Texas Winter 2010-2011

[Longhornmaniac8]

I am heading to Austin on Thursday for the Texas-Texas A&M game, which starts at 7 PM on Thursday (Hook Em Horns)...what should I expect as far as temps go that evening. Weather Underground currently calls for a high of 63, which flies in the face of what most of yall are saying regarding the weather.

Any info would be much appreciated...thanks...

First, and most importantly, Hook'em! Pretty bad season, but a victory over the (favored) Aggies would be at least marginal consolation. Here's to hoping Greg Davis is gone, either way!

I do not know much about the models, I'm just generally interested in weather. From what it sounds like, there is some difficulty in predicting exactly when the front will push across the area. Seems like there is a fair degree of uncertainty in the 24 or so hour window between late Wed and late Thurs. It seems *likely* that it will have arrived by kickoff, but how soon prior is still up for debate.

Either way, I think it will be cold!

[srainhoutx]

Good Morning Folks. So where's this Arctic Air that all the chatter has been about? Let's look up in Canada. IR Imagery is showing the dense Arctic Air spilling S now into Western Canada...





A storm system is taking shape near British Colombia heading S along the Pacific NW and will swing into the Intermountain West today into tomorrow bringing the cold Arctic lobe S. Temps are expected to be in the -20's along with wind-chill indices in the -30 to -40 range in Great Fall, MT. Now that is some mighty cold air. When will that modified air get here? I suspect that when we wake up on Thanksgiving morning that cold air will already be well into TX nearing the northern reaches of SE TX late morning/mid day and off the Coast by early evening. What will be the old shock to the system will be the rapid drop in temps. When we have been in the 80’s for high temps and upper 60’s for lows, a 20+ degree drop in an hour or so will likely occur. While this was never expected to be the coldest air we’ve seen in TX, it is a pretty big change. Heck, we haven’t seen a blue norther like this in a while. So enjoy the warmth of the early week and the weather change there after. Oh, and for those attending the UT/Texas A&M game in Austin on turkey day, bring that warm coat and be ready for a chilly light rain and gusty northerly winds.

[srainhoutx]

For what it's worth, the 12Z GFS appears to be a bit faster with the front by about 6 hours. Also there is some post frontal moisture on this run as well with a shortwave that is lagging back to our W .

[HockeyTx82]

Where is everyone, is this the calm before the storm?

Just was curious to see what the lastest is.

[natlib]

Doesn't look too exciting outside of a bug cool down. San Angelo forecast is for 50 degree high on Thanksgiving and 20 degree low, then it warms right back up.

[Ntxw]

May not be record breaking cold, but sure will sting after the warm, muggy days we've had and will have up until the passage! Feels more like early October than late November right now.

NWS FW

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 81. South wind between 15 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.

Wednesday Night: A 40 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 48. South wind 10 to 15 mph becoming west northwest. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph.

Thanksgiving Day: A 40 percent chance of showers before noon. Mostly cloudy, with a temperature falling to around 40 by noon. North northwest wind between 15 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

That's a 40 +- degree difference!

Edit: Tonight's Euro continues the trend of an interesting week, next week.

[srainhoutx]

So it is the GFS versus the Euro/NAM (6+ hours slower) solution regarding the timing if the Arctic Front. Watch them all be wrong.

HPC:

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
324 AM EST TUE NOV 23 2010

VALID 12Z TUE NOV 23 2010 - 12Z THU NOV 25 2010

QUITE THE EVENT IS UNFOLDING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. WITH A
VARIETY OF WINTER PRECIPITATION-RELATED WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. THE MOST HAZARDOUS EFFECTS SHOULD REMAIN
CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS ALTHOUGH THE EXTREMELY COLD
AIR IN PLACE HAS BROUGHT SNOWFALL TO COASTAL LOCALES IN THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS WELL. REGARDLESS...WINTER STORM AND BLIZZARD
WARNINGS CURRENTLY BLANKET THE WESTERN U.S. AS A STRONG UPPER
TROUGH ADVANCES THROUGH THE REGION THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE
BIGGEST PLAYER IS A POWERFUL CLOSED LOW PUSHING AWAY FROM
WASHINGTON STATE WHICH WILL DRIVE ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR TO
THE COUNTRY. VERTICAL LIFT ACCOMPANYING THIS VORTEX WILL HELP
PRODUCE MODERATE SNOWFALL TO THE INTERIOR WEST WITH THE
TETONS...WASATCH...SAN JUANS...AMONG OTHERS GETTING IN ON THE
ACTION THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ONCE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES
OUT INTO THE GREAT PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...FRIGID AIR WILL
FILL THE WESTERN STATES WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY STRUGGLING TO GET
OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND UPPER
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE EFFECTS WILL EVEN MORE NOTICEABLE AT NIGHT
AS LOWS PLUMMET DOWN WELL INTO THE NEGATIVE TEENS WITH EVEN SOME
READINGS APPROACHING -20 OVER WESTERN MONTANA. AS THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY RACES OFF TO THE EAST...THE COLD AIR WILL EVENTUALLY
REACH THE CENTRAL U.S. AS 20S LURK BEHIND THE FRONT AND 60S AND
70S REMAIN DOWNSTREAM.

AN UPPER DISTURBANCE TREKING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION IS BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ALONG ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH IN NATURE AS THE BEST UPPER
FORCING RACES OFF TOWARD CANADA. THERE WILL BE A DEFINITE CHANGE
IN THE WEATHER AS 60S ALONG THE EAST COAST ARE REPLACED WITH 50S
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...EVEN COLDER AIR LURKS OFF TO
THE WEST AS THE POTENT WESTERN SYSTEM ADVANCES INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN THE
MOISTURE DRAWN UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL ASSIST IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT
WITH THE INTENSITY PICKING UP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.




Also of note is the temp gradiant across TX this morning. This is not due to the Arctic Boundary, but the first shortwave induced Pacific Front that will waffle across the State today/tomorrow before the much stronger Arctic Front heads S...



The Arctic Boundary is currently taking shape up near MT ID and WA behind a potent Upper Air feature that will head S and E into the Intermountain West as the day wears on...

[wxman57]

I am heading to Austin on Thursday for the Texas-Texas A&M game, which starts at 7 PM on Thursday (Hook Em Horns)...what should I expect as far as temps go that evening. Weather Underground currently calls for a high of 63, which flies in the face of what most of yall are saying regarding the weather.

Any info would be much appreciated...thanks...

First of all, Gig 'em, Ags!

It's a fairly straightforward forecast. The cold front will move through by late morning Thursday, dropping temps like a rock. By game time, the temperature should be in the low 40s with a strong northerly wind (15-25 mph and gusty). Rain should have ended by the start of the game, so just cold and windy.

I'll be watching from the comfort of my living room. Better dress warmly!

Here's a meteogram for Austin:

[natlib]

San Angelo NWS now hinting at a slight chance of overrunning precip on Thanksgiving:

... Much colder temperatures expected for Thanksgiving day...

A strong cold front will blast through west central Texas
Wednesday night and early Thursday resulting in a significant cool
down for Thanksgiving. Following several days with high
temperatures near 80 degrees... this front will seem especially
cold with forecast temperatures on the order of 35 degrees
colder. High temperatures on Thursday are forecast to remain near
40 degrees across the Big Country... in the mid 40s across the
Concho Valley and in lower 50s along the Interstate 10 corridor.

In addition to these much colder temperatures... north winds of 15
to 25 mph will result in wind chill values ranging from 30 to 35
degrees by mid afternoon across much of the area. A few locations
have not experienced a hard freeze yet this fall but all areas are
expected to see temperatures fall into the low to mid 20s by
Friday morning. This freeze will harm or kill any sensitive
vegetation that is left unprotected.

Rain showers will be possible ahead of the cold front... mainly
Wednesday night along and east of Highway 277. A few showers may
linger through early afternoon on Thursday across the Northwest
Hill country. However... rainfall amounts are expected to remain
light.

[HockeyTx82]

I have noticed that the snow amount on the ground has grown quite a bit over the last few days.

http://espcgis.nesdis.noaa.gov/website/ ... viewer.htm

How much will this impact the cold if at all in terms of getting down here?

Also has anyone else noticed the mess that the Rocky Mountains and North West are going through weather wise? Almost entire states are under a blizzard warning!!!!!!

http://www.weather.gov/

[wxman57]

I have noticed that the snow amount on the ground has grown quite a bit over the last few days.

http://espcgis.nesdis.noaa.gov/website/ ... viewer.htm

How much will this impact the cold if at all in terms of getting down here?

Also has anyone else noticed the mess that the Rocky Mountains and North West are going through weather wise? Almost entire states are under a blizzard warning!!!!!!

http://www.weather.gov/

The additional snow will help to slow modification of the cold air a bit, but it's just a cold front. No ice with it in NE or SE TX. Not much there to cause post-frontal precip, too.

[Ntxw]

As soon as that storm swings across we can watch the cold come down, looks like it's holding along the Canadian border currently.

[wxman57]

Still looks cold, windy but dry for the Austin area tomorrow evening (A&M vs. UT):

[Portastorm]

The 12z GFS coming in a wee bit colder for AUS than the 0z. Now has a progged low of 29 degrees Saturday morning at 6 am. Yeah, once the front blows through Thanksgiving evening ... it's gonna start feeling pretty darn cold at DKR. It may feel even colder for us Longhorn faithful if the Aggies continue their impressive win streak.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

i'll be there, row 3 35 yd line......freezing my tail off. Winter kind of broke me in a bit last weekend in Vegas with temps in the 40's and 40 MPH gusts. I think ill be fine, hope the game is good though.

[jasons2k]

I'm trying out Weathertap for awhile. Looks like a warm day with some spotty streamer showers:

[jasons2k]

Update from Jeff Lindner:

Powerful cold front will arrive across SE TX on Thanksgiving Day.

Very cold NW Canadian air mass is moving southward down the central plains and will enter N TX late tonight and then sweep rapidly across the state on Thursday. Ahead of this front, strong low pressure is supporting the advection of a very warm and humid air mass over the region off the western Gulf of Mexico with near to record highs expected today across most of SE TX. Air mass is capped with only a few "streamer" showers moving quickly from south to north with amounts mainly under .10 of an inch.

Front will arrive into the northern sections of SE TX around early afternoon Thursday and reach the metro areas around sunset and be off the coast around 900pm. Highs will reach the lower 80's prior to the front and then fall quickly into the 50's and 40's behind the boundary with strong NW winds. Best moisture will reside E of I-45 and only a thin line of showers/thunderstorms is expected right along the boundary. Best rain chances will be E of I-45 with chances lowest around Matagorda Bay where moisture will be weakest and capping the strongest.

Clouds should clear the area early Friday morning, but cold air advection will continue resulting in highs only in the mid 50's on Friday.

Clear skies, light winds, and very dry air mass will allow for near excellent cooling conditions on Friday night. First widespread freeze of the season is likely for much of the area with lows ranging from the upper 20's north of HWY 105 to around freezing for most other areas, except the beach. Some locations will be at or below freezing for 3-5 hours Saturday morning and proper precuations should be taken to protect tender tropical vegetation and citrus crops. This should effectivly end the growing season for the area.

Core of the cold dome will push fairly quickly eastward allowing for a fast turn around in southerly winds by late Saturday and a warming trend back into the mid to upper 60's by Sunday. Next strong front is due in early next week.

[natlib]

Feels more like Thanksgiving today. After being in the 80's the past two days, Turkey day has us in the 40's dropping to 20 tonight. Now I can decorate for Christmas!

[srainhoutx]

Well, the 12Z GFS continues to suggest a mighty chilly and even wintry pattern for parts of TX...

[iorange55]

Well, the 12Z GFS continues to suggest a mighty chilly and even wintry pattern for parts of TX...

Dang that 12z had too much turkey too.