Florida winter thread 2010-11

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Extremeweatherguy
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Re: Florida winter thread 2010-11

#81 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Mon Dec 13, 2010 9:35 am

IF Orlando can manage to reach its currently forecasted low of 23-24F tonight, then this will certainly rank among the top cold spells in recent years. While the daytime high temperatures (upper 40s) are not in the extreme category compared to past events, a low temperature in the lower 20s definitely would be. Since 1944, Orlando has officially fallen below 25F less than 15 times total, with 0 of those times being within the last decade. The all-time record low for the city (since 1944) is 19F set in January 1985.


The morning AFD out of Melbourne highlights the rarity of this event:

TONIGHT...TEMP GUIDANCE REMAINS QUITE COLD OVERNIGHT WITH COOP MOS
AND THE ENSEMBLE MEAN EASILY SUGGESTING HARD FREEZE CONDITIONS FOR
THE AREA WITH RARE LOWER 20S OVER THE NORTH ZONES ROUGHLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-4 AND OUTSIDE THE ORLANDO METRO AREA...AND MID 20S SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE FOUR TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND THE MAINLAND AREAS OF THE
TREASURE COAST...THUS A HARD FREEZE WARNING WILL BE ISSUED WITH THE
MORNING PACKAGE FOR ALL OF EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA.

WHAT MAKES THIS EVENT RATHER UNIQUE IS THE LACK OF WIND DECOUPLING
THROUGH DAYBREAK TUE AND THIS CAN BE ESSENTIALLY BE CLASSIFIED AS
AN ADVECTIVE HARD FREEZE (STATISTICALLY SEEN WELL LESS THAN ONCE
PER YEAR...ESPECIALLY ON THIS SCOPE OF AREAL COVERAGE). EXTREME
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AREA COUPLED WITH SUSTAINED WIND WILL LIKELY
REQUIRE A WIND CHILL WARNING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FOR APPARENT
TEMPERATURES LOWER THAN 20F COUPLED WITH WINDS 10 MPH OR GREATER.

THIS WILL BE AN ECONOMICALLY DAMAGING FREEZE EVENT THE NEXT TWO
NIGHTS.
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#82 Postby psyclone » Mon Dec 13, 2010 10:18 am

the advective nature of the freeze works against the east coast of the state since the wind will be from the northwest, advecting frigid air over the peninsula right to the beaches. i suspect the west coast from tampa bay southward will do ok close to the water. my point and click low tonight is 30. if i go straight across the peninsula to central brevard county (at a comparable location from the coast) the low forecast is 25.
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Re: Florida winter thread 2010-11

#83 Postby PTPatrick » Mon Dec 13, 2010 10:30 am

You guys in south florida should start wintering in Denver, its going to be colder there for the next 2 days. I didnt even wear a jacket this morning. :sun:
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#84 Postby jdray » Mon Dec 13, 2010 10:39 am

Might make it to 40F today, luckily the clouds came in last night and kept us above 30F.

Of course its currently 36F with 15-20mph winds with 30-40mph gusts.

6 Advisories:
Hard Freeze Warning
Red Flag Warning
Wind Chill Advisory
Lake Wind Advisory
Hard Freeze Watch
Fire Weather Watch

Is this Florida or some state along the great lakes?
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#85 Postby northjaxpro » Mon Dec 13, 2010 11:07 am

Yeah, 30.7 degrees was the low temp this morning registered on the thermometer at my location. Currently 37.8 degrees at 11:00 a.m. Some of the low level wrap around clouds that blew into the area this morning have now dissipated and the sun is out now, but brisk NW winds are producing wnd chill temps in the mid-upper 20s right now. Definitely a bitter cold day in NE FL. We will be lucky just to warm into the low 40s this afternoon.

Hard freeze tonight with upper teens possible in the colder interior areas of NE FL. The arctic air is funneling straight down and its possible some areas around Orlando and areas over Central and South Central peninsula may drop to the mid 20s by sunrise tomorrow morning.
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Re: Florida winter thread 2010-11

#86 Postby jhpigott » Mon Dec 13, 2010 11:30 am

Craziness. My point forecast low temp for North Palm Beach (about 1 mile from the intracoastal and 5-10 miles north of West Palm Beach) tomorrow morning is 26F

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... tType=text

The advisory package is saying we should hit 30-32 by 11pm
A STRONG SOUTHWARD SURGE OF A VERY COLD AND DRY ARCTIC AIR MASS
WILL OCCUR ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA OVERNIGHT. AIR TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO THE 30 TO 32 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE WARNING AREA BY 11
PM TONIGHT...AND WILL PERSIST IN THIS RANGE THROUGH MID-MORNING
TUESDAY.
http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.p ... ze+Warning
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#87 Postby NDG » Mon Dec 13, 2010 1:54 pm

With winds staying up and heights rising a little bit tomorrow morning I am hoping that the MOS forecast would be a bust, that we would see upper 20s versus low 20s as forecasted. But I just want to re-iterate that it is only my hope, I am still taking precautions that temps will dip into the low 20s tomorrow morning as forecasted.
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Re: Florida winter thread 2010-11

#88 Postby jhpigott » Mon Dec 13, 2010 2:05 pm

It looks like my NWS office is pretty convinced the cold is coming. They just bumped down my point forecase low tonight from 26F to 25F. I have a hard to believing this will verify, but if it does it is going to be real bad news for the farmers around here.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... tType=text
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#89 Postby Scorpion » Mon Dec 13, 2010 2:20 pm

Wouldn't the forecast lows break the all time record for West Palm?
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Re: Florida winter thread 2010-11

#90 Postby jhpigott » Mon Dec 13, 2010 3:02 pm

All time low for WPB is 27F

going to be close
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Re: Florida winter thread 2010-11

#91 Postby wxman57 » Mon Dec 13, 2010 4:03 pm

jhpigott wrote:All time low for WPB is 27F

going to be close


The one "problem" will be the strong NW flow in the lower levels tonight. Winds of 20-30 kts near the surface will prevent much radiative cooling.
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Re: Florida winter thread 2010-11

#92 Postby jhpigott » Mon Dec 13, 2010 4:11 pm

wxman - having little to no meterological background, why then do you think the NWS continues to lower forecast temps right up to the event?
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Re: Florida winter thread 2010-11

#93 Postby AdamFirst » Mon Dec 13, 2010 4:22 pm

It's going to be even colder tomorrow night with radiational cooling.

28F low tonight, 26F low Tuesday night. 35F Wednesday night.
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#94 Postby gatorcane » Mon Dec 13, 2010 6:47 pm

Hi temperatures along the SE Coast of Florida were in the lower 60s today, at least 5-7 degrees warmer than forecast. I was outside today. It felt cold but not as cold as I expected in the early afternoon timeframe.

I am just hoping that it indicates the freezes expected tonight will not happen. With winds blowing in the 20-25mph gusts range albeit NW, I think we still see mixing that keeps most of SE Florida above freezing. It's tomorrow night that could be the interesting night, with light winds and good decoupling.

If temps get down to what NWS inidicates they will, most of the tropical vegetation that has finally made a comeback from last year's freeze will be totally killed off.

26F for West Palm Beach tonight just a mile or two from the intercoastal waterway? That is insane.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... tType=text
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#95 Postby psyclone » Mon Dec 13, 2010 7:11 pm

it's gonna be interesting to see if this forecast works out...some of these temps are extreme and i need to see it to believe it. my gut tells me we don't get as cold as the current forecast calls for. that said, i'm sure glad i'm not a farmer.
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Re: Florida winter thread 2010-11

#96 Postby scottw » Mon Dec 13, 2010 7:22 pm

PBpost says:

Lows will be in the upper 20s as far south as Boca Raton.
And a brisk breeze across the region could make for a wind chill as low as 13 in West Palm Beach.

"This not a radiation freeze where the winds go calm and the warmth radiates into space," Rothfuss said from the weather service's Miami office. "This is an 'advection' freeze; very cold air coming in."
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#97 Postby frigidice77 » Mon Dec 13, 2010 8:05 pm

This will probably be the last of the cold air advections. Time to go to the beach for christmas. Lol!
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#98 Postby NDG » Mon Dec 13, 2010 8:09 pm

With W to NW winds across central to southern FL dewpoints have not dropped yet, still in the 20s & 30s.
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Re:

#99 Postby srainhoutx » Mon Dec 13, 2010 8:10 pm

frigidice77 wrote:This will probably be the last of the cold air advections. Time to go to the beach for christmas. Lol!


What is this based on?
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Re: Florida winter thread 2010-11

#100 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Mon Dec 13, 2010 8:22 pm

frigidice77 wrote:This will probably be the last of the cold air advections. Time to go to the beach for christmas. Lol!
You better hope the 18z GFS doesn't verify..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_288l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_288l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_288l.gif

Or else your beach visit Christmas afternoon might be a chilly one. lol
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