range of very small hills (150' topo relief).