Texas Winter 2014-2015

[Ralph's Weather]

Euro says empty the store shelves North Texas 3-5"wind driven

How far east does that extend? Is it I-30 focused or does it extend down to north of I-20?

[dhweather]

No change in thoughts for NTX, could be several inches of sleet then several inches of snow over it tonight. Hi resolution is really zoning in on Dallas, Collin, Rockwall counties as ground zero for some intense banding but it is an area wide event. Can FW issue wind advisories in tandem with WSW? I suspect some locales will experience near blizzard conditions in the wee hours when it switches over.

Given the variables in play, I suspect any possible upgrades to blizzard warning would be more of a nowcast thing.

[Ntxw]

No change in thoughts for NTX, could be several inches of sleet then several inches of snow over it tonight. Hi resolution is really zoning in on Dallas, Collin, Rockwall counties as ground zero for some intense banding but it is an area wide event. Can FW issue wind advisories in tandem with WSW? I suspect some locales will experience near blizzard conditions in the wee hours when it switches over.

Given the variables in play, I suspect any possible upgrades to blizzard warning would be more of a nowcast thing.

Would it count with sideways sleet?

[dhweather]

[dhweather]

No change in thoughts for NTX, could be several inches of sleet then several inches of snow over it tonight. Hi resolution is really zoning in on Dallas, Collin, Rockwall counties as ground zero for some intense banding but it is an area wide event. Can FW issue wind advisories in tandem with WSW? I suspect some locales will experience near blizzard conditions in the wee hours when it switches over.

Given the variables in play, I suspect any possible upgrades to blizzard warning would be more of a nowcast thing.

Would it count with sideways sleet?

That is a great question - gusts over 30 and moderate to heavy sleet - I would think visibility gets to near zero.

[Tejas89]

I believe FWD has a wind advisory up for roughy the same time frame as the WSW.

March comes in like a lion.

[downsouthman1]

http://s5.postimg.org/651bn0xhj/2015_03_04_12_20_29_pm.png

The yellow (my area) has the greatest threat of power outages, unfortunately. Not that I wish it upon anybody else, but...

[Texas Snowman]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1214 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS THROUGH
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH INCREASING NORTH WINDS AND GRADUALLY
FALLING TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT. ALL OF THE REGION IS STILL
ABOVE FREEZING BUT WE EXPECT OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES TO FALL
BELOW FREEZING WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND THE FREEZING LINE
WILL SLOWLY BUT STEADILY PROGRESS SOUTHEAST FROM THERE. THE
FREEZING LINE MAY NOT MAKE IT THROUGH OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK TOMORROW.

OVERALL...THE WINTER WEATHER EVENT IS EXPECTED TO UNFOLD VERY
SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS BEEN ADVERTISED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS BUT
SOME CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE:

1) THE WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXPANDED ANOTHER ROW OF
COUNTIES SOUTHEAST INCLUDING BELL COUNTY FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT ICING IN THIS AREA DUE TO POSSIBLE CONVECTION IN THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. IT IS POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE SLEET MAY ALSO OCCUR
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE WARNING FOR THESE COUNTIES WILL BEGIN AT
MIDNIGHT AND ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE UP TO 1/4 INCH AND/OR 1/2 INCH
SLEET.

2) THE PREVIOUS FORECAST MENTIONED AN AXIS OF HIGHER SNOW AND
SLEET TOTALS ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BUT THIS AXIS
HAS NOW BEEN SHIFTED SOUTHEAST ALONG A LINE FROM COMANCHE TO DFW
TO PARIS. THE REASON FOR THIS SHIFT WAS DUE TO GUIDANCE FROM
INCOMING HI-RES MODELS THAT SHOWS CONVECTIVE FEATURES AFFECTING
MAINLY THIS AREA AND LOCATIONS SOUTH. THUNDERSLEET WOULD LIKELY
RESULT IN QUICK ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AN INCH AND WILL SHOW AN
AVERAGE OF 2 INCHES OF SLEET...BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE HIGHER
AMOUNTS WITHIN THIS AREA. ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN LOWERED
IN THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES AND ARE TECHNICALLY BELOW WARNING
CRITERIA BUT WE WILL NOT CHANGE THE WARNING TO AN ADVISORY SINCE
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE CONVECTION WILL OCCUR
TONIGHT.

3) NEW GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES MAY NOT REACH FREEZING UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING AND IMPACTS
COULD BE FAIRLY MINOR AS A RESULT. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP THE
ADVISORY GOING AS AT LEAST THE TX TECH WRF SUGGESTS SOME
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS MAY AFFECT THIS AREA RESULTING IN HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN.

IN SUMMARY...EXPECT A WINTRY MIX TO GRADUALLY TRANSITION ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. WE EXPECT MOST OF
THE NORTHWESTERN 2/3RD WILL BE IMPACTED MAINLY BY SLEET BUT SOME
ICE AND SNOW IS ALSO POSSIBLE. ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST...IT LOOKS
LIKE FREEZING RAIN WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT WINTER WEATHER TYPE.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BEGINNING LATE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

IN ADDITION...STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.

82/JLD

&&

[Ralph's Weather]

SHV seems pretty dug in on their forecast and it does not sound like they will be expanding the warning at this time. From the looks of the above graphic it FWD may be increasing amounts just to my west as the point forecast shows .1" of ice and <1" of sleet and snow which does not sound the description for the purple area.

[downsouthman1]

I read it a few minutes ago. I found it funny how they mentioned Bell County specifically after I posted just earlier today that Bell is often a forgotten County by FW NWS.

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

It is down to 37 now in Decatur/Denton/McKinney. Here it comes!

[wxman57]

12Z Euro has temps dropping below 32 in Austin by around 1am-2am and rising above 32 by 8am tomorrow. Basically, a freezing rain event with a chance of sleet as the precip tapers off between sunrise & noon tomorrow. Interesting that it has no freeze for any part of Harris County Thursday or Friday.

[Ralph's Weather]

12Z Euro has temps dropping below 32 by around 1am-2am and rising above 32 by 8am tomorrow. Basically, a freezing rain event with a chance of sleet as the precip tapers off between sunrise & noon tomorrow. Interesting that it has no freeze for any part of Harris County Thursday or Friday.

What location are you looking at on the Euro?

[TXdaddy217]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1046 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ENOUGH EVIDENCE HAS COME IN FROM THE LATEST MODELS TO ISSUE A
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE HILL COUNTRY AND METRO AUSTIN...AND A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE BALCONES ESCARPMENT AND ADJACENT
PLAINS FROM NEW BRAUNFELS TO SAN ANTONIO TO BRACKETTVILLE...FROM
MIDNIGHT TO NOON THURSDAY. IN SHORT...THE GENERAL FORECAST OF A
COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS
EVENING...ARCTIC AIR BEHIND THE FRONT...MID-LEVEL LIFT FROM AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND UPWARD MOTION FROM THE ENTRANCE
REGION TO A JET STREAK...ALL POINT TO MODERATE QPF OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THE PROFILE ABOVE THE NEAR-SURFACE ARCTIC DOME IS
CONVECTIVE AND MOIST...NOT ONLY INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MODERATE PRECIPITATION TONIGHT.
BANDING SEEN IN SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS IS CONCERNING
AS WELL...THUS THE DECISION TO ISSUE THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR
THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED FURTHER SOUTH TO U.S. 90...OR ALONG AND NORTH OF A
LINE FROM SCHULENBERG TO SAN ANTONIO TO BRACKETVILLE...BUT TOTAL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND THE PRECIPITATION FALLING AS RAIN FIRST
SHOULD LIMIT ICE ACCUMULATIONS. WHILE THE NEXT MAJOR FORECAST
UPDATE THIS AFTERNOON MAY HAVE MINOR ALTERATIONS FOR TIMING AND
AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION...WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE MAJOR CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST.

You Go Portastorm Hope ya get that snowfall this time.

[Tireman4]

12Z Euro has temps dropping below 32 by around 1am-2am and rising above 32 by 8am tomorrow. Basically, a freezing rain event with a chance of sleet as the precip tapers off between sunrise & noon tomorrow. Interesting that it has no freeze for any part of Harris County Thursday or Friday.

You are questioning the Euro .or is just an "this is interesting"....

[Shoshana]

It is down to 37 now in Decatur/Denton/McKinney. Here it comes!

68 here. Warmest it's been in a while.

[downsouthman1]

You Go Portastorm Hope ya get that snowfall this time.

This doesn't look much like a snow storm at all for any of us CTXers or south CTXers.

[SnowintheFalls]

Wichita Falls now reporting snow, with sustained winds at 26... gusts to 35.

This will not be the kind of storm to take a stroll in.

I work in WF and haven't seen any snow yet. It's been predominantly freezing rain with a little sleet mixed in.

Same here in Burkburnett. Just seeing freezing rain with some sleet mixed in. The truck is definitely glazed with ice but so far the roads are still just wet.

[SouthernMet]

Bowie- Graham line below freezing.

[dhweather]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1248 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...THE ONSET OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION AND THE
SUBSEQUENT DURATION AND AMOUNTS ARE THE FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST.

AT 18Z...THE FREEZING LINE WAS LOCATED NEAR THE RED RIVER...MOVING
STEADILY SOUTH TOWARDS NORTH TEXAS. THE SURFACE FREEZING LINE IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE DFW AREA AROUND 6 PM/00Z. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AT THAT TIME (LIKELY LIGHTER THAN IT IS NOW)
AND AS TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING SOME LIGHT ICE
ACCUMULATION ON ELEVATED SURFACES IS POSSIBLE. PLACED -FZRA IN THE
TAF AFTER 00Z AS A RESULT.

AS THE COLD AIR GETS DEEPER...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
CHANGE OVER TO SLEET. LIGHT SLEET IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR 4 TO
5 HOURS...WITH A PERIOD OF HIGHER INTENSITY THUNDERSLEET MIXED IN.
THE MOST LIKELY WINDOW FOR THUNDERSLEET IN THE DFW AREA APPEARS TO
BE RIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT BASED ON HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL
GUIDANCE...SO PLACED THUNDERSLEET IN THE FORECAST FROM 05-07Z.
THIS WILL OBVIOUSLY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED BASED ON RADAR TRENDS
LATER THIS EVENING.

WHENEVER THUNDERSLEET OCCURS...THIS IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE BULK
OF THE SLEET ACCUMULATIONS TO OCCUR. ONE HALF TO ONE INCH OF SLEET
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE DFW AREA...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS VERY LIKELY
IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS/THUNDERSLEET THAT MOVE OVER THE AREA. WITHIN
THUNDERSTORMS...SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE HALF INCH PER HOUR ARE
LIKELY. COLD AIR IS LIKELY TO GET DEEP ENOUGH TO TRANSITION OVER
TO SNOW IN THE 2-3 AM TIMEFRAME. PRECIPITATION IS ALSO EXPECTED
TO BE DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY BY THAT TIME AS WELL. WENT AHEAD
WITH A COUPLE OF HOURS OF LIGHT SNOW AFTER 2 AM IN THE TAFS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY END ACROSS NORTH TEXAS BEFORE SUNRISE.
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING UNTIL
NOON ON THURSDAY. ANY SNOW/SLEET/ICE ON THE ROAD OR RUNWAYS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A RESULT.

CAVANAUGH