2008-09 Texas Winter Weather Thread

[Ed Mahmoud]

Only takes one day of cold air, even a shallow cold air mass diving South, or a cool and dry but not frigid airmass with a strong and cold upper low moving overhead ala December 10th to get a quick, and for Texas, impressive Winter event.

I recall snow in the DFW area a year or two back around Easter. I suspect that was an earlier than usual (late March) Easter, but the Western Christian churches celebrate Easter the Sunday after the first full moon after the Equinox, or, by definition, Easter is always in Spring.


(That usually lines them up with the middle of the Hebrew month of Nisan, ie, Pasach (and hence the root of the non-pagan word Paschal) but not always).

Google April 7, 2007.

Wow, like the very rare but not unprecedented borderline Cat 3 that hit Texas in October 1949. That was just last century. One of the 19th century Indianola, TX hurricanes was in October.

[jinftl]

One of the pitfalls of message boards in general is that someone's tone or intentions can be misconstrued. I have no personal crusade to shoot down your posts, or any posts. If I have overstepped my boundaries by entering into a Texas thred, i do apologize. To me, weather...no matter where it is taking place...is interesting. I don't have to live in the region to still find a forecast, model run, etc...interesting.

If you re-read my post, I don't believe I have gone with the view that winter weather and cold is not possible in Texas going forward this month. Again, i do apologize if my tone was misinterpreted, but I do not retract anything I said. I don't mean any harm but throwing out the idea that climatology, which this time of year in Texas means....and let's be real....avg temps are going up, the sun angle is increasing, etc. If that adds another dimension or context against which to look at model runs, JB predictions, or anything else....than I will continue to do that. We can't call this an open forum when ideas and views...especially when they are being backed up by data which includes the notion of climatology this time of year..are viewed as offensive if they don't point to 'snow'. Again, I am here to challenge and learn about weather, not about the posters. If I had said that there was no way the forecast won't be colder and snowier than you had mentioned, would i be typing this right now?

I will end with this....to the admins or anyone else who may have the 'scoop'....if threads like this one or the florida one are intended for those who live in the area, please let me know and I will stick to my own turf. I mean no harm if I have overstepped my geographic bounds....but i am weather dork by nature, not just a florida weather dork.

Like you say, dialogue and discussion are what makes this site different than going to a NWS page and reading a forecast.

Any forecasts beyond 5 or 7 days is speculation to some extent, but NWS Austin/San Antonio certainly paints a picture of a mild week ahead...


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2009/
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. A COOL SURFACE RIDGE WILL
SETTLE OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES.

The long-term pattern shift that is coming is spring...before long the above normal temps texas has been experiencing more often than not as of late will just become 'normal'. That said, winter/spring transitioning type storms can bring a spectacular range of variety depending if you are in the cold or warm sector of the storm. So a quick snow or ice event is not impossible in northern areas of the southern plains and south-central...but a prolonged period of arctic airmass conditions is pretty close to being done for the year in the sunbelt. Any cold will be short-lived.

JB in his video blog today says he likes the chances of snow in Amarillo and Dallas before the month is over. The pattern switch is coming folks and not just because JB says so. The GFS and Euro show it and have consistently shown it for days.

Oh well, this last half of February is going to be our last chance so it might as well be a good one!

I think I have had enough ... I'm at a loss to understand why you apparently feel the need to continually enter this thread and bust my chops? Since December, the only time you seem to post is when I (or someone else) post about the possibility of winter weather impacting Texas. Your posts can usually be summarized as "sorry, you're wrong, you will have no winter events." OK, that's fine. If you want to debate whether or not there is a pattern change coming, then what is your evidence? I supported my post with model run evidence and comments from a well-known national meteorologist. Today (Sunday), the GFS and European show that Texas MAY NOT experience much in terms of winter weather the latter half of the month and I can readily admit. Yesterday, however, they did. So again, I am relying on data. How about you?

Furthermore, I never posted that we would see a "prolonged period of arctic airmass." I said PATTERN CHANGE. And indeed, the southern jet is getting more active and we are now seeing a pattern change. I also indicated that the window for winter weather was rapidly closing but that we did have a few weeks in play. I'm well aware of the seasonal reality.

Debate is healthy and welcomed. I don't always agree with Ed Mahmoud, for example, but he always supports his posts with data/model runs/evidence. And, accordingly, I'll admit when I was wrong and move along. I've actually learned a lot from Ed and enjoy his posts. Again ... healthy debate.

I would ask jinftl that you would do the same for the edification of all of us. Why is the modeling wrong? Why is JB wrong? Why are the very talented professional meteorologists on the Eastern board wrong? They've all indicated a pattern switch and change to stormier and colder for most of the US for the last half of February into March. Support your assertion please.

[Portastorm]

I'll make this my final post on the subject as I don't want to hijack the thread and/or bore everyone else.

Perhaps I would have a different take on your posts if you were a little more proactive in the discussion. You seem to have a knack for showing up when someone (whether it is me or someone else) is enthusastic about a more extreme weather event in Texas. If my perception is inaccurate then you have my apologies. But when one's most frequent contribution to a discussion is the essence of saying "I doubt it" when a poster thinks something more extreme might happen, it is difficult for me, at least, to find any altruistic merit in it.

As for whether or not this is a Texas-poster-only thread ... frankly, I don't care if someone posts in this thread from Zimbabwe or the Aleutians or Mexico City. I just ask for mutual respect, intellectual honesty, and a passion for weather.

So you are saying pay attention to climatology. That is what you are using to support your contention. I hear you. And you very well may be right.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I post in the Florida threads, having lived in Orlando, FL 32814 for almost about a year in 1983 and 1984.

No need to live in a certain place.

[jasons2k]

Just to clarify, there is no geographic limitation as to who can post in threads. We encourage input from all of our members willing to contribute. At the same time everyone should remember that there can be local nuances in the weather for a given locale. I think that goes without saying.
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As a reminder, if you do disagree with another poster on their analysis, please do so with some model support (or at least some form of hard data) and do so respectfully. I do not think anyone has crossed the line here in this thread, I'm just tossing this out as a reminder.
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Ed, I think both 2006 and 2007 saw Easter snow in North Texas. It was pretty unusual.
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From a meteorological standpoing, Spring consists of March, April, & May. The calendar seasons based on the solstice/equinox don't exactly mirror what happens in the weather. But that's a whole different discussion with more info here:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Season

Meteorological
Meteorological seasons are reckoned by temperature, with summer being the hottest quarter of the year and winter the coldest quarter of the year.

Using this reckoning, the Roman calendar began the year and the spring season on the first of March, with each season occupying three months. This reckoning is also used in Denmark, the former USSR, and Australia. In the modern United Kingdom there are no hard and fast rules about seasons, and informally many people use this reckoning.

So, in meteorology for the Northern hemisphere: spring begins on 1 March, summer on 1 June, autumn on 1 September, and winter on 1 December.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Actually saw a few mostly light showers, with one or two embedded 15 second periods of heavier rain requiring turning the wipers up to about 3/4 speed.

.07 inches at IAH, 0.14 inches as Hooks, averages to about one tenth at my house between the two.

At four inches behind, would need about 40 days of that to catch up, except we'd still be behing on the rest of February and March.

[gboudx]

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Ed, I think both 2006 and 2007 saw Easter snow in North Texas. It was pretty unusual.

2007 for sure. My son had a soccer game on Easter Saturday. During the game it started snowing. Amazingly, the kids continued playing the game rather than chase snowflakes.

If it happened in 2006, I don't remember.

[Ed Mahmoud]

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Ed, I think both 2006 and 2007 saw Easter snow in North Texas. It was pretty unusual.

2007 for sure. My son had a soccer game on Easter Saturday. During the game it started snowing. Amazingly, the kids continued playing the game rather than chase snowflakes.

If it happened in 2006, I don't remember.

I got my son's Cub Scout meeting tomorrow night during all the DFW action.

I guess I'll catch up reading the severe thread. Thank goodness for whoever it is who has GR3 radar and an imageshack account!

[gboudx]

Yeah Ed, I'm not at all looking forward to tomorrow night. I hate severe weather.

[Portastorm]

I'm very pleased to report that my part of AUS received nearly a half-inch of rainfall between midnight and 10 a.m. this morning. I think I heard the earth gurgling it up as quickly as it fell.

And for the record, jinftl and Portastorm have resumed all diplomatic relations. Peace in our time.

[srainhoutx]

I'm very pleased to report that my part of AUS received nearly a half-inch of rainfall between midnight and 10 a.m. this morning. I think I heard the earth gurgling it up as quickly as it fell.

And for the record, jinftl and Portastorm have resumed all diplomatic relations. Peace in our time.

Hallelujah

[iorange55]

Yikes, theres already a special weather statement out for this severe weather. I hate tornadoes, oh well nothing you can do about it. I have my camera ready just in case something happens here, if a tornado hits your house might as well get it on tape, right?


Part of the special weather statement from the NWS

THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY AFTER 2 PM...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE. THE
MOST LIKELY AREA FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE JUST WEST OF THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR AND EASTWARD. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE TO THE
EAST NORTHEAST AROUND 50 MPH AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH...AND A FEW TORNADOES.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
EVENING HOURS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS ALONG THE DRYLINE. THESE
STORMS WILL LIKELY ORGANIZE IN A STRONG SQUALL LINE THAT WILL MOVE
EAST AT 50 TO 60 MPH. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH WILL
BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS LINE...BUT EMBEDDED BRIEF TORNADOES
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

WHILE SEVERE WEATHER MAY OCCUR ANYWHERE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TODAY...
CONDITIONS ARE MOST FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES ALONG AND EAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR...WITH INCREASING CHANCES ACROSS NORTHEAST
TEXAS. ANY TORNADOES THAT DEVELOP MAY BE WRAPPED IN RAIN AND
DIFFICULT TO SEE.

[Portastorm]

Talking about severe weather in a winter weather thread pretty much says it all, doesn't it?

I see nothing on the horizon that suggests temps getting below normal for us in south central Texas in the next 2-3 weeks. Pattern change, schmattern change!! I'd say it's about time to post the "winter=cancel" note.

Spring is upon us already and I can only hope that La Nina breaks down and we get a more active southern jet to give us some rain. Otherwise, we're going to see some amazingly scary drought conditions this summer.

[gboudx]

I'd say it's about time to post the "winter=cancel" note.

Do that, and you'll get some posters telling you how winter weather can happen in March and April.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The Weather Channel mentioned yesterday that over 95% of
Texas is in a drought, hopefully a strong low pressure area
with a monsoon southwest influence can pull in from the
Pacific and bring heavy tropical pacific moisture to the
Texas Desert (95% of Texas)--> unfortunately la nina
has cooled the equatorial pacific...meaning a lack of a
pacific equatorial tropical moisture inflow- and a bad
drought across texas...

As a side note, the severe lack of snow in the Tampa Bay Area does tend to bias my perception and judgement to the idea
of a much hotter climate than many people living
in places that get snow and frigid weather could imagine...
That said it would be nice to get a cool front...along with
some rain just so there is a little fun in the weather

With temperatures the past week for lows not getting
much below 60...and highs expected in the upper 70s-low 80s
for the next 7 days...it is pretty easy to imagine a warm planet.
The same can't be said for people I know living near
International Falls, who have reported temperatures to
-50*F this winter and wind chills of -60*F (unofficially)-
many in the midwest say it is the coldest winter in decades...
Some extreme temperature variation I'd say.

[Texas Snowman]

Portastorm,

I feel your pain up here in N. Texas, but remember that it is Feb. 10th. We had two big snows in early March last year (North Texas, at least). So, while the models don't seem to be any help at the moment, that can change and winter isn't completely over just yet.

Don't put your kicking shoes away!

Tx Snowman

[JenBayles]

Anyone watching that nice squall line west of I-35?

[southerngale]

I'd say it's about time to post the "winter=cancel" note.

Then by all means, let Ed do it!

[JenBayles]

I'd say it's about time to post the "winter=cancel" note.

Then by all means, let Ed do it!

I triple-dog dare ya!

[Ed Mahmoud]

I'd say it's about time to post the "winter=cancel" note.

Then by all means, let Ed do it!

I triple-dog dare ya!

Um, Ike messed it up a bit, but at the end of August, I had 10 day Euro forecasts for several days in a row and quite a few 15 day GFS forecasts that said the Westerlies had come to stay over the Northern Gulf.

It has snowed at Easter, in April, 2 years ago. A miracle. Can't fight a miracle.